Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary Updated. 10 April 2018 - 17 April 2018

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Magnitude 5 risk location is Central Taranaki Bight.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Doubtful Sound, Manapouri, Te Anau, Lower Hollyford River, Big Bay, Cascade River, Lower Landsborough River, North of Mt Cook, Upper Lambert River, Culverden, Conway River, Ohau Point, Northern Seaward Kaikouras, Tapuaenuku, Waima River, Ward, Cape Campbell, Northeast of Seddon, South of Wellington, Makara, Mana, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, East Cape, Taumarunui, Tokoroa, Rotorua, Opotiki.
Volcanoes quiet.
The period is likely to be extended for several days.

Update. 10 April 12.30am
Northeast of East Cape 5.1 12.14am
Mag 5 has come to New Zealand early in the forecast period.
More Mag 5 action seems possible.

Update. 11 April 12.30am
10 April.
Offshore Northern Wairarapa 3.9 10.31pm
Solar quake driving conditions arrived on cue.
The Offshore Wairarapa 3.9 was concurrent with the 10.19pm Chile 6.2.
Isolated active periods look set to continue for several days.
The forecast period is extended to 11 April.
Possibility Mag 5/6 New Zealand. Mag 5 confidence=low.

Update. 12 April 1.30pm
11 April.
North of Waipukurau 3.6 8.30am
South of Kermadecs 5.0 8.34pm
12 April.
Conway River 3.7, 3.5 6.02am
Mag 5 action continues north of New Zealand.
Mainland quakes dropped below Mag 4 with good forecast location success on the biggest quakes.
Solar quake driving conditions are steady and likely to continue until at least 16 April.
Isolated quakes are possible on 12/13 April.
Possibility Mag 5 New Zealand.
Tornadoes have accompanied the arrival of solar conditions in Taranaki, National Park and Auckland.
The same solar conditions which drive earthquakes and eruptions also drive jetstreams and weather.

Update. 15 April 10.00pm
13 April.
North of Karamea 3.8 12.18pm
14 April.
North of East Cape 5.0 1.38am
Arrowsmith Range 3.8 3.15am
The outlook for Mag 5 is justified, East Cape northwards getting its third Mag 5 during the period.
No action in the Taranaki Bight Mag 5 risk location so far.
Quakes on the mainland have been steady and just below Mag 4 during the period with good location success.
The Arrowsmiths 3.8 is only a couple of days walk for a fast tramper from the 3 April Lambert River 4.8.
Solar quake driving conditions are very moderate during the period.
A slight quake pickup is possible 16 April as the forecast period closes.

Summary.
10 April.
Northeast of East Cape 5.1 12.14am
Offshore Northern Wairarapa 3.9 10.31pm
11 April.
North of Waipukurau 3.6 8.30am
South of Kermadecs 5.0 8.34pm
12 April.
Conway River 3.7, 3.5 6.02am
13 April.
North of Karamea 3.8 12.18pm
14 April.
North of East Cape 5.0 1.38am
Arrowsmith Range 3.8 3.15am
16 April.
Conway River 3.6 4.58am
Kaikoura 3.7 6.31am
The forecast period produced multiple Mag 5 quakes from East Cape north, justifying the Mag 5 outlook.
The forecasters pondered Mag 6 South of Kermadecs as the forecast period closed but solar conditions weakened fast and bigger quakes never came.
A moderate quake peak arrived early 16 April in Molucca Sea and New Zealand.
Moderate solar conditions then quickly faded.
Location success was good during the period.
Little Ice Age solar quake driving conditions have apparently helped improve forecast location success although timing has become more challenging.
Tornadoes in Taranaki, National Park and Auckland left locals shocked.
Parts of Auckland are without power nearly a week later due to 200km/h gusts in one location at least downing trees and power lines.
Solar driven jetstream shifts are responsible for the extreme weather fluctuations of the Little Ice Age.
A new quake period begins 21 April.

Summary Updated.
16 April.
Tapawera 4.4 11.01pm
17 April.
Upper Matukituki Valley 4.0 9.14pm
Late action has added substance to the 16 April quake peak.
No location success at Tapawera.
The forecast period has been closed too early in an effort to narrow time parameters.
The addition of extra southern Alpine Fault risk locations has been justified by the late Matukituki 4.0.
A new and possibly brief quake period begins 21 April.