Pacific Summary. 17 September 2018 - 26 September 2018

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Magnitude 7 risk locations are Tonga, Kermadec Islands, South of Kermadec Islands, Santa Cruz Islands, Makira, Peru.
Magnitude 6 risk locations are Fiji, South of Fiji, New Britain, Bismarck Sea, Northern Papua, East Banda Sea, Southern Sumatra, Molucca Sea, Southern Philippines, Guam, Northern Marianas Islands, Eastern Honshu, North Kuril Islands.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Krakatoa, Suwanosejima, Sakurajima, Ebeko, Sarychev, Sangay, Nevados de Chillan, Piton de la Fournaise.

Update. 17 September 12.00pm
17 September.
North of Kermadec Islands 6.5 9.11am
Heavy action this morning in Mag 7 risk location.
The North of Kermadecs 6.5 was deep and too small to make a tsunami.
New solar quake driving conditions are building today.
More Pacific quakes seem possible.
The forecast period is extended to 18 September.

Update. 18 September 12.30am
17 September.
Eruption Krakatoa, Sakurajima, Ebeko, Piton de la Fournaise.
Pacific quakes went quiet following the North of Kermadecs 6.5.
The deep quake is ominous, right in the middle of the Mag 7 risk zone.
Solar conditions are fluctuating tonight and easily strong enough to drive more big quakes.
The month long Mag 7 quake spell may not be over yet.
Hopefully any ongoing action will stay in the remote Kermadec Islands.
Piton de la Fournaise is fountaining lava to 30 meters from three fissures.

Update. 18 September 11.30pm
18 September.
Kermadec Islands/Macauley Island 5.2 9.24pm
Southwest Indian Ocean 6.0 7.27pm
Eruption Sarychev.
The Mag 6 spell continued in the Indian Ocean today.
North of New Zealand, Tonga and Peru are ominously quiet.
The Macauley 5.2 brought a Mag 3 quakestorm into New Zealand.
Solar conditions are still moderate and more Mag 6 action seems likely on 19 Sept. and solar conditions beginning to fade.
Rinjani is added to Mag 6 risk locations.

Update. 19 September 11.30am
18 September.
Solomon Islands/New Georgia 5.8 11.57pm
Southwest Pacific continues to be the hotspot.
Persistent solar quake driving conditions today could result in more quakes.
Kermadec Islands, Tonga are higher risk.
American quake forecaster Dutchsinse with 300 000 followers is back on Internet today after being blocked on Facebook and Youtube.
He has multiple links and tech experts helping him. Efforts by seismologists to remove him aren't working.
The latest attack on him has obviously come from the New Zealand Government.
A big local quake which he is forecasting might see him back in the media spotlight and another attempt to shut him down by the sadly deficient seismologists.

Update. 20 September 11.00am
Pacific quakes have eased as solar conditions fade.
Residual quakes and eruptions seem possible today but likely to be isolated.
The period is likely to be extended following a month of Mag 7 quakes, cutting off the forecast period too soon is a past mistake.
Tonga, Kermadec Islands, Peru are higher risk locations.
Western Iran, HIndu Kush are added to Mag 6 risk locations.

Update. 21 September 11.00am
Pacific quakes were below Mag 6 on 20 September.
Volcano data is incomplete today but the absence of quakes late in the period may have been taken up by eruptions.
Eruptions typically follow quakes in a forecast period, coming late in the period or soon after.
Southwest Pacific, including Kermadecs has once again been the hotspot during the period and unnervingly close to home.
Quakes are likely to be very isolated on 21 September as solar conditions fade away.

Update. 22 September 10.30am
21 September.
Fiji/E. Viti Levu 5.8, 5.9 3.40pm
The Fiji double quake was the only real Pacific activity as solar conditions fell away.
New solar conditions were expected on 23 September but have arrived early and are strong.
The forecast period is extended to 23 September.
Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
All other risk locations are unchanged.
Tonga, Fiji, Kermadec Islands, South of Kermadec Islands are higher risk.

Update. 24 September 1.00am
23 September.
Guam 6.4 5.52pm
Eruption Piton de la Fournaise, Sakurajima, Ebeko, Karymsky.
Good quake location success but quakes are easing as the period becomes very volcanic.
Northern Kuril Islands and Kamchatka Peninsula are hot.
Latin American volcanoes are hot. Popocatepetl, Turrialba, Pacaya, Santiaguito.
Solar conditions are easing today as the end of the period approaches.
Tonga seems too quiet given the heavy Fiji, Kermadecs quake activity.
Tonga is higher risk on 24 September.

Update. 25 September 12.00am
24 September.
Eruption Piton de la Fournaise, Sakurajima.
Pacific quakes went quiet on 24 September but volcanoes filled the energy gap with many volcanoes pluming.
Popocatepetl, Ebeko, Sangay, Karymsky, Krakatoa are hot but not fully erupting.
The 22 September Facebook posting speculated an increase in the eruption of Piton de la Fournaise with increasing solar conditions and this has happened.
Vulcanologists at the remote Reunion island volcano report an increase in volcanic tremor and lava flow.
The eruption seems likely to weaken again soon and will probably end as solar conditions fade away.
Quakes seem likely to become very isolated on 25 September.
Southern Kuril Islands are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Tonga, Kermadec Islands remain Pacific Mag 7 quake hotspots.
Mag 7 confidence=low.

Summary.
17 September.
North of Kermadec Islands 6.5 9.11am
Eruption Krakatoa, Sakurajima, Ebeko, Piton de la Fournaise.
18 September.
Kermadec Islands/Macauley Island 5.2 9.24pm
Southwest Indian Ocean 6.0 7.27pm
Solomon Islands/New Georgia 5.8 11.57pm
Eruption Sarychev.
21 September.
Fiji/E. Viti Levu 5.8, 5.9 3.40pm
23 September.
Guam 6.4 5.52pm
Eruption Piton de la Fournaise, Sakurajima, Ebeko, Karymsky.
26 September.
Fiji 5.7 12.37pm
Eruption Etna, Popocateptl, Veniaminof, Sangay.
Solar quake driving conditions arrived on cue and quakes followed.
Heavy deep action with the Kermadecs 6.5 was ominous but quakes never got bigger than that and Mag 7 wasn't justified during the period.
Frustratingly, the Sulawesi 7.5 came after the forecast period ended, a casual Facebook posting was the only outlook given for this quake.
Regardless, Mag 6 quakes in risk locations gave substance to the forecast map, despite a few quiet days during the period.
Volcanoes were active during the period.
New eruptions at Etna, Veniaminof and Popocatepetl.
The eruption of Piton de la Fournaise is now three weeks long.
Many other volcanoes were pluming or hot.
Quakes became isolated from 23 September as eruptions took over and the forecast was dropped on 25 September with a casual Facebook posting that solar conditions were just under quake driving threshold and isolated activity was possible.
A low confidence forecast should have been posted although Sulawesi wasn't on the location radar.








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