Pacific Summary. 6 August 2018 - 11 August 2018

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Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of Kermadecs, Kermadec Islands, Northern Vanuatu, Bismarck Sea, New Britain, New Ireland, Northern Papua New Guinea, Central Sumatra, Molucca Sea, Southern Honshu, Kuril Islands, Rat Islands.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Manaro, Krakatoa, Sakurajima, Ebeko, Karymsky, Kilauea, Sierra Negra, Pacaya, Nevados de Chillan, PIton de la Fournaise, Etna.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 6 August 10.30am
5 August.
Rinjani 6.9 11.46pm
The Rinjani 6.9 has come two hours after the posting of the forecast and following several days of quiet Pacific quakes.
The quake is in the same location as the 29 July Rinjani 6.4.
Frustratingly East Java was dropped as a risk location following the 25-26 July forecast period and the Rinjani quake sequence has eaten up forecast locations since.
No speculation from vulcanologists on possible volcanic activity at Rinjani following the two big quakes under the volcano.
An ash cloud or degassing event at Rinjani seems possible next few days, a big eruption unlikely.
Another big quake at Rinjani seems possible as the forecast period closes late on 7 August.
The new Rinjani risk location isn't plotted onto the map.
East Timor, South Banda Sea, Rinjani are added to Mag 6 locations.
Solar conditions have quickly weakened today.
Quakes may remain quiet until late 7 August.
No volcano data today but the massive Pacific volcano spell seems likely to continue strongly during the period and maybe for years to come as Little Ice Age solar conditions seem to be increasingly driving volcanic activity at the expense of ever decreasing quakes.
A long range forecast announcement regarding Hawaii volcano Mauna Loa is likely next few days.
A Turangi quake swarm has begun in New Zealand at the beginning of the period but no Mag 4 quakes.

Update. 7 August 4.20pm
6 August.
Eruption Ebeko, Krakatoa.
Quakes and eruptions are weak off of weak solar conditions.
New solar conditions due late 7 August could give a kick to a mild period.
Coincidentally or otherwise, USGS vulcanologists have announced the end of the eruption at Kilauea just one day after forecasters at this Service consider posting a forecast for nearby Mauna Loa.
Lava has stopped flowing from "Fissure 8" but may resume again as it has in the past.
Halema'uma'u has settled, quakes and collapses easing back.
Pu'u O'o has started venting strongly after going quiet for three months.
New solar conditions forecasted for late 7 August are here but may be mild.
The forecast period is extended to 8 August.
Volcanoes may be more active, quakes subdued.

Update. 10 August 1.00am
7 August.
Eruption Sakurajima.
8 August.
Eruption Nevados de Chillan, Fuego, Sierra Negra.
9 August.
East of Rinjani 5.9 5.25pm NZST.
Pacific quakes have been very quiet during the period unless you live in Lombok, Indonesia.
Volcanoes have been active at the expense of quakes.
Kilauea has gone quiet on 5 August.
No collapses at Halema'uma'u, no lava at Kilauea East Rift, the eruption has ended for now.
Kilauea went quiet for 5 days and later on 16 days during the 1955 eruption so the 2018 eruption could start again with the arrival of new solar conditions.
Long term solar conditions are generally weak following winter solstice and unlikely to pick up until the spring equinox.
Solar conditions for the next month may not be strong enough to restart the eruption at Kilauea.
An eruption at Mauna Loa doesn't seem likely in the next few days.
Fuego has erupted for the first time since the 5 June pyroclastic flows swept away many people or cooked them.
The eruption at Sierra Negra is ongoing but may be slightly weakening.
Nevados de Chillan has let off some moderate ash.
Solar conditions are fading fast on 10 August although residual isolated quakes or eruptions seem possible.
The forecast period is extended to 10 August and is likely to end.

Summary.
5 August.
Rinjani 6.9 11.46pm
6 August.
Eruption Ebeko, Krakatoa.
7 August.
Eruption Sakurajima.
8 August.
Eruption Nevados de Chillan, Fuego, Sierra Negra.
9 August.
East of Rinjani 5.9 5.25pm
11 August.
Central Kuril Islands 6.0 6.12am
The Rinjani 6.9 arrived at the onset of solar conditions and soon after the forecast was posted.
Major damage on Lombok, most buildings damaged or destroyed, over 250 lives lost.
The Indonesian Army has struggled to get in to the area with assistance and supplies.
The quake is the biggest since the 5 May Pu'u O'o 6.9, clearly demonstrating how global quakes have dropped away following the Jan-March Mag 7 quake spell.
Volcanoes dominated the period.
The eruption of Kilauea has ended.
Lava has stopped flowing from Fissure 8 on the East Rift, leaving a 90 meter high cinder cone.
Collapse at Halema'u ma'u has stopped and venting at Pu'u O'o begins.
The eruption may begin again.
The 1955 Kilauea eruption had two pauses of 5 and 16 days.
Inflation at nearby Mauna Loa is ongoing.
The Kuril Islands 6.0 gave good location success and came just outside the end of the forecast period.






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