Pacific Summary. 16 February 2018 - 27 February 2018

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Magnitude 6 risk locations are Macquarie Island, Fiji, Northern Vanuatu, Solomon Islands, Bismarck Sea, Papua, New Guinea, Banda Sea, Northern Sumatra, Eastern Himalayas, Marianas Islands, Taiwan, Okinawa, Kyushu, Offshore Eastern Honshu, Offshore Vancouver Island, Gulf of California, Guerrero, Hmalayas.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Aoba, Kadovar, Mayon, Ebeko, Karymsky.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 17 February 10.30pm
16 February.
Eruption Aoba.
17 February.
Mexico, Oaxaca/Guerrero border 7.2 12.39pm
Solar conditions arrived on cue late 15 February.
Quakes remained below Mag 6 on 16 February.
Vulcanologists at Vanuatu report a "low level" eruption is ongoing at Aoba.
Forecast updates for Aotearoa and Pacific weren't posted on 16 February.
Regardless, solar conditions remained steady on 17 February and a big Pacific quake has followed.
The Mexico 7.2 is the fourth Pacific Mag 7 in just a few weeks and the second Mag 7 location success following the 14 January Peru 7.3.
Solar conditions are likely to remain steady on 18 February.
Isolated Mag 6 quakes are possible.

Update. 19 February 12.00am
17 February.
Eruption Mayon.
18 February.
Eruption Ebeko.
Pacific quakes went quiet following the Mexico 7.2.
Good volcano location success.
The Mexico 7.2 never claimed a life but a military helicopter carrying the local Governor accidentally landed on a van, killing 14 people.
Solar quake and eruption driving conditions are moderately strong and steady late on 18 February.
Isolated Mag 6 quakes are possible on 19 February.
The forecast period is likely to continue until late 21 February when a quake peak may occur before solar conditions fade away.

Update. 20 February 10.30am
18 February.
Eruption Etna, Sakurajima, Sinabung.
19 February.
Oaxaca/Mexico 5.9 7.57pm
Pacific quakes were subdued on 19 February with the exception of a large aftershock in Mexico.
Volcanoes are active.
Sinabung has let go a very big eruption into the stratosphere.
Etna is active. Forecasts for Etna are not possible, seismologists have blocked data.
Moderate solar conditions continue on 20 February.
Quakes may be in a building phase towards a peak on 22 February before fading away.
Isolated Mag 6 quakes are possible on 20 February.

Update. 21 February 3.30pm
Pacific quakes were below Mag 6 on 20/21 February.
Volcanoes are active.
The 18 February Sinabung eruption was the biggest for a long time, blowing into the stratosphere, pyroclastic flows and ashfall up to 100km away.
Solar conditions are weakening steadily and are now just at the quake driving threshold.
An isolated Mag 6 quake is possible 21 February.
A brief solar pickup is possible 22 February. Confidence=low.
Pacific quakes and eruptions may increase on 22 February before fading away as the forecast period ends.
Atacama, South of Atacama, Molucca Sea are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Agung is added to volcanoes.

Summary.
16 February.
Eruption Aoba.
17 February.
Mexico, Oaxaca/Guerrero border 7.2 12.39pm
Eruption Mayon.
18 February.
Eruption Ebeko, Etna, Sakurajima, Sinabung.
19 February.
Oaxaca/Mexico 5.9 7.57pm
Eruption Sinabung, Mayon.
21 February.
Eruption Mayon.
23 February.
Eruption Mayon, Ebeko, Aoba.
25 February.
Eruption Sinabung.
26 February.
Papua New Guinea 7.5 6.44am
Papua New Guinea 6.0 9.26pm
Eruption Mayon
27 February.
Ceram Sea 6.1 2.34am
Papua New Guinea 6.3 4.18am
A forecast of two halves, this forecast had perfect early success, hitting the Mexico 7.2.
The forecast was then dropped too early, big quakes in risk locations came later.
Solar quake driving conditions arrived on cue, quakes were initially slow to respond.
The 17 February Mexico 7.2 gave successive Mag 7 forecast success following the 14 January Peru 7.3.
Quakes were otherwise less active at the expense of volcanos which were very active.
Multiple eruptions, including a very big Sinabung eruption 18 February marked the following days.
Mayon erupted almost daily.
Vanuatu volcano Aoba resumed low level ash eruptive activity during the period.
Solar conditions fell on 21 February but remained steady and on the quake threshold for several more days, defeating the forecast outlook for fading conditions with slight peaks.
Volcanic eruptions prevailed for several days.
Sinabung gave off a second big blast in a week on 25 February.
The forecast was dropped on 23 February after too many extensions decreased timing accuracy.
A new forecast or low confidence forecast extension was a better option than no forecast in the following days as moderate solar conditions lingered.
The Aotearoa forecast noted potential for a buildup and this occurred with the 26 February Papua New Guinea 7.5, 27 February Ceram Sea 6.1 and a small local burst of quakes.
The dropped forecast was chasing quakes in both areas...forecasting can never be an exact science.
A new quake period has begun on 27 February.
A Pacific forecast is being processed.

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