Pacific Summary. 8 October 2018 - 12 October 2018

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Magnitude 6 risk locations are Fiordland, South of Kermadec Islands, Kermadec Islands, Tonga, South of Fiji, Fiji, New Britain, Molucca Sea, Sulawesi/Palu, Southern Sulawesi, South of Java, Sumatra, South of Japan, Southeastern Japan, Southern Kamchatka Peninsula, Offshore Oregon, Haiti, Atacama, Vallenar, Valparaiso, South of Valdivia.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Piton de la Fournaise, Manam, Barren Island, Kerinci, Krakatoa, Gamalama, Soputan, Sakurajima, Ebeko, Popocatepetl.
The period is likely to be extended.

Update. 9 October 12.00am
8 October.
North of Raoul Island 5.5 6.42am
Eruption Ebeko.
Solar conditions arrived on cue but quakes haven't followed.
Biggest Pacific quake was an ominously deep Kermadecs 5.5 which may bring following action in the Kermadecs or further south.
The period may be going volcanic.
Many volcanoes reported to be pluming.
Solar conditions are strong so action is very likely over the next few days, earlier for quakes, later for eruptions.
Gulf of California, Colima, El Salvador, Costa Rica are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
The forecast period is extended to 9 October.

Update. 11 October 12.00am
9 October.
South of Kamchatka Peninsula 6.0 8.45pm
Eruption Sarychev.
10 October.
New Britain 5.4 2.03am
South of Kamchatka received a double whammy with the quake and the eruption of Sarychev.
Many volcanoes are hot.
Quakes are quiet.
Solar conditions are running steady and strong in a buildup phase.
The forecast period is extended to 11 October.
A release over the next three days seems possible, increasing towards the end of the period.
Northern Vanuatu, Makira are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Possibility Mag 7 Tonga, Vanuatu. Confidence=low.
Ambrym, Mauna Loa are added to volcanoes.
The period may continue to be volcanic.

Update. 11 October 12.00pm
11 October.
Northeast of Java 6.0 7.44am
New Britain 7.0, 6.3, 5.9, 5.9, 5.9 9.48am
Quakes have sprung to life as the forecast period advances.
Mag 7 is justified but not including New Britain as Mag 7 risk was a mistake.
Regardless, more big quakes are possible next few days.

Update. 11 October 2.00pm
11 October.
South of Kamchatka 6.5 1.14pm
Big quakes are coming hard today.
Luckily this remote area is inhabited mostly by walruses.
Solar conditions are strong and steady.
Volcanic data may come later today.
Watch out for an announcement from USGS vulcanologists about Mauna Loa.

Update. 12 October 12.00am
11 October.
Eruption Krakatoa
11 October turned into a big quake day in the Pacific.
Quakes and eruptions are clustered over time and distance due to the influence of the sun which this map clearly shows.
Weather is also powered up by solar conditions and today USA meteorologists were surprised by the strength of Cat 4 Hurricane Michael.
Big storms in India, Arabia and Majorca which received a huge flood, drowning several people.
Solar conditions are set to last at least two more days and may blend into a new quake period beginning 14 October.
Significant seismic increase at Mauna Loa today indicates an eruption is possible soon but probably not in this forecast period.
Volcano data is typically slow in arriving so more eruptions from remote locations such as Manam and Ambrym may be notified later.
South America quakes are ominously quiet.
The forecast period is extended to 12 October.
Mag 7 remains possible.

Summary.
8 October.
North of Raoul Island 5.5 6.42am
Eruption Ebeko.
9 October.
South of Kamchatka Peninsula 6.0 8.45pm
Eruption Sarychev.
10 October.
New Britain 5.4 2.03am
11 October.
Northeast of Java 6.0 7.44am
New Britain 7.0, 6.3, 5.9, 5.9, 5.9 9.48am
South of Kamchatka 6.5 1.14pm
Eruption Krakatoa
12 October.
New Britain 5.5 3.52pm
Eruption Barren Island.
This forecast had many successes.
Solar quake driving conditions arrived on cue with an ominous deep Kermadecs 5.5 but fortunately no following quakes... so far.
Deep Fiji and South of Fiji quakes are regular following the 19 August Fiji 8.2 and likely to bring more big quakes for several months...this is the new forecast challenge.
Kamchatka and New Britain were quake hotspots and good location success.
Northern Kuril Islands volcano Sarychev also went off, luckily Kamchatka and Kurils are remote.
The 11 October Northeast of Java 6.0 was frustratingly too far from the South of Java risk location to be a real forecast success.
Many volcanoes are hot.
All the forecasted eruption risks were hot, pluming or erupting.
Vanuatu volcano Ambrym is very hot with high gas emissions and very active lava lakes, Benbow and Marum but not in eruption.
The first ever attempt at forecasting an eruption of giant Hawaii volcano Mauna Loa was premature at least.
Seismicity increased at Mauna Loa during the period but wasn't enough to drive an eruption.
Regardless, forecast gains were made at Mauna Loa and so long as the volcano keeps expanding, another forecast attempt is likely.
The forecast was dropped on 13 October as solar conditions faded but quakes kept coming at lower frequency for several days and are summarised on a separate map.

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