Aotearoa Summary. 17 September 2018 - 26 September 2018

Click to Enlarge
Magnitude 6 risk locations are Ruatoria, Taumarunui, North of D'Urville Island, South of Kermadecs. Mag 6 location confidence=low.
Magnitude 5 risk locations are Lake Te Anau, Geroge Sound, Murchison, St Arnaud, Central Taranaki Bight, East of Taranaki, Atiamuri, Tokoroa, Rotorua, Whakatane, Opotiki, White Island, East Cape, Wairoa, Waipukurau, Dannevirke, Porangahau, Eketahuna, Masterton.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Hawkes Bay, Turakirae Head, Cape Campbell, Kaikoura, Culverden, Seaward Kaikouras, Dart River, Cascade River.
Big quakes are just north of New Zealand.
Be careful.

Update. 18 September 12.30am
17 September.
Northeast of East Cape 3.9 3.08am
Local quakes stayed quiet following heavy Kermadecs quake action this morning.
Regardless, the earlier Northeast of East Cape 3.9 gave good location success.
Solar conditions are fluctuating tonight and strong enough to drive quakes.
Mag 6 is possible in New Zealand on 18 September.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.
Be careful.

Update. 18 September.
18 September.
Rotorua/Lake Okataina 4.8 1.36pm
North of East Cape 4.0 8.13pm
The 150 km deep Rotorua 4.8 was widely felt as far south as Wellington and Blenheim.
A local Mag 3 quakestorm followed the Kermadecs 5.2 tonight.
Solar conditions are moderate today and enough to drive quakes on 19 September.
Solar conditions may begin to fade on 19 September.
The unprecedented month long Pacific Mag 7 quake spell is bringing new patterns and timing confidence is decreasing as forecast periods become longer in accordance with the Little Ice Age solar conditions now affecting Earth.
Quakes, eruptions and storms become more clustered and more extreme in a Little Ice Age.
Multiple major storms in the last week, including Typhoon Mangkhut, Hurricane Florence and others all came with the latest spectacular auroras.
Major sunspot activity last year at this time drove several devastating Caribbean hurricanes and the Mexico 8.1 in another cluster.
Be careful.

Update. 19 September 12.00pm
South of Taranaki 4.4 10.11am
The forecast map is looking more believable today as quakes arrive in higher risk locations.
Solar conditions are persistent so more quakes seem possible.
Local Mag 6 is possible.
Be careful.

Update. 20 September 11.00am
19 September.
Northwest Arm Te Anau 4.6 7.47pm
Two quakes in and near Mag 5 risk zones on 19 September have given the forecast map some substance.
Some quakes north of New Zealand aren't recorded on to the map due to confusing Geonet data.
Plenty of Mag 4/5 quakes just north of New Zealand during the period.
Solar conditions are fading today but after a month of Mag 7 quakes and the heaviest quake period observed in six years the forecast period is extended to catch late residual quakes.
Local Mag 6 is possible.

Update. 21 September 10.00am
20 September.
Whakamaru 3.8 8.30am
West of Kapiti 3.8 8.56pm
21 September.
Northeast of East Cape 4.7 1.44am
Quakes eased on 20 September along with fading solar quake driving conditions.
The period has brought some great location success.
Quake patterns have changed dramatically since the massive deep 19 August Fiji 8.2, the biggest world quake in three years and at an ominous depth.
More action will follow the Fiji 8.2 and may take months to evolve.
The new quake patterns make sense but timing on following action is going to be an issue with the kind of Little Ice Age solar conditions now upon us.
Prior to 2018 solar conditions were more sunspot and coronal mass ejection inclined but sunspots are gone as the sun cools and climate on Earth inevitably follows.
Any forecaster who hasn't learnt sunspot signature by now will have problems in the future because sunspots are mostly gone, possibly for a long time as the Earth enters a cooler climatic period.
The last major sunspot in September 2017 drove the Caribbean hurricane series and Mexico 8.1 (see 8 Sept. 2017 Pacific forecast)
The effects of the Fiji 8.2 may take a year or more to evolve and whatever they are... a big quake, an eruption in Auckland or Volcanic Plateau, the forecasters here will be following the action with interest.
The forecast period is extended to 21 September.
Local quakes are likely to be isolated with the weak solar conditions but there is still too much action to drop the forecast today.
Local Mag 6 is possible.

