Aotearoa Summary. 1 September 2018 - 7 September 2018

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Magnitude 5 risk location is West Taranaki Bight.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Puysegur Point, Dart River, Upper Rakaia River, Westport, Motueka, Farewell Spit , Nelson, D'Urville Island, Taranaki, Taumarunui, Taupo, Taihape, Urewera, Tokoroa, Tauranga, Rotorua, Whakatane, Opotiki, East Cape, Gisborne, Wairoa, Porangahau, Waipukurau, Dannevirke, Cape Campbell, Seaward Kaikouras, Culverden, Cheviot.
Possibility Mag 6 New Zealand. Mag 6 confidence=low.
Volcanoes quiet.

Update. 20 August 1.00pm
Local quakes are quiet.
New solar quake driving conditions are setting in now.
Lower Godley River is added to Mag 4 risk locations.
The forecast period is extended to 21 August.

Update. 21 August 12.00am.
Local quakes were under Mag 4 on 20 August.
Solar conditions arrived on cue but mild and on a slow buildup over several days.
The forecast period is extended to 21 August.
High Magnitude remains a possibility during the period as quakes following on from the Fiji 8.2 evolve.
The Fiji 8.2 is one of the biggest deep quakes ever recorded and the biggest world quake since 2015.
Be careful.

Update. 22 August 1.30pm
22 August.
Offshore Porangahau 4.0 10.36am
A heavy push is underway in the Pacific, including New Zealand.
Mt Cook, Karangarua River are added to Mag 5 risk locations.
Motueka, St Arnaud, Murchison are added to Mag 4 risk locations.
Possibility Mag 6 New Zealand.
The forecast will be extended to 23 August.
Be careful.
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Update. 23 August 12.30am
Local quakes were thankfully quiet off of a weakening solar trend as the end of the period approaches.
The same wasn't true for the Pacific, quakes were big.
The forecast period is extended to 23 August.
Possibility Mag 6 New Zealand.
Be careful.

Update. 24 August 12.30am
23 August.
North of East Cape 4.4 3.44pm
Dart River 3.9 10.59pm
Moderate local quakes picked up today in a quiet local period so far.
There is too much big Pacific action during the period to reduce magnitude risk.
The forecast period is extended to 24 August.
Local quakes seem likely to be isolated.
Possibility Mag 6 New Zealand.

Update. 25 August 12.00am
24 August.
North of East Cape 4.2 8.43am
Local quakes were quiet on 24 August, despite the big Pacific quake spell.
All risk locations and magnitudes are unchanged.
The period is likely to continue for a few days.
Isolated local quakes are possible on 25 August.
Possibility Mag 6 New Zealand.
Be careful.

Update. 25 August 12.30pm
25 August.
Northeast of St. Arnaud 4.4 12.27am
The big Pacific quake spell hasn't arrived in New Zealand and hopefully doesn't.
Solar quake driving conditions have eased substantially today and normally the forecast period would be over.
Due to the unusually large Pacific activity, the forecast period is extended to 26 August and possibly further.
Local quakes seem likely to remain isolated but high magnitude is possible.
Possibility Mag 6 Aotearoa remains.
The forecast may not be updated tonight due to the rugby.
Be careful.

Update. 26 August 12.30pm
Local quakes are ominously quiet.
Pacific quakes are extremely busy.
Solar conditions have picked up today and are strong.
Pressure in North and South Island.
The forecast period is extended to 26 August.
Possibility Mag 6 Aotearoa.
Be careful.

Update. 26 August 11.30pm
Local and Pacific quakes were ominously quiet today despite very strong solar quake driving conditions.
Full moon tonight may have a modulation effect on quakes.
The forecast period is extended to 27 August.
New Zealand remains Mag 6 risk.
Quakes may come as part of a wider Pacific quake cluster.
Be careful.

