Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary 4 July 2018 - 6 July 2018

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This forecast was posted on Facebook/Roary Arbon 3 July 11.40pm NZST.
The quakestorm site was down at the time so no forecast was posted there.

Pacific Forecast. 4 July, 2018.
Magnitude 6 risk locations are New Zealand, South of Kermadec Islands, Kermadec Islands, Tonga, South of Fiji, Vanuatu, New Britain, Philippines, Taiwan, Aleutian Islands, Guatemala, El Salvador, Titicaca, Atacama.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Manaro, Krakatoa, Agung, Mayon, Sakurajima, Kirishima, Sierra Negra.
New Zealand confidence=low. A local slow slip event or Kermadecs undersea eruption may be underway.

Summary.
4 July.
New Britain 5.4 11.43pm
Eruption Krakatoa, Agung, Sakurajima, Sierra Negra, Kilauea.
5 July.
Vanuatu 5.5 4.17am
6 July.
East Kamchatka Peninsula 6.1 1.40pm
A short lived solar pickup against a weakening trend prompted this forecast.
Quakes were subdued again as the huge volcanic trend continued.
Biggest quakes were in the zone, the New Britain 5.4 came just three minutes after the forecast was posted.
A late, rare Kamchatka 6.1 arrived as this summary was being posted.
Risk locations Kermadecs, Tonga, Fiji, New Zealand were quiet, that part of the forecast didn't work, justifying low confidence.
Volcanoes were throwing it out, the massive Pacific and Indonesia volcanic trend of several weeks hasn't ended yet.
Java is the Indonesian hotspot.
Krakatoa is now in constant eruption and blew some lava last few days.
Agung on Bali pushed up new lava, blocking the vent which then blew out in a specacular short lived eruption on 2 July.
Data indicates Java may remain a hotspot and likely to feature in a new forecast period beginning late 10 July.
Curiously, Sumatra volcano Sinabung which has been erupting steadily for several years has quietened down recently.
Data is scarce for Sierra Negra but apparently lava is still fountaining from fissures.
The river of lava flowing from Kilauea East Rift is as strong as ever, collapse at Halema'u ma'u ongoing.
Vulcanologists at Kilauea see no sign of any impending eruption at neighbouring volcano Mauna Loa, the world's largest volcano and considerably bigger than Kilauea.
Observations at this Service suggest an eruption at Mauna Loa is possible soon, maybe in the September/October equinoxal period although supporting data is limited at the moment.