Pacific Summary Updated. 1 November 2018 - 3 November 2018
Location confidence=low. Volcanic activity may increase. Krakatoa, Merapi, Kuchinoerabujima, Sakurajima, Ebeko, Sarychev, Veniaminof. More volcanoes may be added as the period progresses. Mauna Loa is quiet. Update. 25 October 11.30pm Eruption Krakatoa, Sakurajima, Ebeko. Solar quake and eruption driving conditions arrived on cue but were very mild and haven't driven much action. Conditions have picked up tonight but may fade again. Typhoon Yutu has powered up to Cat 5 as it crossed the Northern Marianas Islands, possibly helped along by moderate full moon tidal forces. Volcanic action may continue on 26 October as solar conditions slowly fade but big quakes seem less likely. The forecast period is extended to 26 October. Update. 27 October 12.00am 26 October. Eastern Honshu 5.7 7.36am Offshore Western Greece 6.8 11.54am Northeast of Hokkaido 5.7 4.04pm Northern Marianas Islands 6.0 10.05pm Eruption Piton de la Fournaise, Seismopochnoi, Barren Island. Solar conditions picked up today against forecast expectations and quakes followed. The Offshore Greece 6.8 has caused only local damage and no casualties although the big quake was felt around the Mediterranean. Pacific quakes picked up at the same time. Low location confidence is justified, no quakes in risk locations. The Little Ice Age solar trend for low quake activity at the onset of solar quake driving conditions continues. Quakes take longer to respond as solar conditions gradually slow down over several years. Volcanoes are active. New player, Seismopochnoi is in light eruption and may increase. The eruption of Piton de la Fournaise is ending but a new eruption seems possible soon. The eruption at Barren Island, north of Sumatra, is ongoing. Mauna Loa is quiet. More volcano data may come later, little news from Ambrym, Manam, Kerinci. Indonesian volcanoes are hot. Solar conditions are just above the quake driving threshold and likely to fade on 27 October. The forecast period is extended to 27 October. Summary. 25 October. Eruption Krakatoa, Sakurajima, Ebeko. 26 October. Eastern Honshu 5.7 7.36am Offshore Western Greece 6.8 11.54am Northeast of Hokkaido 5.7 4.04pm Northern Marianas Islands 6.0 10.05pm Eruption Piton de la Fournaise, Seismopochnoi, Barren Island. 29 October. El Salvador 6.1 11.23am South of Cape Horn 6.3 7.54pm Eruption Kuchinoerabujima. 30 October. New Zealand/25 km SW of Taumarunui 6.2 3.13pm Eruption Manaro Solar quake and eruption driving conditions arrived on cue but were mild. Quakes were subdued and only volcanoes which were already in daily eruption were active. Quakes responded on 26 October. The Offshore Western Greece 6.8 was big for the Mediterranean but never made much news due to limited damage on shore. Big quake and volcano action around Japan during the period. New eruptions at remote Western Aleutians volcano Semisopochnoi seems likely to increase. Eruptions at Piton de la Fournaise and Barren Island eased back during the period and may be ending. Quakes went quiet on 28 October as solar conditions weakened but October is aurora season and just when the period seemed to be over a late burst of activity arrived on 29 October. The forecast was dropped too early. The Taumarunui 6.2 was the first local Mag 6 since the 14 November 2016 Culverden 7.8 Supermoon quake and was always coming following earlier heavy Kermadecs and Fiji action. Recent NZ forecasts were reaching Mag 6 risk so the Taumarunui 6.2 gives some context to those forecasts. Low location confidence was justified during the period, locations were hopeless. Vanuatu volcano Manaro let off a big brief stratospheric blast on 30 October. Locals were unaffected, the island of Aoba was permanently abandoned several months ago due to the ongoing ash eruptions at Manaro. Nearby Ambrym is degassing very strongly, the lava lakes must be boiling madly. Mauna Loa was quiet during the period, justifying the withdrawal of the volcano as an eruption risk. An eruption at Mauna Loa is still possible in future periods. The unforecasted 30 October quake burst hasn't lasted into 31 October, the Pacific is quiet. Solar conditions are weak but briefly fluctuating to moderate so very isolated quake and eruption activity is possible ahead of new solar conditions arriving late 4 November. Summary Update. 3 November 11.30pm 2 November. Atacama 6.2 11.19am Very isolated quake activity has marked the days since 30 October. Good location success but the forecast period was closed and quakes were at background levels. Volcanoes were quiet. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
