Aotearoa Summary. 6 May 2018 - 13 May 2018
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Manapouri, Te Anau, Upper Hunter River, Culverden, Conway River, Ohau Point, Cape Campbell, Tapawera, Makara, Mana, South of Hawera, Taumarunui, Tokoroa, Atiamuri, Rotorua, Opotiki, East Cape. Volcanoes quiet. A significant Pacific volcanic period is unfolding although no indication yet that local volcanoes are hot. Update. 7 May 11.30am 7 May. Taranaki 3.5 11.18am. Solar conditions arrived on cue and showing once again the Little Ice Age solar trend for weak early response. Isolated quakes are possible on 7 May, slowly increasing up to 12 May when a slight quake peak may occur as the forecast period closes. Waipukurau, Porangahau, Dannevirke, Eketahuna are added to Mag 4 risk locations. The period may be volcanic at the expense of quakes although no indication today local volcanoes are hot. Update. 10 May 1.00pm. 8 May. South of Kermadecs 4.1 8.43am 10 May. Northeast of East Cape 4.3 3.09am Hundalee Hills 4.0 9.34am West of Puysegur Point 4.1 10.36am Quakes have generally been subdued in New Zealand as the forecast period becomes very volcanic. A significant quake spell today has brought some location success as solar conditions move towards a potential quake release, peaking on 12 May. The Hundalee Hills 4.0 has fallen between the Conway River and Culverden risk locations. (Murphy's Law) Time parameters for the forecast are very stretched out as the forecasters grapple with Little Ice Age solar tendency for flatter conditions with no obvious peak. The forecast period is extended to 11 May. Dart River is added to Mag 4 risk locations. Local volcanoes are quiet, showing no tendency to heat up. Update. 12 May 11.00pm. 11 May. South of Kermadecs 4.4 10.17am 12 May. South of Hawera 4.1 6.00am Cape Campbell 3.8 1.50pm East of Ward 4.2 2.31pm East of Ward 4.0 2.33pm Offshore Ohau Point 4.6 5.43pm North of East Cape 3.9 8.46pm The 12 May quake peak is here in New Zealand despite few quakes in the Pacific. Kaikoura is the hotspot. The period shows the Little Ice Age solar tendency for quake periods to begin quietly, building to a peak near the end. Solar conditions are slowly easing as the end of the period approaches. Isolated Mag 4 quakes are possible on 13 May. Possibility Mag 5. Confidence=low. Update. 13 May 11.30pm. 13 May. Seddon 4.2 8.40am Cook Strait 3.9 5.10pm The Cook Strait 3.9 was felt around Wellington and probably marks the end of the quake period. Solar quake driving conditions are fading away. The 12 May quake peak to end the forecast period has worked well. Local quakes in forecasted risk locations are likely to be very isolated or absent until a new forecast period begins late 17 May. Summary. 7 May. Taranaki 3.5 11.18am. 8 May. South of Kermadecs 4.1 8.43am 10 May. Northeast of East Cape 4.3 3.09am Hundalee Hills 4.0 9.34am West of Puysegur Point 4.1 10.36am 11 May. South of Kermadecs 4.4 10.17am 12 May. South of Hawera 4.1 6.00am Cape Campbell 3.8 1.50pm East of Ward 4.2 2.31pm East of Ward 4.0 2.33pm Offshore Ohau Point 4.6 5.43pm North of East Cape 3.9 8.46pm 13 May. Seddon 4.2 8.40am Cook Strait 3.9 5.10pm Quakes gradually built up to a quake peak on 12 May. Good timing success in the challenging Little Ice Age solar tendency for slow starts to forecast periods. The Southern Alps Mag 5 risk location hotspot was a fizzer, the hotspots were Cape Campbell and Kaikoura on the 12-13 May quake peak. The forecast was tentatively dropped late on 13 May following the quake peak. Isolated quakes on 15-16 May, very late arrivals for the period, are plotted on a separate map due to the vague outlook offered on 13 May. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
