Aotearoa Summary. 11 September 2018 - 16 September 2018

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Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of New Zealand, North of New Zealand, Taihape, Central Taranaki Bight.
Magnitude 5 risk locations are Puysegur Point, Manapouri, Northwest Arm Te Anau, Sutherland Sound, Dart River, Lower Landsborough River, Karangarua River, Murchison, St Arnaud, Motueka, Nelson, D'Urville Island, Mana, Kapiti, Levin, Wanganui, Southern Taranaki, Taumarunui, Taupo, Atiamuri, Rotorua, Murupara, Urewera, Tauranga, Opotiki, East Cape, Tolaga Bay, Waipukurau, Dannevirke, Eketahuna, Porangahau, Castlepoint, Masterton.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Rolleston, Otira, Culverden, Kaikoura, Cape Campbell, Seddon, Ward, South of Wellington, Turakirae Head.
Risk locations are similar to the previous forecast period but magnitude risk is higher.
Big quakes, if any, seem more likely in western locations and hopefully too deep to cause any damage at the surface.
Perigee moon may modulate quakes to low tide.
Low tide Central Taranaki Bight= 5.00am, 5.00pm
The forecast period is likely to be extended.
Be careful.

Update. 12 September 12.30am
South of Kermadecs 4.6 3.41pm
Local quakes went quiet following yesterdays L'Esperance Rock 6.9.
Solar conditions have been strong and steady today.
A pressure buildup accompanying the solar conditions is likely to release over the next three days.
The forecast period is extended to 12 September.
St Arnaud, Murchison are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
The map is almost the same as the previous forecast period but higher magnitude.
Big quakes, if any, will hopefully come in a western location where quakes are typically deeper and less damaging at the surface.
Mag 6 location confidence=low.
Be careful.

Update. 13 September 11.00am
12 September.
Offshore New Brighton 3.8 12.15pm
South of Kermadecs 4.6 1.56pm
The Christchurch lunchtime quake was widely felt but weak and the first felt for a long time by many people.
Christchurch is rarely forecasted these days so the inclusion of Rolleston as a risk location seems justified.
The quake was lunar modulated to low tide.
More light action in Christchurch/Rolleston seems possible during the remainder of the period.
Solar conditions are beginning to weaken today and quakes seem likely to unwind next two or three days, building up towards 15 September.
Mag 6 is possible.
Be careful.

Update. 14 September 12.30pm
13 September.
South of Kermadecs 4.8 6.27pm
South of Kermadecs 4.0 10.10pm
14 September.
South of Kermadecs 5.3 5.34am
North of New Zealand is rumbling.
These quakes are south of the 10 September L'Esperance Rock 6.9...closer to New Zealand.
Solar quake driving conditions are steady, pressure has been building for a few days.
A quake release seems possible any time.
South of Kermadec Islands, Kermadec Islands, Tonga are now highest risk Pacific locations for Mag 7+ quakes and possible tsunami.
The forecast period is extended to 15 September.
All risk locations remain the same.
Mag 6 risk location confidence=low.
Hopefully big quakes, if any, will be in deeper western locations where damage at the surface is reduced.
Be careful.

Summary.
11 September.
South of Kermadecs 4.6 3.41pm
12 September.
Offshore New Brighton 3.8 12.15pm
South of Kermadecs 4.6 1.56pm
13 September.
South of Kermadecs 4.8 6.27pm
South of Kermadecs 4.0 10.10pm
14 September.
South of Kermadecs 5.3 5.34am
15 September.
South of Kermadecs 4.4 4.00am
16 September.
South of Kermadecs 4.5 12.01pm
Hanmer Springs 3.8 10.13am
Big action continues north of New Zealand and south of the 10 September L'Esperance Rock 6.9.
New Zealand quakes were locked up during the period which isn't good, a slow release is best.
Solar conditions are increasing again late on 16 September as a new quake period rapidly approaches.
North Island East Coast is under stress.
The addition of Rolleston to Mag 4 risk locations was justified.
Christchurch and Rolleston are rarely forecasted these days so the location success will keep the sceptics guessing.




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