Pacific Summary. 7 September 2018 - 10 September 2018
Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of New Zealand, New Zealand, Banda Sea, Eastern Himalayas, Luzon, Marianas Trench/South of Guam, Kyushu, Southern Honshu, Izu Islands, Baja California, Costa Rica, Colombia. Volcanic activity may increase. Merapi, Krakatoa, Sakurajima, Halema'uma'u, Pu'u O'o, Manam, Manaro. Degassing at Kilauea summit may occur. Quake activity at Mauna Loa may increase. Update. 9 September 10.00am 7 September. Panama/Colombia border 5.6 1.47pm Central Ecuador 6.2 2.12pm South of Atacama 5.8 2.39pm Eruption Merapi, Manaro, Sakurajima. 8 September. Yunan/China 5.6 2.31pm Philippines/Mindanao 6.1 7.16pm South of Vanuatu 5.7 10.02pm Eruption Krakatoa, Manam. Solar quake driving conditions arrived on cue and quakes soon followed. A South America cluster of 3 quakes within an hour, two of them around the edges of expanded risk location Colombia. The Yunan 5.6 was slightly east of the Eastern Himalaya risk location but not by far. The Java Volcanic Zone is red hot. Krakatoa is in constant eruption. Merapi is steadily extruding lava and new player Semeru, noted as Indonesias most active volcano, is pluming. Kilauea is quiet. Pu'u O'o is degassing but it is hard to tell if this is significant, data is confusing. Mauna Loa is quiet. Solar conditions have eased a little today so quakes are likely to become isolated. High magnitude, including Mag 7, is still possible. Peru, Central Ecuador are added to Mag 6 risk locations. The Central Ecuador risk location, SW of Sangay, is the same location as the 7 Sept. 6.2 but isn't marked on the map. Popocatepetl is added to volcanos. Update. 10 September 12.00am 9 September. South of Tonga 5.5 10.27am South of Fiji 5.5 12.06pm Eruption Pacaya. Pacific quakes were below Mag 6 following the weakening solar trend. The biggest quakes were close to home. The eruption of Pacaya was brief but produced some lava. Popocatepetl is pluming, justifying the addition to risk locations. Latin America is heating up. Pacific quakes seem likely to remain isolated on 10 September. The massive three week long Pacific quake period doesn't seem about to end very soon so Mag 7 remains possible. Sangay is added to volcanoes. Update. 10 September 9.00am 10 September. Solomon Islands/Makira 6.7 7.31am Southwest Pacific is right in the zone today. Big quakes yesterday north of New Zealand and Solomons today. Solar conditions are quiet as this update is posted but likely to switch back on again and fluctuate weakly so more isolated quake activity is possible. Mag 7+ remains a possibility. Southwest Pacific and South America are higher risk. Mag 7 location confidence=low. Southern Ecuador is added to Mag 6 risk locations. A new solar and quake peak is due late 11 September. Be careful. Summary. 7 September. Panama/Colombia border 5.6 1.47pm Central Ecuador 6.2 2.12pm South of Atacama 5.8 2.39pm Eruption Merapi, Manaro, Sakurajima. 8 September. Yunan/China 5.6 2.31pm Philippines/Mindanao 6.1 7.16pm South of Vanuatu 5.7 10.02pm Eruption Krakatoa, Manam. 9 September. South of Tonga 5.5 10.27am South of Fiji 5.5 12.06pm Eruption Pacaya. 10 September. Solomon Islands/Makira 6.7 7.31am Southwest of L'Esperance Rock 6.9 4.19pm Eruption Popocatepetl. This forecast could be the 2013 long term outlook for quakes. Bigger quakes, spaced apart. The period is huge and more to come from early 11 September, strong new solar conditions have arrived early and are here now. A new forecast is being processed. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
