Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 26 March 2018 - 28 March 2018

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Magnitude 4 risk locations are Manapouri, Southwest Te Anau, West of Culverden, Culverden, Northern Seaward Kaikouras, Tapuaenuku, West of Murchison, Murchison, South of Taranaki, Wanganui, Oteranga Bay, Makara, Kapiti, Atiwhakatu Stream, Porangahau, Waipukurau, Southwest of Taumarunui, Taumarunui, Tokoroa, West of Taupo, Cambridge, Tauranga, Motiti Island, East Cape.
Location confidence=low.

Update. 27 March 1.00pm
26 March.
Cambridge 3.2 10.58pm
27 March.
Maketu 3.7 7.05am
Moderate solar quake driving conditions picked up late 25 March.
Despite low location confidence, quakes have arrived in the infrequently forecasted Waikato/West Bay of Plenty.
Isolated Mag 4 quakes are possible 27 March.
The period is likely to be extended but may close on 29 March.

Update. 28 March. 12.00pm
27 March.
Eketahuna 3.8 8.10pm
28 March.
Big Bay 3.5 8.47am
Culverden 3.4 9.22am
West Arm Te Anau 3.8 9.30am
Local quakes are under Mag 4.
The biggest quakes are plotted onto the map.
A small hour long quake cluster this morning and not much other activity.
Solar quake driving conditions are weakening today as the end of the forecast period nears.
The forecast period is extended to 28 March.
Late, isolated Mag 4 quakes are possible.
Mag 5 seems unlikely.

Summary.
26 March.
Cambridge 3.2 10.58pm
27 March.
Maketu 3.7 7.05am
Eketahuna 3.8 8.10pm
28 March.
Big Bay 3.5 8.47am
Culverden 3.4 9.22am
West Arm Te Anau 3.8 9.30am
The addition of Waikato and Western Bay of Plenty and the separation of Dannevirke/ Eketahuna from Waipukurau lowered location confidence levels.
Moderate solar conditions arrived on cue.
Local quakes never made it to Mag 4, a late cluster on 28 March marked the end of the period as solar conditions faded away.
A slight solar peak late 30 March may affect Pacific equatorial regions with isolated quakes.
Local action, if any, seems likely to be below Mag 4.