Aotearoa Summary. 15 March 2018 - 22 March 2018

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Magnitude 4 risk locations are Manapouri, Lower Hollyford River, Upper Taramakau River, Conway River, Ohau Point, Upper Clarence River, Tapuaenuku, Waima River, Kekerengu, Murchison, Makara, Kapiti, South of Wanganui, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Porangahau, South of Taumarunui, Taumarunui, Tokoroa, Tauranga, Whakatane, Opotiki, East Cape.
Volcanoes quiet.
The forecast period is likely to be extended to a quake peak on 20 March.
Note. The 14 March 8.47pm Kaikoura 4.0 occurred as this forecast was being processed. More Mag 4 quakes are possible in this area during the forecast period.

Update. 15 March 1.10am
15 March.
Cambridge 4.5 12.50am
The Cambridge 4.5 has come at the same minute as this forecast was posted on Facebook/Roary Arbon.
Solar quake driving conditions have arrived and steadily building up.

Update. 16 March 11.00am
The forecast has got off to a hectic start in New Zealand.
Solar conditions were building as the forecast was being processed.
The forecast was posted too late, missing Kaikoura action and only just making it before the Cambridge 4.5 arrived.
Good location success, Western Bay of Plenty isn't often a risk location.
Despite mild but steady ongoing solar quake driving conditions, quakes went quiet following the early burst.
A Pacific quake buildup may be underway, a peak is possible 20 March.
Very isolated local Mag 4 quakes are possible on 16 March.

Update. 17 March 12.30pm
17 March.
Rotorua 3.6 4.24am
Local quakes are quiet.
Solar conditions remain steady.
A buildup still appears to be underway.
Very isolated local Mag 4 quakes are possible on 17 March.
A quake peak is possible on 20 March as the end of the forecast period approaches.

Update. 18 March 12.00pm
17 March.
Rotorua 3.6 4.24am
The biggest mainland quake was in a risk location.
Local and Pacific quakes are ominously quiet under the influence of steady solar quake driving conditions.
Aurora observers are posting amazing photos on internet (see Facebook/Roary Arbon).
A Pacific quake buildup appears to be underway.
A release is possible on 20 March.
Local seismic signal has increased today.
Motueka, South of Wellington, Waipukurau, White Island are added to Mag 4 risk locations.
Possibility Mag 5 New Zealand. Confidence=low.

Update. 19 March 11.30am
18 March.
Southwest of Snares Islands 4.8 6.32pm
Quake frequency was low on 18 March as conditions continued to wind up.
Mag 5 risk was justified as the quake period builds towards a possible release in the next couple of days.
Solar conditions remain very steady today as energy pours in.
Many spectacular aurora photos on internet.
The forecast period is extended to 19 March.
Possibility Mag 5 New Zealand. Confidence=low.

Update. 19 March 9.30am
Local and Pacific quakes are quiet.
Solar conditions are weakening as the end of the quake period approaches.
A late isolated quake peak is possible 20 March.
Possibility Mag 5 New Zealand. Confidence=low.

Update. 21 March 1.00pm
19 March.
Southwest of Snares Islands 4.8 6.32pm
Solar conditions are now declining as the forecast period closes in New Zealand.
Biggest local quake just north of Manapouri risk location.
Quakes are lagging behind the strong solar conditions last few days so a late isolated quake is still possible.
The forecast period is extended to 21 March.
Possibility Mag 5 New Zealand. Confidence=low.

Summary.
15 March.
Cambridge 4.5 12.50am
17 March.
Rotorua 3.6 4.24am
18 March.
South of Kermadecs 4.2 4.29am
19 March.
Lake Taupo 3.6 5.29pm
Southwest of Snares Islands 4.8 6.32pm
21 March.
Southwest Arm Te Anau 3.8 12.48am
Northern Seaward Kaikouras 3.7 10.56pm
22 March.
East Cape 3.6 12.39am
Murchison 3.6 2.26pm
The forecast period began on cue with the Cambridge 4.5, excellent location success in seldom forecasted West Bay of Plenty.
The 14 March 8.47pm Kaikoura 4.0 occurred as this forecast was being processed and isn't included on the summary map. More Kaikoura action later in the period is marked on the map.
Quakes generally were slightly below Mag 4 during the period.
All Mag 3.6 quakes and above in the period are plotted on the map.
The 18 March outlook for possible Mag 5 was justified on 19 March and the Southwest of Snares 4.8.
The outlook for a new peak on 20 March as the forecast period ended was justified, action came early on 21 March.
A late Mag 3 cluster of quakes 21/22 March gave perfect location success, including low confidence location Murchison.
Solar conditions have faded until 26 March when a new forecast period begins.
Pacific quakes were generally too quiet for the strong solar driving conditions during the period.
An extended low confidence Pacific forecast continues until 26 March to try and cover this lack of earlier action.
The 2018 Pacific Mag 7 quake spell may continue.






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