Pacific Summary. 1 October 2018 - 3 October 2018

Click to Enlarge
Quake Summary. 27 September- 3 October, 2018.
No forecast was offered for the period. (See 17-26 September Pacific Summary)

28 September.
Sulawesi 6.1 8.00pm
Sulawesi 7.5 10.57pm
30 September.
Fiji 6.6 11.52pm
1 October.
Eruption Manam.
2 October.
Sumba 6.0 12.59pm
Sumba 5.9 1.16pm
Eruption Soputan.
Solar conditions were just under the quake driving threshold and occasionally above.
A low confidence forecast for the period should have been posted.
The Sulawesi 7.5 and tsunami has devastated the coastline and taken possibly thousands of lives.
Sulawesi is a poorly studied area and generally doesn't receive big quakes so was never on the forecast location radar.
Other big quakes during the period, including the very disturbed Fiji, Tonga, Kermadecs region.
New Zealand quakes were below Mag 4 during the period.
The 3 October eruption of Soputan is also on the island of Sulawesi.
The correlation between eruptions and quakes is clear to see on Sulawesi during the period.
Volcanic action usually follows quakes.
A new period begins early 4 October and is likely to include the same risk locations.
A forecast will be posted tonight for Pacific and New Zealand.

Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2020