Pacific Summary Updated. 15 March 2018 - 26 March 2018
Volcanic activity may increase. Aoba, Kadovar, Sinabung, Mayon, Sakurajima, Kirishima, Sierra Negra. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Update. 16 March 10.30am 15 March. Eruption Kirishima, Sakurajima, Manaro. Pacific quakes were quiet. The low level ash eruption of Manaro continues and two neighbouring Kyushu volcanoes. Moderate solar conditions arrived on cue. Quakes haven't followed. A slow buildup may be underway. Solar conditions are steady and likely to reach a peak on 20 March. Isolated Mag 6 quakes are possible 16 March. The Pacific has been in a Mag 7 quake spell in 2018 which may continue during the period. Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Confidence=low. Update. 18 March 11.30am Pacific quakes and eruptions are quiet. Moderate solar quake driving conditions continue. A buildup toward a quake release appears to be underway. A quake peak seems possible on 20 March. Atacama, Valparaiso, Western New Britain, Celebes Sea are added to Mag 6 risk locations. Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Confidence=low. Update. 19 March 12.30pm 18 March. Eruption Sakurajima, Manaro. Continuing eruptions at Western Pacific volcanoes. Pacific quakes are ominously quiet. Solar quake and eruption conditions continued steadily through 18 March and are slightly stronger and steady on 19 March. A buildup could still be underway. A quake peak on 20 March is possible. Guatemala is added to Mag 6 risk locations. Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Confidence=low. Update. 21 March 1.30pm 20 March. Eruption Sakurajima, Ebeko. Moderate eruptions continue at several Western Pacific volcanoes. Quakes remain ominously quiet. Solar conditions are fading. Strong solar conditions during the period haven't produced any following quakes. Similar conditions during the long 16-21 February forecast period netted the 17 February Mexico 7.2 but the forecast was closed too early and the 26 February Papua New Guinea Highlands 7.5 fell perfectly into a major risk location but was well outside time parameters. The forecast period is extended to 21 March and may be extended further. Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Confidence=low. Update. 22 March 12.00pm Pacific quakes are quiet. Low level eruptions continue at Sakurajima, Manaro, Mayon, Kirishima. Solar quake driving conditions have faded away. Similar weak solar conditions for several days prior to the devastating 26 February Papua New Guinea Highlands 7.5 led to that forecast to be dropped too early. The big quake ate up the forecast and a decision was made that it was better in future to drop to a lower level forecast than not to offer a forecast. The forecast period is extended to 26 March. Northern Ecuador is added to Mag 6 risk locations. Very isolated Mag 6 or Mag 7 quakes are possible. Confidence=low. A new quake period begins on 26 March, a new forecast will be posted then. Significant winter weather has powered up with the solar conditions during the period in Europe, Northern Africa, Northeast USA. Spring in the Northern Hemisphere is delayed by at least two weeks. Major deluges in New South Wales, Brazil and many other places. Summary. 15 March. Eruption Kirishima, Sakurajima, Manaro. 18 March. Eruption Sakurajima, Manaro. 20 March. Eruption Sakurajima, Ebeko. 22 March. Eruption Suwanosejima. 23 March. Eruption Mayon. 25 March. East New Britain 6.3 12.23am Indian Ocean 6.3 8.58am Solar quake driving conditions arrived on cue but despite remaining steady and strong for several days, quakes never really followed. Steady daily eruptions from several Western Pacific volcanoes, including three closely spaced Japanese volcanoes. The 22 March update stretched out the time parameters for the period and came up with a result for what it is worth on 25 March with two clustered quakes and some location success. A new quake period begins midday 26 March. Southwest Pacific seems a likely risk location. Summary Update. 26 March 10.30am 26 March. Banda Sea 6.4 9.14am Solar quake driving conditions are here. A forecast is being processed. The Banda Sea 6.4 is plotted onto the 15-26 March map but could equally be plotted onto the new 26-27 March map. Good location success. More quake action in Banda Sea and Southwest Pacific seems possible during the new period. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
