Aotearoa Summary. 1 February 2018

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Magnitude 5 risk locations are Central Taranaki Bight, South of Wellington.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Doubtful Sound, Lower Hollyford River, Cascade River, Haast, Culverden, Kaikoura, Seaward Kaikouras, Awatere Valley, Murchison, Seddon, Cape Campbell, East of Cape Campbell, Northern Cook Strait, North of D'Urville Island, D'Urville Island, Levin, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Porangahau, Waipukurau, East Cape, Opotiki.
Volcanoes quiet.
Forecast confidence=low.

Update. 29 January 5.00pm
Northeast of Seddon 4.1 12.56pm
Good early location success.
South of Taranaki is added to Mag 4 risk locations.
The forecast period is extended to 30 January.
Lunar influence may center quakes around low tide.
Low tide Cook Strait = 9.30pm, 10.00am.
Forecast confidence remains low.

Update. 31 January 2.00am
Local quakes were quiet on 30/31 January.
Low confidence is justified.
The possible non arrival of solar conditions on 30 January was one reason for low confidence.
Solar conditions are quiet.
Solar conditions are expected on 31 January but may be weak.
Strong supermoon conditions are present on 31 January but are usually only a solar modulating factor therefore require solar conditions to have any effect on quakes.
The forecast period is extended to 31 January.
Forecast confidence=low.
Pacific quakes and eruptions are quiet.
No Pacific forecast is offered. Tonga, New Zealand seem possible locations. Volcanoes may become active.
We meet our guide Ikomang Giri at the temple on the slopes of Agung tomorrow.
Ikomang will tell us what happens next when we get there.
The impressively steep volcano was quiet today.

Update. 31 January 12.00pm
Quakes are quiet.
No sign of any solar conditions.
Without solar conditions quakes are unlikely and the forecast will be heading for the rubbish bin.
We are getting a lot of views on the quakestorm.co.nz archive. Be calm. The forecast is low confidence.
We're heading off for Agung today so the forecast is unlikely to be updated for a day or more.

Update. 1 February 2.30am
Local quakes were quiet on 31 January.
Solar quake driving conditions are here.
Moderate conditions are building tonight.
The forecast period is extended to 1 February.
South of Murchison/Maruia Valley is added to Mag 4 risk locations.
Lunar modulation may center quakes around low tide.
Low tide Cook Strait=6.00am, 7.00pm.
Afghanistan 6.1 8.07pm has come with the solar pickup.
Cyclone Fehi is forecast to cross Fiordland and South Westland today.
The storm may bring more rain than forecasted by standard meterorologists.

Summary.
This forecast was a complete flop.
Solar conditions never showed up with any strength for any length of time.
The principle that lunar conditions have no effect without solar conditions is shown once again.
The 29 January Seddon 4.1 was a residual quake from the previous quake sequence, featuring the widely felt27 January Taranaki Bight 5.1
The supermoon did seem to have weather effects.
Cyclone Fehi crossed New Zealand with stronger effect than meteorologists expected, exacerbated by a very high tide.
The forecasters trip to Agung in Bali coincided with the period.
Stronger solar conditions than forecasted could have produced an ash eruption at Agung but the volcano was quiet through the period.







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