Aotearoa Summary. 21 January 2018 - 28 January 2018

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Magnitude 4 risk locations are Southern Fiordland, Te Anau, Offshore Milford Sound, Lower Hollyford River, Rolleston, Christchurch, Cheviot, Culverden, Kaikoura, Seaward Kaikouras, South of St Arnaud, St Arnaud, Cape Campbell, Northeast of Seddon, Northern Cook Strait, Upper Hutt, Levin, Taumarunui, Tokoroa, Tauranga, North of Tauranga, Rotorua, Opotiki, East Cape.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 21 January 10.30pm
Cashmere 3.1 8.48am
North of East Cape 3.6 3.40pm
Local quakes were quiet on 21 January.
Solar quake driving conditions were present but very mild for most of the day.
A slight solar pickup tonight could drive isolated Mag 4 quakes on 22 January.
Bay of Plenty is higher risk.
A small quake peak is possible late 24 January.

Update. 22 January 11.30pm
22 January.
Western Taranaki Bight 4.1 2.41am
Tokoroa 3.8 6.00am
Opotiki 3.5 7.22pm
Isolated quakes were just at the Mag 4 threshold on 22 January.
The Western Taranaki Bight 4.1 frustratingly gives good location success to the previous forecast.
Quakes are more active in Bay of Plenty.
Christchurch is quiet.
Weak solar quake driving conditions on 22 January seem likely to continue on 23 January.
Very isolated Mag 4 quakes are possible ahead of a possible mild quake pickup late 24 January.

Update. 24 January 1.30pm
23 January.
Heathcote 2.7 10.15am
Rolleston 2.0 3.27pm
Northeast of Waimarie 2.7 5.09pm
24 January.
South of Kermadecs 4.1 5.28am
No significant local action on 23-24 January.
No update was posted on 23 January...the Alaska 7.9 and other action bogged us down.
Local activity has picked up since the Alaska 7.9.
Solar conditions are present and weak on 24 January.
A slight solar pickup is possible late 24 January before fading away.
Quakes, if any, seem likely to be isolated.
All risk locations, including Fiordland are unchanged.

Update. 24 January 10.00pm
Local quakes were quiet on 24 January.
Solar conditions are now below quake driving level.
A brief solar pickup may occur tonight before conditions rapidly fall again on 25 January.
Isolated big quakes have defined the forecast period around the Pacific so far.
Isolated Mag 4 quakes could occur in New Zealand early on 25 January.
An update will hopefully be posted from Bali tomorrow night.

Summary.
21 January.
Cashmere 3.1 8.48am
North of East Cape 3.6 3.40pm
22 January.
Western Taranaki Bight 4.1 2.41am
Tokoroa 3.8 6.00am
Opotiki 3.5 7.22pm
23 January.
Heathcote 2.7 10.15am
Rolleston 2.0 3.27pm
Northeast of Waimarie 2.7 5.09pm
24 January.
South of Kermadecs 4.1 5.28am
27 January.
Taranaki Bight 5.1 3.30pm
28 January.
South of Wellington 3.8 7.01pm
This forecast had some successes and some mistakes and ultimately very frustrating as the mistakes were avoidable.
Solar conditions arrived on cue but were mild.
Taranaki Bight was dropped from the previous forecast and proved to be a mistake.
Christchurch quakes fell away following a rare Mag 4 earlier.
Solar conditions fell away on 25 January and the forecast period ended.
The Poarangahau quake swarm on 27 January came outside a forecast period.
A decision to wait and see what happened rather than post a forecast was a mistake.
Taranaki Bight was obviously active.
The following South of Wellington 3.8 was at least near a forecast location from the previous forecast period.


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