Aotearoa Summary. 25 October 2018 - 30 October 2018
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Lake Te Anau, North of Milford Sound, Olivine Ranges, Cascade River, Pyke River, Hanmer Springs, Conway River, Kaikoura, Cape Campbell, Upper Awatere Valley, Branch River, Tapawera, North of D'Urville Island, South of Taranaki, South of Wellington, Turakirae Head, Cape Campbell, South of Wanganui, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Porangahau, Wairoa, Northern Hawkes Bay, Ruatoria, Tokomaru Bay, Taumarunui, Ruapehu, Taupo, Tokoroa, Murupara, Rotorua.
Possibility Mag 6 New Zealand. Confidence=low.
Update. 25 October 12.00am
Local quakes were quiet on 25 October.
Geonet recorded a South of Kermadecs 5.6 5.14pm but none of the big seismological observatories, EMSC, USGS or GEOFON have recorded this very big quake.
This Service has discarded the quake as probably a false reading.
Solar conditions arrived on cue but were mild, local quakes were very quiet as a result.
Solar conditions have picked up tonight but seem likely to fade again.
The forecast period is extended to 26 October and may end.
Local quakes, if any, seem likely to be isolated.
Update. 27 October 12.00am
Lake Grassmere 4.1 10.05pm
Solar conditions faded then picked up again today against forecast expectations.
Local quakes remained isolated despite the strong Pacific quake pickup.
The Lake Grassmere 4.1 is the epicenter of the Friday afternoon 6 August 2013 Mag 6.6 which was strongly felt in Wellington.
Solar conditions are likely to fade again on 27 October but isolated quakes are possible.
Lower Arawhata River, Waiatoto River are added to Mag 4 risk locations.
Lake Grassmere 4.1 10.05pm
South of Cape Campbell 3.9 11.27pm
Hanmer 3.9 3.38am
Northeast of East Cape 4.4 8.04am
Southwest of Taumarunui 6.2 3.13pm
This forecast had excellent location success but the forecast was dropped too early when solar conditions faded late on 27 October.
Heavy deep quakes north of New Zealand have been ongoing since the very deep 19 August Fiji 8.2 and were inevitably going to migrate into New Zealand.
Little Ice Age solar conditions are flattening and spreading out quakes over time, making accurate forecast timing a big challenge in 2018.
Quakes would release quickly prior to 2017, often under the shock influence of coronal mass ejections (solar storms) but weaker solar wind streams prevail since 2017 as sunspots die away with the onset of the Little Ice Age. Slow buildup and slow release is the new pattern and quake timing parameters are necessarily broader.
The forecast wasn't updated after 27 October but locations are still valid, they don't change much.
29-30 October quakes are plotted on the map, despite no updates....you decide.
Solar conditions are weak but occasionally fluctuating to moderate for short periods.
Fluctuating mild solar conditions may occur on 31 October, possibly driving isolated quakes in the same risk locations.
Strong new solar conditions are due late 3 November.
More info at Facebook/Roary Arbon.
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