Aotearoa Summary. 18 June 2018 - 25 June 2018

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Magnitude 5 risk locations are East Cape, Eastern Bay of Plenty.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Te Anau, Olivine Ranges, St Arnaud, South of Motueka, Ohau Point, Ward, Cape Campbell, Seddon, South of Wellington, Makara, Mana, Kapiti, West Of Levin, South of Hawera, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Porangahau, Waipukurau, Northern Hawkes Bay, Taumarunui, Tokoroa, Atiamuri, Rotorua, Whakatane, Opotiki, Northern Urewera.
Volcanic activity may increase.
White Island, Ruapehu may show signs of heating or minor steam activity later in the period.

Update. 20 June 9.30am
18 June.
North of White Island 4.2 2.43pm
19 June.
Southwest of Taranaki 4.1 10.4pm
Solar quake and eruption driving conditions have arrived on cue.
Moderate quakes have followed on the solar trend of weakening activity at the beginning of forecast periods.
No indication yet for any volcanic action on the Volcanic Plateau or Bay of Plenty.
Pacific volcanos are hot but not erupting, local volcanos are likely to follow suit.
The forecast period is extended to 20 June.
Tokomaru Bay, Tolaga Bay, Gisborne, Mahia are added to Mag 4 risk locations.
Quakes may become infrequent next day.
East Cape to Hawkes Bay is higher risk.

Update. 20 June 11.30pm
20 June.
North of White Island 3.9 8.25pm
Northeast of Opotiki 4.7 10.23pm
The pressure has gone on in Bay of Plenty.
Volcanic signal has picked up today, minor eruptive activity at White Island seems possible as the end of the period approaches.
Isolated quakes are possible on 21 June.
East Cape, Bay of Plenty are higher risk.

Update. 21 June 11.30pm
21 June.
South of Kermadecs 4.7 10.36am
East of Turangi 4.6 4.59pm
South of Kermadecs 4.2 7.53pm
More heavy pressure today on the Volcanic Plateau, South of Kermadecs and further north at Tonga.
No indication Ruapehu is likely to blow big. A small puff of steam seems the most likely action, or less.
No data for White Island.
Solar conditions are fading tonight, the quake period is closing.
The forecast period is extended to 22 June and likely to end.
Isolated late quakes are possible.
Volcanic Plateau, Bay of Plenty, East Cape are higher risk.

Update. 23 June 2.00pm
22 June.
Porangahau 4.1 5.17pm
Porangahau 4.9 6.21pm
23 June.
Rotorua 3.8 11.52am
A strong double quake at Porangahau was widely felt in the Lower North Island.
Solar quake driving conditions have unexpectedly picked up again on 23 June.
The forecast period is extended to 23 June.
Southwest Pacific and Indonesia are showing indications of heavy pressure with possibility for isolated big quake action.
Possibility isolated local Mag 5 quakes on 23 June.
Local volcanoes are quiet today and seem unlikely to emit more than a puff of steam despite the big Pacific and Indonesia volcanic spell.

Update. 25 March 12.00am
23 June.
Offshore Wairarapa 4.0 3.22pm
South of Kermadecs 4.1 5.04pm
24 June.
South of Kermadecs 4.2 10.17am
Excellent location success during the period but solar conditions are fluctuating on a gradually weakening trend, making for low confidence forecast timing.
Too much is going on, especially north of New Zealand, to let the forecast go just yet.
Heavy Southwest Pacific pressure during the period includes New Zealand, giving further reason to extend the forecast period.
Isolated late Mag 4/5 quake activity is possible on 25 June.
North Island is higher risk.
Volcanoes are quiet, even low level steam eruptions now seem very unlikely.
A new quake period begins 28 June.

Summary.
18 June.
North of White Island 4.2 2.43pm
19 June.
Southwest of Taranaki 4.1 10.4pm
20 June.
North of White Island 3.9 8.25pm
Northeast of Opotiki 4.7 10.23pm
21 June.
South of Kermadecs 4.7 10.36am
East of Turangi 4.6 4.59pm
South of Kermadecs 4.2 7.53pm
22 June.
Porangahau 4.1 5.17pm
Porangahau 4.9 6.21pm
23 June.
Rotorua 3.8 11.52am
Offshore Wairarapa 4.0 3.22pm
South of Kermadecs 4.1 5.04pm
Offshore Wairarapa 4.0 3.22pm
South of Kermadecs 4.1 5.04pm
24 June.
South of Kermadecs 4.2 10.17am

25 June.
South of Kermadecs 4.9 10.59pm
Solar conditions arrived earlier than forecast and local quakes slowly responded.
Bay of Plenty/Volcanic Plateau/Taranaki were hotspots early in the period.
The Optotiki 4.7 was widely felt.
East Coast/Gisborne was added to risk locations following the Bay of Plenty rumbles.
Quakes came again late in the period in Wairarapa.
Good location gains during the forecast period.
Southwest Pacific, including South of Kermadecs were under pressure.
The forecast was extended to 24/25 June to catch late action but quakes faded away.
Solar conditions are very unsettled on 26 June so the 28 June forecast period has been brought forward to 27 June.


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