Pacific Summary Updated. 21 January 2018 - 27 January 2018

Click to Enlarge
Magnitude 6 risk locations are Macquarie Island, Kermadec Islands, Southern Tonga, Bougainville, New Britain, Northern Sumatra, Central/Northern Kuril Islands, Offshore Vancouver Island, Offshore Oregon, Inland Atacama, Bolivia, Valparaiso, Hindu Kush.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Kadovar, Agung, Sinabung, Mayon, Kliuchevskoi, Fuego, Sierra Negra, Reventador.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 21 January 10.30pm
21 January.
Atacama 6.3 2.06pm
Eruption Sakurajima.
Very mild quake driving conditions resulted in a relatively quiet Pacific quake day.
Good location success with the biggest quake.
Despite Sakurajima erupting regularly in the last forecast period, the volcano was cleverly excluded from this forecast, a forecast mistake.
More volcano data may arrive later.
Solar quake driving conditions have picked up slightly tonight.
Isolated Mag 6 quakes and volcanic eruptions are possible on 22 January.
A small quake peak is possible late 24 January.

Update. 22 January 11.30pm
21 January.
Eruption Mayon, Kadovar, Ebeko.
The Western Pacific is hot.
Big eruption at Mayon and other volcanoes also pushing up lava.
Pacific quakes were quiet, action today was in Chilean forecast locations but well under Mag 6.
Solar quake and eruption driving conditions continued today but were weak.
Similar weak conditions seem likely on 23 January ahead of a mild pickup late 24 January.
More Western Pacific eruptions seem possible next days.
Chile, Bolivia are higher risk for Mag 6 quakes.

Update. 24 January 2.00pm
23 January.
Western Java 6.0 7.34pm
Gulf of Alaska 7.9 10.31pm
Eruption Agung, Sinabung.
Big Pacific and Indonesian action on 23 January.
Moderate solar conditions changed suddenly about half an hour before the Alaska 7.9.
The quake was felt in Anchorage and prompted a tsunami alert for about an hour but luckily none came.
The Java 6.0 was strongly felt in Jakarta, prompting people to evacuate buildings but no major damage.
Agung let off four explosions.
Heavy rain events in Paris and Denpasar.
Tokyo had heavy snow but not a record.
Solar condiitons are just above the quake threshold on 24 January.
A possible slight solar pickup is due anytime and could create some late quake action before conditions fade away.

Update. 24 January 10.30pm
24 January.
Eruption Kuratsu -Shirane.
Quakes were quiet in the Pacific after yesterdays big rumble.
Solar conditions faded to below the quake threshold today but a late short burst of solar activity may arrive tonight. Confidence=low.
A quake pickup may occur early 25 January before conditions fade away.
Santa Cruz Islands, Southeastern Japan, Kyushu are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
The period has been very volcanic.
Eruptions seem possible if the forecasted solar conditions arrive.
An update will hopefully be posted from Bali tomorrow.

21 January.
Atacama 6.3 2.06pm
Eruption Sakurajima, Mayon, Kadovar, Ebeko.
23 January.
Western Java 6.0 7.34pm
Gulf of Alaska 7.9 10.31pm
Eruption Agung, Sinabung.
24 January.
Eruption Kuratsu -Shirane.
24 January.
Eruption Kuratsu -Shirane.
Northeastern Honshu 6.2 11.51pm
25 January.
Nicobar Islands 5.9 2.15pm
East of Kamchatka Peninsula 6.2 3.10pm
Southwest of Los Angeles 4.0 11.09pm
Eruption Mayon, Agung, Pacaya.
26 January.
Offshore Oregon 5.8, 5.0 5.39am
The Pacific and Indonesia rumbled heavily during the period.
The forecast missed the big Alaska 7.9 although other locations worked.
Quakes were slow to get going following the arrival of solar conditions but the only quake of any size, the Atacama 6.3 was right in the zone.
Volcanoes went off early in the period.
The eruption of Mayon was spectacular, 500 meter high lava fountains and pyroclastic flows.
The Western Java 6.0 was too far south to be a location success but continued the big Indonesian rumble along with the eruptions of Agung and Sinabung.
The Gulf of Alaska 7.9 prompted a tsunami alert but luckily none came.
The addition of Southeastern Honshu to risk locations will keep the sceptics guessing.
The Northeastern Honshu 6.2 followed soon after the forecast update and was just outside the SE Honshu location.
The low confidence outlook for a late solar pickup worked.
The pickup was stronger than expected and drove another burst of quakes with mixed location success.
Solar conditions remain slightly elevated but fading late on 26 January and could still drive a very late big quake or eruption.

Summary Update.
27 January.
Bismarck Sea 6.0 11.47am
A very late quake has occurred not far from active volcano Kadovar.
The cluttered summary map is good indication of a very active forecast period.

Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2020