Aotearoa Summary. 4 April 2018 - 9 April 2018

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Magnitude 4 risk locations are North of Manapouri, Upper Cascade River, Mount Cook to Lambert River, Culverden, South of Motueka, Northeastern Seaward Kaikouras, Tapuaenuku, Upper Waima River, D'Urville Island, Oteranga Bay, Mana, Levin.
Residual quakes, if any, may follow the 3 April South Island quake cluster.
Local quakes may follow equatorial quakes.
Forecast confidence=low.

Update. 6 April 1.30pm
4 April.
North of D'Urville Island 3.6 12.28am
5 April.
East Cape 3.7 8.51am
North of Karamea 4.6 3.39pm
East Cape 3.9 9.14pm
6 April.
Northwest of East Cape 4.4 12.18pm
Residual quakes on 5 April have followed the 3 April South Island quake swarm.
The push has come at the same time in New Zealand and the Pacific...big concurrent quakes Philippines and Fiji.
The North of Karamea 4.6 was only felt by a few possums in Golden Bay and not a location success despite the forecast heavily chasing western locations.
The local and Pacific pushes are getting smaller as the quake period slowly runs out of energy.
March/April are typically active quake and eruption months.
An isolated Mag 3/4 quake swarm is possible 6-9 April.
Quakes, if any, may follow equatorial Pacific quakes.
A new forecast period begins 10 April with new solar conditions.

Summary.
4 April.
North of D'Urville Island 3.6 12.28am
5 April.
East Cape 3.7 8.51am
North of Karamea 4.6 3.39pm
East Cape 3.9 9.14pm
6 April.
Northwest of East Cape 4.4 12.18pm
8 April.
Lake Grassmere 3.8 11.53am
Western quakes in remote Southern Alps location Upper Lambert River on 3 April were followed by the Northern West Coast 4.6 on 5 April.
Leaving out East Cape as a risk location was a mistake but did highlight the westerly risk locations.
Quakes slowly faded away as the period progressed.
The forecast period was an extension to the very long 26 March-3 April period, making for a very long overall period.
The concurrence of the 5 April quakes with big Pacific quakes is interesting and will keep the sceptics guessing.
March and April are typically active quake months and 2018 is proving to be no exception so far.
A new forecast period begins 10 April.







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