Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 1 April 2018 - 9 April 2018

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Forecast. 26-27 March, 2018.
Magnitude 6 risk locations are Kermadec Islands, Southern Tonga, South of Fiji, Vanuatu, Makira, Bougainville, New Britain, Papua New Guinea Highlands, Papua, Banda Sea, Molucca Sea, Southeast of Honshu, Southern Ecuador, Atacama, Argentina, Vallenar, North of Valparaiso.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Manaro, Kadovar, Sinabung, Mayon, Suwanosejima, Kirishima, Sakurajima.
Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Southwest Pacific is higher risk. Mag 7 confidence=low.

Update. 27 March 1.30pm
26 March.
New Britain 6.6 10.51pm
Eruption Suwanosejima.
Big quakes, spaced apart could be the new Little Ice Age quake pattern.
The New Britain 6.6 could give justification to the Southwest Pacific Mag 7 outlook.
Isolated Mag 6/7 quakes are still possible as the period progresses.
The period is likely to be extended to 28 March, solar conditions should then fade away.

Update. 28 March 11.30am
27 March.
Eruption Sakurajima, Aoba, Kadovar.
Several Pacific volcanoes are in daily moderate eruption.
Pacific quakes were quiet on 27 March.
Solar conditions were steady on 27 March.
The forecast period is extended to 28 March.
Northern Sumatra, Nicobar Islands, Andaman Islands, Southern Myanmar are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Quakes, if any, are likely to be isolated.
Solar conditions are slowly starting to fade, the period is closing.

Update. 30 March 12.00pm
27 March.
Eruption Ebeko.
30 March.
New Britain 6.9 10.25am
This forecast is updated after the 30 March New Britain 6.9.
The New Britain 6.9 is in the same location as the 26 March New Britain 6.6.
The Aotearoa forecast summary offered a casual update to the Pacific forecast. ...A slight solar peak late 30 March may affect Pacific equatorial regions with isolated quakes. Local action, if any, seems likely to be below Mag 4.
Solar quake driving conditions are steadily rising today as a slight solar peak approaches.
More Mag 6 quakes, including New Britain are possible on 30 March.
Northern Sumatra, Nicobar Islands are higher risk.
Western Himalayas are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
The original map is retained, risk locations haven't changed much during the period.
The Pacific Mag 7 2018 quake spell continues.
Quake and volcanic activity in Eastern Papua New Guinea/Bismarck Sea/New Britain region on such a sustained level over several months has never before been observed at this Service.

Update. 2 April 9.30pm
30 March.
Lake Te Anau 3.8 4.50pm
2 April.
Pangai/ Tonga 5.3 1.50pm
Louisville Ridge/South of Tonga 6.1 5.57pm
Eruption Sakurajima, Suwanose jima, Aoba.
The 30 March minor solar peak arrived early 30 March.
The second big quake in a few days at New Britain came along with some smaller New Zealand action later in the day.
Solar conditions have run just below the quake threshold since the peak, increasing the possibility for ongoing isolated Pacific quakes.
Isolated quake action in risk locations today north of New Zealand.
Very isolated Pacific Mag 6 quakes are possible 3-9 March.
Risk locations are unchanged.
Southwest Pacific remains higher risk.
A new forecast period begins 10 March.
A new map will be posted then.

Update. 3 April 11.30am
2 April.
Pangai/ Tonga 5.3 1.50pm
Louisville Ridge/South of Tonga 6.1 5.57pm
Eruption Sakurajima, Suwanose jima, Aoba.
The second big Pacific quake in just a few hours justifies the forecast extension, despite stretching out the time parameters.
The quake just north of the Argentina border was right in the zone.
The Pacific seems to be pulsing.
Despite weak solar conditions today another weaker equatorial quake pulse seems possible next few days ahead of a strong pickup on 10 March when new solar conditions are due to arrive.

Update. 3 April 11.30am
3 April.
Southern Bolivia 6.8 1.40am
The second big Pacific quake in just a few hours justifies the forecast extension, despite stretching out the time parameters.
The quake just north of the Argentina border was right in the zone.
The Pacific seems to be pulsing.
Despite weak solar conditions today another weaker equatorial quake pulse seems possible next few days ahead of a strong pickup on 10 March when new solar conditions are due to arrive.
Update. 6 April 10.30pm
4 April.
Eruption Piton de la Fournaise, Ebeko.
5 April.
Southern Philippines 5.9 3.53pm
South of Fiji 5.8 9.07pm
Eruption Kirishima, Sakurajima, Manaro.
6 April.
Northwestern New Guinea 5.5 7.48pm
A weak Pacific equatorial quake pulse arrived mid afternoon on 5 April.
Coincidentally, quakes in New Zealand occurred at the same time as the bigger equatorial quakes.
The one day eruption of Piton de la Fournaise was over before it started.
More action at Piton de la Fournaise seems possible after 10 April.
A significant eruption at Kirishima on 5 April follows several weeks of steady activity.
Indonesian volcano Sinabung is ominously quiet. No eruptions for a couple weeks...Indonesian quake action may unfold soon.
Volcanic activity tends to follow quakes, the later part of the forecast period is very volcanic.
The New Guinea 5.5 is the biggest quake on 6 April and good location success.
Quakes are easing on 6 April and may fade away ahead of a new quake period due on 10 April.
Easter weather in the Northern Hemisphere was cold, wet, snowy. The late Northern spring has now turned into a late, wet, cold spring.
Wetter, colder weather is just around the corner...watch out for the fluctuations. The heatwaves will make mainstream news headlines.

Summary.
26 March.
New Britain 6.6 10.51pm
Eruption Suwanosejima.
27 March.
Eruption Sakurajima, Aoba, Kadovar, Ebeko.
30 March.
New Britain 6.9 10.25am
2 April.
Pangai/ Tonga 5.3 1.50pm
Louisville Ridge/South of Tonga 6.1 5.57pm
Eruption Sakurajima, Suwanose jima, Aoba.
3 April.
Southern Bolivia 6.8 1.40am
4 April.
Eruption Piton de la Fournaise, Ebeko, Sinabung.
5 April.
Southern Philippines 5.9 3.53pm
South of Fiji 5.8 9.07pm
Eruption Kirishima, Sakurajima, Manaro.
6 April.
Northwestern New Guinea 5.5 7.48pm
Eruption Reventador.
7 April.
Papua New Guinea Highland 6.3 5.48pm
The forecast period was very long but locations never changed much and the biggest quakes plotted onto the map confirmed Southwest Pacific as the hotspot.
Mag 7 risk was probably justified during the period.
The New Britain 6.6, 6.9 double quake and the Bolivia 6.8 gave good location success and high Magnitude.
Pacific quakes on 5 April came at the same time as some lesser Aotearoa action, solar driven quake action is a global phenomenon.
Quakes gave way to eruptions as the period progressed.
Piton de la Fournaise had a one day eruption on 4 April. More action seems possible after 10 April.
Indonesian volcano Sinabung erupted also on 4 April after a couple of quiet weeks.
Eruptions at Sinabung are a normal daily occurrence for locals these days, the most affected areas were abandoned years ago.
Volcanoes were generally hot later in the period...eruptions tend to follow quakes.
Quakes and eventually volcanoes went quiet from 7 April.
March and April are very active months in 2018 and most years.
The extreme Northern Hemisphere winter and very late, cold start to spring seems to be treated by mainstream media as an anomaly despite three cold winters in a row.
Snowfall and temperature records are smashed and likely to be smashed again (along with summer heatwaves...watchout for the weather fluctuations) next year as the Little Ice Age rapidly advances.
A new forecast period begins 10 April.