Aotearoa Summary. 27 June 2018 - 30 June 2018
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Rotorua, Tokoroa, Taupo, Taumarunui, Northern Hawkes Bay, Southwest of Wanganui, Levin, Kapiti, Mana, Makara, Masterton, Lake Wairarapa, Turakirae Head, South of Wellington, Cape Campbell, Seddon, Ward, Lower Awatere Valley, Northern Seaward Kaikouras, Kaikoura, Culverden, Rolleston, Murchison, Upper Hokitika River, Lower Arawhata River, Te Anau, Puysegur Point. Lunar influence may center quakes around low tide. Low tide Cook Strait=11.00am, 11.00pm. White Island may be added later in the period for minor steam eruption. Update. 29 June 1.00pm 29 June. Northeast of Waiheke Island 4.1 4.52am The decision to bring forward the forecast period to 27 June was a good one, Pacific volcanoes responded to the early arrival of solar conditions. Pacific quakes have been very quiet during the period. Local quakes have been under Mag 4 but good location success for those following more closely at lower magnitude. No indication that local volcanoes are hot, despite heavy Pacific and Indonesia pressure. Persistent solar conditions are slowly falling on 29 June. The forecast period is extended to 29 June. Late activity is always possible so long as solar conditions carry enough energy. North Island is higher risk. Update. 30 June 1.30pm 30 June. East of Cape Campbell 4.5 2.18am. Low tide= 12.37am Southwest Arm Manapouri 3.9 7.03am. Low tide= 6.42am Southwest of White Island 3.7 8.15am. High tide= 7.54am Late action has come to New Zealand. Lunar modulation to low tide on the two biggest quakes. Solar conditions are on the quake threshold and falling today. The period has been heavily volcanic and Pacific quakes were subdued during the period. The forecast period has probably ended. Summary. 29 June. Northeast of Waiheke Island 4.1 4.52am 30 June. East of Cape Campbell 4.5 2.18am. Low tide= 12.37am Southwest Arm Manapouri 3.9 7.03am. Low tide= 6.42am Southwest of White Island 3.7 8.15am. High tide= 7.54pm Local quakes came very late in the period, following the Pacific trend for low quake activity. High magnitude risk wasn't fully justified even though recent South of Kermadecs and North Island quakes were strong. Widening Cook Strait risk locations from the previous period was justified with the Cape Campbell 4.5. Lunar modulation was possible for two quakes on 30 June...within two hours of low tide is a casual outlook for modulation. Quakes are quiet on 1 July. Ruapehu and White Island are quiet. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
