Pacific Summary. 1 September 2018 - 7 September 2018

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Magnitude 6 risk locations are New Zealand, South of Kermadecs, Kermadec Islands, Tonga, Fiji, South of Fiji, Fuego, Santa Cruz Islands, Makira, Guadalcanal, New Brtain, Bismarck Sea, Northern Papua New Guinea, Molucca Sea, Ceram Sea, South Banda Sea, East Timor, South of Rinjani, Northern Sumatra, South Kuril Islands, Titicaca, North of Valparaiso, Valparaiso, South Sandwich Islands.
Possibility Mag 7 Rinjani, Fiji, Tonga. Confidence=low,
Tsunami risk Tonga. Confidence=low.
Europe Mag 6 risk location is Northern Apennines.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Manaro, Merapi, Krakatoa, Ebeko, Sakurajima, Kuchinoerabujima, Etna.
Note. This forecast was posted on 20 August 5.00am and after the 20 August 2.56am Rinjani 6.9.

Update. 20 August 2.00pm
20 August.
North Tonga Trench/Southeast of Niuatoputapu 5.7 12.43pm
New solar conditions are setting in on cue after going quiet overnight.
Possibility North Tonga Trench Mag 7 and tsunami. Confidence=low.
Power is off and people back out camping out in the open following the big quakes overnight at Rinjani.
Apparently damage and casualties are less than last weeks big quakes...everything is probably already flattened.
Be careful.

Update. 21 August 12.00am
Eruption Sakurajima, Sierra Negra, Krakatoa.
Quakes eased back along with mild solar conditions today.
Biggest quake right in the Tonga danger zone and resting uneasily on a heavy duty tsunami risk location.
Solar conditions are likely to continue for several more days with a possible increase late 23 August.
Isolated big quakes are possible on 21 August.
Hindu Kush is added to Mag 6 risk locations.
The 19 August Fiji 8.2 hasn't made any news due to the lack of damage at the surface and the distraction of the concurrent Rinjani quakes.
The Fiji 8.2 is one of the biggest deep quakes ever recorded and the biggest world quake since 2015.
More action seems likely to follow on from this quake in the next few days.
Be careful.
Kilauea remains quiet.

Update. 22 August 1.00am
21 August.
Bologna/Italy 4.0
Northwest Spain 4.0
Eruption Ebeko.
Pacific quakes and volcanoes went quiet on 21 August following the massive 19 August Fiji 8.2 and Rinjani 6.9.
Quakes may be isolated on 22 August ahead of a pickup in quake driving solar conditions early 23 August.
Mag 7 risk for Pacific remains on 22 August. Confidence=low,
Tonga is higher risk.
Guam, North of Philippines,Northern Ecuador, Iran, Iraq are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Good location success from the Northern Apennines Mag 6 risk outlook.
Also moderate action in Northern Spain.
Apennines seem to be a hotspot for more quakes later near the end of the period.
Be careful.

Update. 22 August 12.30pm
22 August.
Venezuela 7.3 9.31am
Vanuatu/Ambrym 6.6 10.32am
Solar quake driving conditions forecasted for early 23 August have arrived early and two big quakes have unfolded.
Mag 7 risk is justified.
Mag 7+ during the remainder of the period seems possible.
Tonga is higher risk.
New Zealand and Italy/Apennines remain Mag 6 risk.
Volcanoes are quiet with exception of Java.
Merapi is slowly extruding lava and technically in eruption.
Krakatoa is in constant minor eruption.
Rinjani is unstable and quaking.
Pacific is under heavy pressure including New Zealand.
Be careful.

Update. 23 August 1.00am
22 August.
Offshore Oregon 6.2 9.31pm
Eruption Etna.
Solar conditions weakened following the morning big quakes but it didn't stop another big quake.
The big Pacific push seems likely to continue on 23 August.
Quakes may be isolated as solar conditions continue to weaken.
Mag 7+ Pacific risk remains.
Be careful.

Update. 23 August 11.00am
23 August.
Romania 4.0 2.52am
Venezuela 5.8 1.27am
Bougainville 5.8 6.49am
South of New Zealand, Tanzania are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Solar conditions were weak overnight but quakes still kept coming.
Europe is active but nothing big in Apennines hotspot so far.
Biggest Pacific quake so far today the Bougainville 5.8.
Solar quake driving conditions are moderate and fluctuating today.
Possibility Mag 7+ Pacific. Confidence=low.

Update. 24 August 12.00am
23 August.
Rat Islands 6.3 3.35pm
Big Pacific quakes continued on 23 August as the period rumbles ominously on.
Adding Iran to Mag 6 risk locations may yet be justified, Mag 4 quakes are swarming there.
Volcanoes seem to be relatively quiet, the massive switch from eruptions to quakes in the last days very apparent.
Isolated Pacific quakes seem likely to continue on 24 August as solar conditions steadily run out of legs.
Possibility Mag 7+ Pacific. Confidence=low.
HIgher risk locations are Rinjani, Tonga, New Britain, Fiji.
Be careful.

