Pacific Summary. 6 May 2018 - 13 May 2018

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Magnitude 6 risk locations are Northern Tonga, Banda Sea, Kalimantan, Southern Philippines, Central Kuril Islands, Costa Rica, Titicaca, Atacama, Vallenar, Valparaiso.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Pu'u O'o, Halemaumau, Piton de la Fournaise, Kliuchevskoi, Karymsky, Cleveland, Ebeko, Kirishima, Sakurajima, Suwanosejma, Sinabung, Manaro, Pacaya.
Possibility for major eruption at Pu'u O'o (western fissure) or Kilauea Main Vent/Halemaumau.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 7 May 12.00pm.
6 May.
Eruption Ebeko.
7 May.
El Salvador 5.6, 5.2 , 5.2 7.02am
Solar conditions arrived a few hours earlier than expected.
The Little Ice Age solar trend toward weakening solar activity has given once again weak early response.
The biggest quake was in El Salvador, near neighbour to Costa Rica.
The period seems to be heading toward vulcanism at the expense of quakes.
Kermadec Islands, South of Kermadec Islands are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Mainstream news are giving plenty of coverage to the ongoing eruption at Kilauea.
The East Rift has opened out, fissures awkwardly opening and spattering lava in a degassing event right in the middle of Leilani Estates housing subdivision.
Further up the rift at Pu'u O'o, the lava lake that was almost overflowing the crater rim a few days ago has drained back down into the bowels of the Earth, leaving a 250 meter wide hole in the ground.
The 5 May Pu'u O'o 6.9 and following aftershocks seem to indicate more big volcanic action at Pu'u O'o is possible.
The Halema'u ma'u lava lake overflowed the crater rim a few days ago but is 130 meters lower down the vent today and stable.
What goes down must come up and new solar conditions are likely to cause lava to rapidly rise again near the end of the period on approximately 12 May (or sooner).
An increase in lava flowing from the Leilani Estates fissures seems realistic as the period progresses and Kilauea reinflates.

Update. 10 May 2.00pm.
8 May.
Eruption Kliuchevskoi, Ebeko.
9 May.
New Britain 6.0 5.57pm
Hindu Kush 6.2 10.41pm
Eruption Ebeko, Kliuchevskoi, Sakurajima.
Baja California is added to Mag 6 risk locations.
A brief Mag 6 quake spell late 9 May (moving south into New Zealand early 10 May) marks the only quake action in three days.
The period is volcanic at the expense of quakes.
Volcanoes are slowly picking up.
The eruption at Leilani Estates/Kilauea has been very well covered by mainstream news and on Facebook/Roary Arbon.
Fissures are opening and closing all the time.
The fissures have now linked into one big fissure about 4 km in length and growing.
New fissures are producing short lived lava spattering and heavy degassing.
The lava lake at Halema'uma'u is ominously deep in the crater and still falling...what goes down must come up.
The lake is so far down the vent that USGS vulcanologists can't accurately measure the level but tiltmeter data shows the volcano still deflating so the lake must be well below the 220 meters depth recorded a couple of days ago.
The forecast outlook for possible big action at Pu'u O'o has changed.
Quakes are rapidly easing at Pu'u O'o following the 5 May Pu'u O'o 6.9 and crater collapse and discontinuation of lava.
Pu'u O'o seems to be closed off, ongoing action less likely.
USGS vulcanologists' warning for increasing minor eruptions at Halema'uma'u is a good one. Without lava in the vent to hold up the crater walls, rock collapses into the lava lake are resulting in some brief but spectacular ash eruptions.
The vulcanologists are warning more activity at Leilani Estates and Halema'uma'u is imminent.
Volcanic activity seems likely to pick up as 12 May and the end of the forecast period approaches.
Slowly declining action at Leilani Estates could pick up next couple of days.
What happens at Halema'uma'u is uncertain but what goes down must come up...at some point the lava lake will come up again, its just a matter of when and how fast.
Solar conditions, following the Little Ice Age trend of weakening solar activity, are making for some quiet days during the middle of forecast periods, creating forecast timing challenges which didn't exist up until recently.
Seismic data seems to indicate a pulsing in the Pacific during the period.
Possibility Mag 7 or major eruption. Confidence=low.

