Aotearoa Summary. 27 February 2018 - 2 March 2018

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Forecast. 27-28 February, 2018.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Manapouri, Doubtful Sound, Hollyford River, Culverden, Murchison, South of St Arnaud, Tapuaenuku, Mid Clarence River, Seaward Kaikouras, Seddon, Cape Campbell, Northeast of Seddon, Northern Cook Strait, Northwest of D'Urville Island, West of Levin, Atiwhakatu Stream, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Porangahau, Wairoa, East Cape, Taumarunui, Tokoroa.
Tapuaenuku is higher risk.
Volcanoes quiet.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 1 March 8.30pm
28 February.
Wairoa 3.5 9.41am
1 March.
New Plymouth 3.5 1.49am
North of East Cape 3.6 6.16pm
Solar conditions arrived on cue, weakening quickly but remaining just on the quake driving threshold.
Quakes have consequently been below Mag 4 with some location success.
Solar conditions look set to linger another day before falling below the quake threshold.
A slight buildup could be underway.
Isolated Mag 4 quakes are possible on 2 March.

Update. 2 March 10.30pm
2 March.
Southwest of Makara 3.7 2.44pm
The quake period has probably ended.
The minor quake peak the forecast was looking for came mid afternoon in New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and Banda Sea.
The period has been moderate with quakes not reaching Mag 4.
The Cook Strait 3.7 was only slightly felt in Wellington.
The quake was a little south of the Kapiti/Mana risk location.

Summary.
28 February.
Wairoa 3.5 9.41am
1 March.
New Plymouth 3.5 1.49am
North of East Cape 3.6 6.16pm
2 March.
Southwest of Makara 3.7 2.44pm
This forecast did well to pick up a late burst of quakes, featuring the Cook Strait 3.7
Solar conditions arrived on cue and were mild during the period.
Quakes never got above Mag 4.
Quakes remain quiet 3-5 March.

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