Update. 24 August 10.30am
Pacific quakes are quiet today so far.
Atacama is added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Solar conditions are weakening steadily today and normally the forecast period would be closing.
The 19 August Fiji 8.2 began a Pacific quake sequence that may take a few more days than normal for quakes to evolve.
The whole Pacific seems to be under pressure, reflected by the constant addition of risk locations to the forecast map.
The forecast period is likely to be extended for a few days.
Quakes are likely to become very isolated.
Mag 7+ Pacific remains a possibility. Confidence=low.

Update. 24 August 11.00pm
24 August.
Peru/Brazil border 7.1 9.32pm
Shoring up South America risk locations today with the addition of Atacama was justified despite the Peru 7.1 being located north of Titicaca.
The massive Pacific quake spell seems to be getting bigger.
Forecasted risk locations and timing extensions are almost abandoned as the big quake spell goes through next few days.
Pacific quakes are angry and New Zealand is a risk location.
The forecast period is extended to 25 August.
Quakes may remain isolated.
Possibility Mag 7+ Pacific.
Tonga is higher risk.
USGS vulcanologists report Kilauea to be the quietest they have ever seen. Quakes, gas emissions, lava all gone.
The eruption of KIlauea has ended.
Indian Ocean shield volcano Piton de la Fournaise also went quiet at the same time as Kilauea.
Galapagos Islands shield volcano Sierra Negra is apparently still in eruption but rapidly fading.
All the big shield volcanoes are going quiet.
The massive three month volcanic period has switched to an equally huge quake period.
Sicily volcano Etna (not a shield volcano) is getting hotter as the eruption increases.
Nearby Stromboli is also very hot and Italy still is a quake hotspot.
The Java Volcanic Zone is ominously hot.
Central Java volcano Semeru is degassing.
Krakatoa is in continuous eruption.
Massive quaking is ominously going on around Lombok volcano Rinjani.
Central Java volcano Merapi is extruding lava.
Bali volcano Agung has blown a couple of minor eruptions in the last few months.
Java Volcanic Zone has been the source of two major modern eruptions, Krakatoa 1883 and Tambora 1815.
Could a Java volcano be building up to a big stratospheric eruption?

Update. 26 August 12.00pm
25 August.
Aleutian Islands/East of Atka Island 6.1 4.55am
Iran/Iraq border 6.1 10.13am
Eruption Manam.
The huge quake spell continues.
The 22 August addition of Iran/Iraq to Mag 6 risk locations is justified with perfect location success.
More big action in the Aleutians.
The eruption of Manam off the Papua New Guinea coast to 10 000 meters is large.
The New Britain, Bismarck Sea area is under pressure and remains a Mag 7 risk location
A separate Pacific Mag 7 map will be updated shortly and runs concurrently with this forecast.
Solar quake and eruption driving conditions have picked up considerably today so more big Pacific quakes seem very possible.
The forecast period is extended to 26 August.
Kyushu, Southern Honshu are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Be careful.

Update. 26 August 11.30pm
Pacific quakes went quiet following the morning Mag 6 burst.
Solar conditions have been very strong all day.
A strong quake buildup is underway and may come as a quake cluster when a release happens.
New risk locations keep appearing but the forecast map is already so busy that more areas won't be added.
The whole Pacific is under heavy pressure.
The forecast period is extended to 27 August.
Be careful.

Update. 28 August 1.30am
Pacific quakes were quiet on 27 August.
The 26-27 August aurora was very strong so a quake release soon seems likely.
Solar conditions are strong again as this forecast is posted.
Volcanoes are active during the period and may continue erupting on 28 August.
The Pacific is under heavy pressure.
Be careful.

Update. 29 August 12.30am
28 August.
Timor 6.2 7.08pm
Eruption Merapi, Pacaya, Etna.
Good Timor location success as Pacific quakes pickup.
Volcanoes are active.
Merapi is slowly extruding lava.
Pacaya has erupted lightly.
Etna was settling down following the 23 August eruption but got busy again on 27 August as the big aurora came through.
Krakatoa is blowing regular small strombolian explosions with the occasional larger rumble.
Solar conditions are weakening today but likely to run for 2-3 days longer.
No news for Manam or Manaro.
The forecast period is extended to 29 August.
Volcanic activity may dominate.
Isolated Pacific Mag 6 quakes are possible.
New Zealand remains Mag 6 risk.
Be careful.