Update. 11 May 12.00pm
11 May.
Southern Philippines/Mindanao 5.9 6.02am
Pacific quakes are busy today.
The biggest so far, the Philippines 5.9 was 550km deep and no damage at the surface.
More quakes in this area or further south in the Molucca Sea are possible.
Kermadecs and Fiji are also busy.
Kilauea is quiet.
USGS vulcanologists report action at Leilani Estates has eased, no new lava but plenty of new fissures extending along the rift and more action imminent.
New quakes northeast of Leilani Estates could be the next outbreak location and fortunately in a less inhabitated area.
The Halema'uma'u lava lake is 300 meters below the crater rim and still apparently falling fast.
What goes down must come up, what happens next at Halema'u ma'u is uncertain but the lake can't keep falling forever...
Solar conditions are steady today on a slightly declining trend as the possible 12 May quake peak approaches.
Possibility Pacific Mag 7 or major eruption. Confidence=low.

Update. 12 May 10.00pm.
12 May.
Eruption Merapi, Piton de la Fournaise.
Pacific quakes have eased, despite the quake swarm in New Zealand.
Merapi has erupted with a brief powerful stratospheric blast.
Piton de la Fournaise is still in eruption although lava flows are steadily decreasing.
Kilauea is quiet apart from occasional minor ash eruptions at Halema'uma'u.
The Halema'uma'u lava lake is ominously low down in the vent, at least 300 meters and still falling dangerously fast.
Lava has stopped flowing at Leilani Estates but ever widening new fissures, steam and degassing continue.
Lava at Kilauea is still going down as the volcano dramatically deflates to an historical low and seems unlikely to suddenly rise and erupt on 13 May.
Quakes are increasing at Kilauea as the supporting lava drains away and the ground above subsides.
Solar conditions are steady on 12 May and likely to weaken soon as the period closes.
The forecast period is extended to 13 May.
Kilauea is added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Possibility Pacific Mag 7 or major eruption. Confidence=low.

Update. 14 May 12.00am
13 May.
Tonga 5.6 5.50pm
Eruption Kilauea, Kliuchevskoi, Karymsky, Ebeko, Piton de la Fournaise.
Volcanoes remain active on 13 May although no big eruptions.
Volcanoes are now following the decreasing solar trend as the forecast period closes.
A new fissure at Kilauea East Rift opened today northeast of Leilani Estates with a small lava flow of 250 meters and then action stopped.
USGS vulcanologists report widening new cracks and steam on the East Rift at Leilani Estates and more action imminent.
The Halema'uma'u lava lake has stopped falling and could be over 400 meters below the crater rim and a historical record...deflation at Kilauea has stopped.
Kilauea will start inflating again soon and is likely to erupt more lava then at Leilani Estates and the main vent, Halema'uma'u.
Major action at Kilauea over several weeks or months may only be starting.
The Piton de la Fournaise eruption is slowly fizzing out, lava is flowing slowly in tubes.
No big quakes in the Pacific today although very late action is always possible next days.
A full summary will be posted later.
A new forecast period begins late 17 May.

Summary.
6 May.
Eruption Ebeko.
7 May.
El Salvador 5.6, 5.2 , 5.2 7.02am
8 May.
Eruption Kliuchevskoi, Ebeko.
9 May.
New Britain 6.0 5.57pm
Hindu Kush 6.2 10.41pm
Eruption Ebeko, Kliuchevskoi, Sakurajima.
11 May.
Southern Philippines/Mindanao 5.9 6.02am
12 May.
Eruption Merapi, Piton de la Fournaise.
13 May.
Tonga 5.6 5.50pm
Eruption Kilauea, Kliuchevskoi, Karymsky, Ebeko, Piton de la Fournaise.
The forecast period began on cue and rumbled on steadily for several days.
Good quake location success from a low magnitude period...quakes tend to flatten out with less obvious peaks in these times.
Quakes were moderate but volcanoes were blowing hard during the forecast period.
Kilauea has dominated news and is followed on Facebook/Roary Arbon.
The massive deflation of Halema'u ma'u as lava drains away down into the East Rift eased on 13 May.
More fissures appeared northeast of Leilani Estates on 13 May with lava and gas jets, meeting the forecast outlook for a pickup.
Merapi blew a big brief stratospheric ash cloud during the 12-13 May peak.
Lava flow at Piton de la Fournaise picked up for a day and then weakened again as solar conditions faded away on 13 May.
The Steamboat Geyser at Yellowstone erupted at the height of the period on 12-13 May.
Late action in Japan on 15 May is plotted on a separate map.














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