Update. 28 August 12.30am
Local and Pacific quakes were quiet on 27 August.
Major auroral activity on 26-27 August has simply ramped up the possibility for another big Pacific quake even more in the next days and extended the period.
Quakes have luckily been quiet in New Zealand during the period so far but pressure is on the whole Pacific including New Zealand.
New Zealand remains Mag 6 risk.
Christchurch, Rolleston are added to Mag 4 risk locations.
Be careful.

Update. 29 August 12.00am
Stewart Island 3.8 11.32pm
Local quakes were quiet today.
Solar conditions are weakening two days after the big 26 August aurora but likely to run for 2-3 days longer as the big Pacific quake spell rumbles on.
The period is extended to 29 August.
Quakes are likely to be isolated on 29 August.
Mag 6 is possible.
The forecast map has become very cluttered as the period is extended but risk locations haven't changed so the original map is retained.
Be careful.

Update. 30 August 12.00am
28 August.
200km SW of Snares Islands 4.9 11.31pm
29 August.
Ruatoria 4.0 7.17pm
Local seismologists have replaced the 28 August Stewart Island 3.8 with the SW of Snares 4.9.
Note. A computer issue doesn't allow the Stewart Island 3.8 to be deleted from the map.
Local quakes in addition to Pacific quakes were busy on 29 August.
Todays Vanuatu 7.1 is close to home and indicates local pressure is high.
Seismologists announced today that Ruapehu is heating up.
Unsurprisingly many Pacific volcanoes heated up during the period.
An eruption just now seems unlikely although that may change in following forecast periods.
Isolated quakes are possible on 30 August ahead of a new peak on 1 September before solar conditions and quakes hopefully fade away.
New Zealand remains Mag 6 risk.
Be careful.

Update. 30 August 10.30pm
Local quakes were quiet on 30 August.
Solar conditions are steadily fading toward a brief late peak on 1 September.
Quakes are likely to be very isolated on 31 August.
New Zealand remains Mag 6 risk.
Be careful.

Update. 2 September 10.30pm
Local quakes are quiet 31 August-2 September.
The outlook for a brief late peak on 1 September was a mistake.
Solar conditions steadily weakened 1 September.
Solar conditions have slightly picked up late today and may strengthen.
Isolated Mag 4 quakes seem possible in New Zealand on 3 August.
Higher Magnitude is also possible.
The two week long Pacific quake spell may not be over.
Risk locations from the 20 August original map haven't changed so the map is retained.
Forecast confidence=low.

Update. 3 September 11.30pm
3 September.
Sutherland Sound 3.6 9.15pm
Local quakes were quiet today.
Solar conditions are weak and seem likely to get weaker so quakes, if any, will be very isolated.
The period is unique and the biggest Pacific quake period since April 2014 so the forecasters will keep it running for a few days longer and see what unfolds.
Quakes, if any, are likely to be very isolated on 4 September.
High magnitude is possible.
Forecast confidence=low.
A new forecast period begins 8 September.

Update. 5 September 10.00am
4 August.
Sutherland Sound 3.6 9.15pm
Local quakes are quiet 4/5 September.
Solar conditions were weak but have picked up a little today and enough to drive isolated quake activity.
Pacific conditions are unusual and the forecast is extended to 5 September to cover this uncertainty.
Quakes, if any, are likely to be very isolated.
High magnitude is possible.
Confidence=low.

Summary.
22 August.
Offshore Porangahau 4.0 10.36am
23 August.
North of East Cape 4.4 3.44pm
Dart River 3.9 10.59pm
24 August.
North of East Cape 4.2 8.43am
25 August.
Northeast of St. Arnaud 4.4 12.27am
28 August.
200km SW of Snares Islands 4.9 11.31pm
29 August.
Ruatoria 4.0 7.17pm
3 September.
Sutherland Sound 3.6 9.15pm
This forecast had some good location successes but the big Pacific quake spell didn't come to New Zealand, local quakes were relatively infrequent, the Snares 4.9 was the biggest.
Local quake patterns were very unusual during the period and Mag 6 seems possible in the next forecast period.

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