Pacific Summary. 1 June 2018 - 7 June 2018

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Magnitude 7 risk location is Halema'uma'u. Confidence=low.
Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of Kermadec Islands, Kermadec Islands, Vanuatu, New Britain, New Ireland, Bougainville, Northern Sumatra, Nicobar Islands, Molucca Sea, Taiwan, Southeast of Honshu, East of Kamchatka Peninsula, Offshore Oregon, Northern California, Venezuela, Atacama, Pakistan.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Kilauea, Merapi, Sinabung, Sakurajima, Suwanosejima, Kirishima, Ebeko, Piton de la Fournaise, Etna.
A major stratsopheric eruption is possible at Halema'uma'u.
Increased fountaining and lava volumes are possible at Kilauea East Rift.

Update. 3 June 11.30pm
1 June.
South of Kermadec Islands 5.6 4.52pm
Eruption Merapi, Suwanosejima, Sakurajima.
2 June.
Kilauea/Halema'uma'u 5.4 11.37am
Eruption Halema'uma'u and East Rift.
Tonga 5.6 11.53pm
3 June.
Tonga 5.6 12.48pm
Solar quake driving conditions arrived on cue and action close to home soon followed.
A considerable South of L'Esperance Rock 5.6, 5.3 sequence gave good location success and some justification for Mag 5 risk in New Zealand.
Merapi let off a sizeable blast, following the 24 May blast also at the start of a forecast period.
The eruption at Piton de la Fournaise has ended.
The 2 June Halema'uma'u 5.4 and eruption was under the Mag 6 threshold and non stratospheric.
Regardless the eruption was very large.
Fountaining at Fissure 8 on the East Rift has produced a very fast moving lava flow which has eaten up more houses and cut off another highway.
Isolated Mag 5/6 Pacific quakes seem possible on 4 June.
Santa Cruz Islands, Makira, Guadalcanal are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Another big quake and eruption is possible at Halema'uma'u 12.00pm 4 June (approx).
The period is likely to be extended to a quake and eruption peak on 7 June.

Update. 6 June. 12.00am.
4 June.
Halema'uma'u 3.8 and eruption 9.24am NZST.
Halema'uma'u 5.5 and eruption 1.50pm NZST.
Eruption Ebeko, Fuego.
A huge volcanic period has evolved and the forecast has largely kept ahead of the action.
The accuracy of the forecast outlook for a large quake and eruption at Halema'uma'u 4 June at midday will keep the sceptics guessing.
The East Rift eruption has increased dramatically.
USGS vulcanologists report the fountain at Fissure 8 went from 50 to 80 meters high, feeding the 500 meter wide fast moving lava flow which has taken out the coastal village of Kapoho and is rapidly filling in the bay.
The 2018 eruption of Kilauea is breaking modern records and no sign of slowing down.
A major eruption of Fuego has made world news. A hot fast moving pyroclastic flow from the steep volcano overwhelmed at least 60 people and more casualties to come.
Ash also coated nearby Guatemala City.
Fuego is infamous for deadly fast moving pyroclastic flows.
A Mag 6 or 7 quake and big eruption at Halema'uma'u seems possible 12.00pm (approx) 7 June.

Update. 6 June 11.30pm.
6 June.
Halema'uma'u 5.5 2.32am
Eruption Sakurajima, Fuego, Ebeko.
Quake action at Halema'u ma'u keeps growing.
Huge slumping of the crater accompanies each quake.
The outlook for a Mag 6/7 7 June midday quake at Halema'uma'u still seems possible.
The massive lava flow from East Rift Fissure 8 has wiped Kapoho off the map.
Lava filled the bay which is now a headland.
Most of the houses at Kapoho were eaten up by the lava.
Fuego has released another pyroclastic flow down the same channel as the devastating hot flow which killed at least 70 people on 4 June but no casualties this time, the area is abandoned.
Pacific quakes, excepting Kilauea, are quiet and likely to remain quiet, the period is heavily volcanic.
Volcanic signature in New Zealand is high. Bay of Plenty and Taupo quake swarms along with heating at Ruapehu are reflected to some degree in the Aotearoa forecast.

Update. 7 June 3.00pm.
7 June.
South Sandwich Islands 5.6 6.51am
Kilauea 5.6 and eruption 2.06pm
Another big quake and eruption at Halema'uma'u this afternoon has met the forecast profile.
The East Rift lava flow has taken out the Vacationland suburb next door to Kapoho Bay.
Pacific quakes are otherwise moderately quiet as the end of solar quake and volcano driving conditions and the end of the forecast period rapidly approaches.
Volcanic activity tends to come very late in forecast periods or soon after.
Another big Halema'uma'u quake and eruption is possible in the next two days. Confidence=low.
Other Pacific volcanic activity may occur next two days.
This Service is offline until 11 June.
A Summary for the period will be posted later.

Summary.
1 June.
South of Kermadec Islands 5.6 4.52pm
Eruption Merapi, Suwanosejima, Sakurajima.
2 June.
Kilauea/Halema'uma'u 5.4 11.37am
Eruption Halema'uma'u and East Rift.
Tonga 5.6 11.53pm
3 June.
Tonga 5.6 12.48pm
4 June.
Halema'uma'u 3.8 and eruption 9.24am NZST.
Halema'uma'u 5.5 and eruption 1.50pm NZST.
Eruption Ebeko, Fuego.
6 June.
Halema'uma'u 5.5 2.32am
Eruption Sakurajima, Fuego, Ebeko.
7 June.
South Sandwich Islands 5.6 6.51am
Kilauea 5.6 and eruption 2.06pm
The period began on cue and turned into one of the biggest volcanic periods observed at this Service.
Volcanoes went off and continued for a week after the period ended.
The 2 June South of Kermadecs 5.6, 5.3 sequence created heating into New Zealand later in the period.
Quakes were otherwise subdued during the period as volcanoes took over.
Big quakes at Halema'uma'u continued through the period as the crater collapses into the hole left behind by the magma.
The magma from Halema'uma'u and Pu'u O'o has apparently moved down the opened up East Rift, escaping into the ocean via Fissure 8 at Leilani Estates where a massive 50 meter high fountain flows out as an impressive river.
500 homes were lost at Kapoho and Vacationland.
An attempt to forecast quakes to the hour at Halema'u ma'u didn't work very well although the biggest quakes came during the height of the period as volcanic pressure increased, the tiltmeter showing inflation of the volcano. (see Facebook/Roary Arbon)
The unfortunate sudden eruption of Fuego took 300 lives as hot pyroclastic flows of ash sped down the sides of the steep volcano, incinerating everything in front of them.
Solar conditions faded on 7 June but the volcanic floodgates were open and volcanoes went off for the next 10 days until the start of a new forecast period on 18 June.

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