Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 21 April 2018 - 25 April 2018

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Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of Kermadec Islands, Kermadec Islands, Northern Tonga, Fiji, South of Fiji, Bougainville, Eastern New Britain, Northern Sumatra, Northern Myanmar, Eastern Honshu, Colima, Guerrero, Inland Oaxaca, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Titicaca, Atacama, Vallenar, Iran, Red Sea.
Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Mag 7 confidence=low.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Pu'u O'o, Piton de la Fournaise, Manaro, Sinabung, Kirishima, Sakurajima, Suwanosejima, Ebeko, Ibu, Fuego, Pacaya, Etna.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 22 April 9.30pm
22 April.
Southeast Indian Ocean 5.8 7.44am
Eruption Ebeko, Sakurajima, Kirishima.
The period has begun on cue with a heavy burst of solar action.
Auroras were observed as far north as Wellington in the Southern Hemisphere.
Quakes have been relatively quiet, indicating the period may be going volcanic.
Solar conditions have faded today.
The 2018 Pacific Mag 7 period may be over.
The period is very volcanic so far.
All eyes at this Service are turned towards the little green flag in the middle of the Pacific.
Pu'u O'o is expanding fast.
The lava lake at nearby Kilauea rose to 10 meters below the inner crater rim during the last forecast period, fell to 25 meters and is back up to 10 meters below the rim today and rising.
Hawaiian vulcanologists are warning of an eruption at Pu'u O'o anytime.
The vulcanologists aren't warning of any other eruptions although eruptions of Kilauea and Mauna Loa seem possible in the next few weeks or months.
Piton de la Fournaise in the Indian Ocean is also very inflated and a forecast location.
Japanese volcanoes are hot.
Sakurajima is erupting daily with increasing force. (See photo Facebook/Roary Arbon)
Nearby Kirishima, a complex of several craters is also in eruption with new vents apparently opening up.
Suwanosejima is just south of Sakurajima and erupting regularly.
Ebeko is regularly erupting and some vague news of a nearby volcano on South Kamchatka Peninsula also erupting.
The forecast period is extended to 23 April.
Timor, Molucca Sea are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Volcanic activity seems likely to dominate the remainder of the forecast period.

Summary.
22 April.
Southeast Indian Ocean 5.8 7.44am
Eruption Ebeko, Sakurajima, Kirishima, Kilauea.
23 April.
Papua New Guinea 5.6 8.13pm
Eruption San Cristobal, Sakurajima, Kilauea.
24 April.
Nicaragua 5.6 2.29pm
Eruption Kliuchevskoi, Suwanosejima, Sakurajima.
25 April.
South of Fiji 5.5 9.57am
Eruption Stromboli, Ebeko.
The forecast period became volcanic following the arrival of strong solar conditions late 20 April.
The Mag 7 outlook was dropped as solar conditions quickly faded and eruptions increased.
The 2018 Mag 7 Pacific quake spell is over for now.
Multiple eruptions at multiple volcanoes defined a strong volcanic period.
Ebeko, Kliuchevskoi and another apparently remote volcano at Kamchatka Peninsula lost their lids.
Sakurajima, Kirishima and Suwanosejima at Kyushu, Japan all lost their lids.
San Cristobal wasn't the forecasted volcano in Latin America, nevertheless volcanoes there are also hot.
Vulcanologists at Piton de la Fournaise report the volcano continues to inflate with shallow quakes high in the vent and an eruption imminent.
Pu'u O'o continues to inflate and seems likely to break open and spill a lot of lava soon.
The lava lake at Kilauea has overflowed onto the outer crater floor, the first time since 2015 and technically not an eruption but very significant.
Etna as a forecast pick was possibly justified...a significant small eruption at nearby Stromboli points to volcanic pressure in the area.
The biggest Pacific quakes are plotted on the map and gave some location success despite low magnitude.