Aotearoa Summary. 8 October 2018 - 12 October 2018

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Magnitude 6 risk locations are North of Milford Sound, Mt Tutoko, Lower Hollyford River, Pyke River, Olivine Ranges.
Magnitude 5 risk locations are Taumarunui, Taupo, Ruapehu, Tokoroa, Whakatane, Opotiki, East Cape, Wairoa, Northern Hawkes Bay, Waipukurau, Dannevirke, Eketahuna, Porangahau.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Te Anau, South of Motueka, North of D'Urville Island, South of Wellington, South of Taranaki.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 9 October 12.00am
Local quakes were quiet on 8 October.
Solar conditions arrived on cue and strong.
The deep Kermadecs 5.5 is likely to bring more action in the next few days in the Kermadecs or further south.
North of Milford Sound has quaked steadily all day below Mag 4, indicating possible foreshock activity.
More action at this risk location seems possible in the next few days as the forecast period progresses.
The forecast period is extended to 9 October.
All risk locations and magnitudes are unchanged.

Update. 11 October 12.30am
9 October.
Hawkes Bay 3.8 3.57am
Pacific and local quakes are quiet through the period so far.
Solar conditions are strong and steady in a buildup phase.
North of New Zealand remains a high risk zone for big quakes.
Mag 5 remains possible in New Zealand.
Cape Campbell, Seddon, Ward, Kaikoura, Conway River, Culverden are added to Mag 4 risk locations.
The Pacific is showing signs of being volcanic so quakes may remain quiet.
Local quakes are likely to be isolated on 11 October then increasing to a quake peak 13 October.

Update. 12 October 12.00am
11 October.
Northwest of D'Urville Island 3.9 12.48am
South of Kermadecs 4.3 10.36am
Waiau 4.4 9.25pm
The decision to add Kaikoura, Conway River, Culverden to Mag 4 risk locations is justified.
The Waiau 4.4 was right in the zone.
A big Pacific quake day hasn't been matched in New Zealand.
Mag 5 remains a possibility on 12 October.
Quakes are likely to be isolated but Magnitude could be high.

Summary.
9 October.
Hawkes Bay 3.8 3.57am
11 October.
Northwest of D'Urville Island 3.9 12.48am
South of Kermadecs 4.3 10.36am
Waiau 4.4 9.25pm
12 October.
North of Milford Sound 3.5 5.19pm
Mt Tutoko 3.5 7.17pm
This forecast shows good location success but despite big Pacific quakes during the period, Mag 6 risk at Milford Sound wasn't justified.
North of Milford Sound seems likely to remain a risk location in the next forecast period.
The biggest daily quakes are plotted onto the forecast map.

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