Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 6 August 2018 - 10 August 2018

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Magnitude 4 risk locations are East of Coromandel, Southern Waikato, Tauranga, Taumarunui, Atiamuri, Tokoroa, Rotorua, Whakatane, Opotiki, East Cape, Waipukurau, Dannevirke, Porangahau, South of Taranaki, Upper Awatere Valley, Ohau Point, Conway River.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.
Fiordland and other risk locations may be added later.

Update. 7 August 5.00pm
7 August.
Dart River 3.9 2.47am
Mild brief solar conditions arrived on cue and were enough to drive the big equatorial Rinjani 6.9 but nothing further out toward the Poles.
New, possibly mild solar conditions are here now and may drive isolated local Mag 4 quakes on 8 August.
Dart River is added to Mag 4 locations.

Update. 10 August 12.30am
7 August.
East of Ruatoria 4.7 8.18pm
8 August..
Cape Turnagain 4.2 5.47pm
9 August.
Culverden 4.2 7.56pm
Isolated moderate quakes have dominated the forecast period.
Mild solar conditions arriving on 8 August have kept the period active.
Solar conditions have steadily weakened since then.
The forecast wasn't updated on 9 August.
The Culverden 4.2 is the first Mag 4 for several weeks there.
Kermadecs and New Zealand have continued to show some signal for more isolated quake activity on 10 August.
The forecast period is extended to 10 August.

Summary.
7 August.
Dart River 3.9 2.47am
East of Ruatoria 4.7 8.18pm
8 August..
Cape Turnagain 4.2 5.47pm
9 August.
Culverden 4.2 7.56pm
Solar conditions arrived on cue but quakes were slow to respond.
Dart River has featured in recent forecasts but excluding it as a risk location this time was a mistake.
Daily isolated Mag 4 quakes justified the outlook for the period.
Background quakes were relatively quiet off of mild solar conditions.