Aotearoa Summary. 1 June 2018 - 8 June 2018

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Magnitude 5 risk locations are Ohau Point, Northern Seaward Kaikouras, Upper Clarence, Tapuaenuku, Cape Campbell, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Porangahau, Atiamuri, Whakatane, Opotiiki, East Cape,
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Doubtful Sound, Te Anau, Olivine Ranges, Upper Rakaia River, Upper Godley River, Murchison, Culverden, Conway River, Kaikoura, Ward, Seddon, Southern Cook Strait, West of Levin, Kapiti, South of Wanganui, South of Hawera, Waipukurau, Wairoa, Mahia, East Cape, Opotiki, Whakatane, Rotorua, Tokoroa, Taumarunui.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 4 June 12.00am.
1 June.
North of East Cape 4.1 5.20am
2 June.
West of Mahia 3.8 6.05am
Plenty of big action north of New Zealand hasn't come here yet.
Local quakes have been very busy following the South of Kermadecs 5.6, 5.3 double quake.
Possibility for isolated Mag 5 quakes still exist on 4 June.
North Island East Coast is higher risk.
Isolated quakes may continue ahead of a possible peak on 7 June.

Update. 5 June 11.20pm.
5 June.
Kawerau 4.1 11.08pm; 3.9 & quake swarm.
Local quakes were quiet during the typically less active middle section of any forecast period.
Recent South of Kermadec Islands activity is now moving into Bay of Plenty as a possible quake peak on 7 June approaches.
Possibility for Mag 5+ quakes continues 6-7 June.
Kawerau is higher risk.
Possibility minor eruption White Island.

Update. 7 June 12.00am.
Local and Pacific quakes were quiet on 6 June...except Kilauea.
The big Kawerau quake swarm has settled down on 6 June and a good indicator of a volcanic pickup.
Today Geonet have announced heating since 31 May at Ruapehu.
The 24-27 May Aotearoa Summary speculated volcanic heating in New Zealand was near so today's announcement is good confirmation.
The Ruapehu heating gives credit to the addition of White Island as a steam eruption risk...although no eruption has taken place yet.
The forecast period is heavily volcanic in the Pacific.
Bay of Plenty remains highest risk location on 7 June.
The forecast period is likely to close soon.

Update. 7 June 3.30pm.
7 June.
West of Levin 3.9 1.55am
Ward 4.1 12.24pm
Moderate quakes very late in the period have given some substance to the forecast.
Previously not much was happening outside of volcanic heating/swarms in Bay of Plenty and Volcanic Plateau.
Solar conditions are fading away today.
Volcanic activity often comes at the end of forecast periods or soon after.
Additionally, South of Kermadecs is a Pacific hotspot during the period.
Late quake or volcano action in Bay of Plenty/Volcanic Plateau seems possible on 8 June.
This Service is offline until 11 June.
A Summary for the forecast period will be posted later.

Summary.
1 June.
North of East Cape 4.1 5.20am
2 June.
West of Mahia 3.8 6.05am
5 June.
Kawerau 4.1 11.08pm; 3.9 & quake swarm.
7 June.
West of Levin 3.9 1.55am
Ward 4.1 12.24pm
8 June.
White Island 4.1 9.53pm
Solar conditions arrived on cue and quakes soon followed.
Heavy South of Kermadecs action moved south into Bay of Plenty and Volcanic Plateau as the period progressed.
The 24-27 May Aotearoa Summary surmised volcanic action in the near future.
The 5 June Kawerau quake swarm indicated heating in Bay of Plenty.
Geonet announced the next day that Ruapehu had been heating since 31 May.
The Pacific is hot and more local volcanic action seems possible soon.
Solar conditions faded on 7 June, quakes and volcanic heating soon faded away.
No local Mag 4 quakes since 9 June until a new quake period begins 18 June.
Ruapehu has cooled since 8 June but may heat again during the new period.

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