Update. 22 September 10.45am
21 September.
South of Wellington 3.7 3.53pm
The South of Wellington 3.7 came 13 minutes after the Fiji 5.8, 5.9 double quake and is unrelated to an inexperienced observer or seismologist.
Solar conditions faded on 21 September so quakes were isolated.
Strong new solar quake driving conditions were expected on 23 September but have arrived early and quakes are likely to pick up today.
The forecast period is extended to 23 September.
All risk locations and magnitudes are unchanged.
Be careful.

Update. 24 September 12.00am
23 September.
Southwest Arm Te Anau 3.8 2.45am
Local quakes were active but low magnitude on 23 September.
Initially strong solar conditions are now easing back as the end of the period approaches.
The period is extended to 24 September.
All risk locations and magnitudes are unchanged.
The future is never certain and quake forecasting is always in uncharted waters.
The way ahead has become even more uncertain with the recent Mag 7 quake spell.
New quake patterns are emerging and the forecasters intuitively feel that more Mag 7 action is just around the corner in the Southwest Pacific, possibly Tonga.
Mag 6 still seems possible in New Zealand.
Be careful.

Update. 25 September 12.ooam
24 September.
South of Kermadecs 4.6 7.33pm
Local quakes were quiet on 24 September but quakes north of New Zealand are active.
A small Christchurch quake swarm is underway but unlikely to increase.
Mild lunar influence of non perigee full moon may push a few extra quakes in Christchurch, quakes tend to spread out with lunar influence.
Solar conditions are right on the quake driving threshold and falling.
25 September is likely to be the last day of the forecast period.
Big action north of New Zealand is possible.
Local Mag 6 quakes are still possible on 25 September.
Mag 6 confidence=low.
Note. The forecast may not be updated on 25 Sept.

Summary.
17 September.
Northeast of East Cape 3.9 3.08am
18 September.
Rotorua/Lake Okataina 4.8 1.36pm
North of East Cape 4.0 8.13pm
19 September.
South of Taranaki 4.4 10.11am
Northwest Arm Te Anau 4.6 7.47pm
20 September.
Whakamaru 3.8 8.30am
West of Kapiti 3.8 8.56pm
21 September.
Northeast of East Cape 4.7 1.44am
South of Wellington 3.7 3.53pm
23 September.
Southwest Arm Te Anau 3.8 2.45am
24 September.
South of Kermadecs 4.6 7.33pm
25 September.
Northwest Arm Te Anau 4.1 1.51am
26 September.
South of Kermadecs 5.0 7.41am
Northern Hawkes Bay 4.1 7.44am
South of Kermadecs 4.6 2.54pm
This forecast went looking for deep western and Volcanic Plateau quakes with possible Mag 6 due to ongoing heavy quake action north of New Zealand.
Very good location success in or near highest risk areas.
The biggest daily quakes are plotted on to the map.
Big quakes luckily never came and the low confidence Mag 6 risk wasn't justified, the period went volcanic in the Pacific and quakes eased as a result.
The biggest quake of the period, the significant 18 September 150km deep Rotorua 4.8 was felt as far away as Wellington.
The Hawkes Bay 4.1 followed three minutes after the South of Kermadecs 5.0.
Lake Te Anau is quake swarming and further action seems possible soon.
A Christchurch Mag 2 swarm during the period is further indication of SW Pacific pressure.
The ongoing heavy deep quake action north of New Zealand is likely to see more Mag 6 risk locations posted in following forecasts.
Southwest Pacific is very unstable.
Solar conditions are just under the quake driving threshold on 27 September and could still wind up an isolated quake in the next few days but more likely north of New Zealand.
Solar conditions are usually higher in spring and autumn, auroras have been spectacular in recent weeks, quakes have followed.
New solar quake driving conditions are several days away, global quakes are likely to ease back significantly until then.






Content © Roary Arbon 2013 - 2016
Website Design by Go Tech.