Pacific Summary. 18 June 2018 - 25 June 2018

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Magnitude 6 risk locations are Halema'uma'u, South of Kermadec Islands, Kermadec Islands, Tonga, South of Fiji, Vanuatu, Eastern Solomon Islands, Banda Sea, Northern Sumatra, Honshu, Northern California, South of Valdivia, Pakistan.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Kilauea, Langila, Merapi, Sinabung, Sakurajima, Suwanosjima, Ebeko, Kliuchevskoi, Shiveluch, Popocatepetl, Pacaya, Cumbre, Sierra Negra, White Island.
The period seems likely to be heavily volcanic.

Update. 20 June 10.00am
18 June.
Pacaya 5.6 2.32pm
19 June.
Halema'uma'u 5.3 4.12am
Eruption Ebeko.
20 June.
Halema'uma'u 5.3 3.05am
Solar quake and eruption driving conditions arrived slightly earlier than forecast.
The Osaka 5.6 (apparently measured at 6.1 by Japanese seismologists) occurred before this forecast was posted and was the biggest quake in Osaka for a long time.
The Pacaya 5.6 is the biggest Pacific quake so far in the forecast period and has come directly under the volcano and close to neighbouring volcano Fuego, the scene of devastating 4 June lahars.
Fuego is also hot, blowing a small ash cloud today.
Heavy rain in the area has created many mud lahars, not a sign of volcanic activity.
Many Pacific volcanoes are hot or blowing light ash.
Kadovar, Langila, Fuego all hot.
The eruption of Cumbre has apparently ended, news is scant.
Neighbouring Galapagos volcano Sierra Negra is an eruption risk.
Big quakes but no eruptions acccompany the ongoing collapse of the crater at Halema'uma'u.
A river of lava continues to pour out from Kilauea East Rift.
The forecast period is extended to 20 June and likely to run for longer.

Update. 22 June 11.00am
21 June.
Halema'uma'u 5.3 2.22am
Southern Tonga 5.4 11.23am
Northern Tonga 5.4 2.03pm
Eruption Sakurajima, Sinabung, Krakatoa, Kadovar, Langila, Manaro, Yasur, Kilauea East Rift.
22 June.
Vanuatu/Efate 6.1 9.13am
Big quakes and low level eruptions in Indonesia and Southwest Pacific dominate the period so far.
The list is long and other volcanoes Bromo, Merapi, Agung, Puyehue are very hot.
Regular 5.3 quakes at Halema'uma'u accompany the ongoing crater collapse.
Another possibly larger quake looks possible in the next hour at Halema'uma'u.
Fountaining at Fissure 8 on KIlauea East Rift has increased from 50 to 60 meters during the period.
A 50 meter high spatter cone has formed around the fountain, making it hard to see.
A fast river of lava flows 13km to the sea in a single channel where new coastline is being formed.
The forecast period is extended to 22 June.
Quakes may fade away but volcanoes seem unlikely to follow suit.

Update. 23 June 1.45pm
22 June.
Eruption Kirishima, Telica.
23 June.
Makira 5.4, 5.5 12.33pm
Solar quake driving conditions have picked up today.
Heavy pressure in the Southwest Pacific and Indonesia indicates more eruptions and quakes are possible on 23 June.
Possibility Mag 7 Southwest Pacific and Indonesia.
Higher risk locations are Sunda Strait, Western Java, Central Sumatra Coast, Makira, Guadalcanal.

Update. 24 June 11.15pm
Eruption Kirishima, Telica.
23 June.
Makira 5.4, 5.5 12.33pm
Pacific quakes are quiet on 24 June.
No data for volcanoes..its Sunday.
Solar conditions are fluctuating today making for tricky forecasting and low confidence.
Heavy pressure in Southwest Pacific and Indonesia during the period seems most likely for any residual quakes or eruptions.
A late Southwest Pacific/ Indonesia quake or eruption is still possible on 25 June.
Isolated quakes may occur next three days ahead of a quake peak on 28 June.

Summary.
18 June.
Pacaya 5.6 2.32pm
19 June.
Halema'uma'u 5.3 4.12am
Eruption Ebeko.
20 June.
Halema'uma'u 5.3 3.05am
21 June.
Halema'uma'u 5.3 2.22am
Southern Tonga 5.4 11.23am
Northern Tonga 5.4 2.03pm
Eruption Sakurajima, Sinabung, Krakatoa, Kadovar, Langila, Manaro, Yasur, Kilauea East Rift.
22 June.
Vanuatu/Efate 6.1 9.13am
Eruption Kirishima, Telica.
23 June.
Makira 5.4, 5.5 12.33pm
24 June.
Halema'uma'u 5.2
25 June.
Kermadec Islands/Monowai 5.3 10.15am
Eruption Ibu.
Solar conditions arrived earlier than expected.
The Osaka 5.6 shut the city down but the Japanese are well prepared and only three lives lost.
The Pacaya 5.6 came soon after the forecast was posted but no eruption occurred during the period.
The ongoing collapse of Halema'uma'u during the period was accompanied by regular Mag 5.3 quakes.
Fountaining 50-60 meters high from Fissure 8 on Kilauea East Rift now has a 60 meter high spatter cone surrounding it and hard to see.
A one kilometer wide section on new coast exists where the lava enters the ocean, fed by the fast flowing lava river.
The forecast successfully focussed on Southwest Pacific and Indonesia.
Low level eruptions right across these regions haven't been observed at this Service in such numbers.
Indonesia/SW Pacific were added as Mag 7 risk on 23 June but quakes and eruptions faded away with the solar conditions and the isolated late action never came.

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