Update. 30 August 12.00am
29 August.
Northeast of Guam 6.4 10.35am
South of Vanuatu 7.1 3.51pm
The Mag 7 map has finally got something on it as the big Pacific quake period rumbles on for another day.
The forecast was ambitiously chasing action further north at Erromango when all of Vanuatu was a more prudent choice.
The Guam 6.4 has boosted location success.
Solar conditions are mild but steady and seem set to stay that way through to another peak on 1 September after which the period may finally fade away.
Isolated Mag 6 quakes are possible on 30 August.
Baja California is added to Mag 6 risk locations.
New Zealand remains Mag 6 risk.
Be careful.
Volcanos are hot but no major explosions today except at Etna which picked up on 28 August and is still pushing out lava.
New Zealand volcano Ruapehu is also slightly hot but an eruption seems unlikely just now.

Update. 30 August 11.00pm
30 August.
Bosnia 4.9
Pacific quakes and volcanos were quiet on 30 August.
The Bosnia 4.9 is significant but not in the Northern Apennines risk location.
Solar conditions are steadily weakening on 31 August ahead of a brief late peak on 1 September.
Pacific quakes are likely to be very isolated on 31 August.
Possibility Pacific volcanic activity on 31 August.

Update. 2 September 11.00pm
Pacific quakes went quiet following the 29 August South of Vanuatu 7.1
Pacific volcanoes are mostly quiet.
The brief late solar peak forecasted for late 1 September never arrived.
The two week quake period is possibly the biggest period since 2012.
The 19 August Fiji 8.2 which began the period is the biggest global quake in three years and hasn't scratched the surface of mainstream news.
Solar activity is picking up slightly late on 2 September.
Isolated Mag 6+ quakes are possible on 3 September.
Southern Sumatra is added to Mag 6 risk locations.
The original forecast map is retained, risk locations haven't changed much since the beginning of the period.
Forecast confidence=low.

Update. 3 September 11.00pm
3 September.
Bismarck Sea 5.5 7.15pm
Eruption Manaro.
Solar conditions are really weak but the period is unique and the forecasters aren't ready to end the forecast period despite quakes falling away.
Moderate quakes in SW Pacific hotspot and risk location Bismarck Sea today but generally quakes were easing back.
Pacific Mag 6 quakes are likely to be very isolated on 4 September but high magnitude still seems possible.
Risk locations are unchanged so the map is retained despite becoming cluttered during the biggest Pacific quake period in 4 years.
The forecast may be retained ahead of a new quake period beginning 8 September.

Update. 5 September 10.30am
4 September.
East of Galapagos Islands 5.9 11.37am
Pacific quakes were below Mag 6 on 4 September as solar conditions steadily faded.
Solar conditions have picked up slightly today and are enough to drive quakes.
Very isolated Mag 6+ quake activity is possible on 5 September.
Risk locations are unchanged.
Confidence=low.

Summary.
20 August.
North Tonga Trench/Southeast of Niuatoputapu 5.7 12.43pm
Eruption Sakurajima, Sierra Negra, Krakatoa.
21 August.
Bologna/Italy 4.0
Northwest Spain 4.0
Eruption Ebeko.
22 August.
Venezuela 7.3 9.31am
Vanuatu/Ambrym 6.6 10.32am
Offshore Oregon 6.2 9.31pm
Eruption Etna.
23 August.
Romania 4.0 2.52am
Venezuela 5.8 1.27am
Bougainville 5.8 6.49am
Rat Islands 6.3 3.35pm
24 August.
Peru/Brazil border 7.1 9.32pm
25 August.
Aleutian Islands/East of Atka Island 6.1 4.55am
Iran/Iraq border 6.1 10.13am
Eruption Manam.
28 August.
Timor 6.2 7.08pm
Eruption Merapi, Pacaya, Etna.
29 August.
Northeast of Guam 6.4 10.35am
South of Vanuatu 7.1 3.51pm
30 August.
Bosnia 4.9
3 September.
Bismarck Sea 5.5 7.15pm
Eruption Manaro.
4 September.
East of Galapagos Islands 5.9 11.37am
6 September.
Hokkaido 6.6 6.07am
7 September.
Southeast of Fiji 7.8 3.49am
The biggest quake period since 2012 at least is still underway and may even increase.
A new forecast follows directly from todays Fiji 7.8.
The map has become very cluttered and unwieldy from such a long quake period which began with the 19 August Fiji 8.2.
The map demonstrates the clustering effect of quakes which would be less obvious if daily maps were made so the map was retained.
The forecast wasn't regularly updated near the end of the period and the concurrent 25-31 August Mag 7 forecast was dropped in early September.
The message is clear however through the period. Big quakes are here.
There were some excellent location successes during the period.
Europe quakes also increased but the main Apennines risk location only got to Mag 4.
Etna sprang to life during the period after a year of quiet.
The eruption of Kilauea seems to have ended since the volcano went quiet a month ago.
The same isn't true for Mauna Loa. An eruption soon is possible.








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