Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Forecast for 13 May 2014 - 19 May 2014

Quake activity may increase. Mag 5+ risk areas are East Cape, Fiordland. Mag 4+ risk areas are Wairarapa, Cook Strait, Hokitika, Christchurch. Activity may build from north to south during the period. Quake times 17-19 May for Christchurch are1am,1pm (approx). Hokitika 7am, 7pm. Wairarapa/Cook Strait 2am, 2pm. East Cape 3am, 3pm. South Pacific quake activity may come late in the period. Risk areas are Vanuatu, Aconcagua. Watch out also for Kilauea, Chiles, Ambrym very late or after the forecast period. Chiles is a stratovolcano so could go off with a bang. South Pacific location confidence = low. Forecast Summary. 13 May. Dannevirke 4.1 14 May. Kermadecs 5.0, East Cape 4.3 15 May. East of Auckland 4.8 16 May. Eketahuna 4.3, Vanuatu 5.5 18 May. East Cape 4.0, Kermadecs 5.1, Vanuatu 5.4 20 May. North of East Cape 4.6, 4.2 21 May. Gisborne 4.1 23 May. Taranaki 4.2, Fiordland 4.3 (USGS), Kilauea 2.9 24 May. Fiordland 4.0 Active conditions on 13-14 May remained steady until 17 May as expected. The expected buildup of solar drivers 17-19 May never happened. Quakes remained elevated and steady until the end of the period and beyond. The Colombian Seismological Observatory reports that quake activity under Chiles-Cerro Negro de Mayasquer has eased a little since 21 May but increased under nearby Cumbral.