Pacific Summary. 4 November 2018 - 18 November 2018

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Magnitude 6 risk locations are South of Kermadec Islands, Kermadec Islands, Tonga, South of Fiji, Fiji, New Britain, South Banda Sea, Timor, Flores Sea, Java Sea, Molucca Sea, Northern Marianas Islands, Izu Islands, Eastern Honshu, Southern Kuril Islands, Offshore Oregon, Gulf of California, Atacama, Titicaca, Vallenar, Bolivia, Valparaiso, Bristol Island, Kashmir, Hindu Kush.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Manaro, Manam, Krakatoa, Kuchinoerabujima, Sakurajima, Ebeko, Semisopochnoi, Veniaminof, Fuego.
Mauna Loa quiet.
The period is likely to be extended.

Update. 4 November 11.00pm
4 November.
Mindanao/Philippines 6.0 8.55pm
Eruption Ebeko.
Solar quake driving conditions are here and look like strengthening.
The deep Philippines 6.0 caused no damage at the surface.
More Mag 6 quakes are possible on 5 November in Mindanao, including Offshore Eastern Mindanao.
Southern Sumatra is added to Mag 6 risk locations.
The period is extended to 5 November.
Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Confidence=low.

Update. 5 November 11.30pm
5 November.
Northeast of Hokkaido 5.9 8.26am
Eruption Etna.
Strong solar conditions have set in today.
Good location success again today at Hokkaido although quakes generally are sluggish to respond, typical for Little Ice Age weakening solar conditions.
Volcanoes have begun heating up with a resumption of the Etna eruption.
Fuego is hot, pluming and tremor increasing.
Mauna Loa is quiet.
More eruptions are likely as the period progresses and data arrives.
Pacific quakes may be isolated on 6 November, building to a quake peak on 7 November.

Update. 7 November 12.00pm
6 November.
Molucca Sea 5.3 3.09pm
Eruption Krakatoa.
7 November.
Tonga 5.6 5.11am
Pacific quakes were isolated, dropping to background levels on 6 November.
Eruptions were likewise mostly subdued. More volcano data may arrive later.
Solar conditions are weakening today as the active end of the forecast period approaches.
Biggest quakes of the period are all in risk locations...so far.
Pacific quakes and eruptions may increase on 7 November.
Possibility Mag 7. Confidence=low.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 8 November 3.15pm
6 November.
Eruption Fuego.
Pacific quakes were ominously quiet on 7 November.
Quakes may be picking up this afternoon in the Southwest Pacific.
The forecast period is extended to 8 November.
Possibility Mag 7 Southwest Pacific. Confidence=low.
The eruption of Fuego was the only good point to extract from the forecast on a lean quake day.

Update. 9 November 1.00pm
8 November.
Eruption Kuchinoerabujima, Suwanosejima, Sakurajima, Veniaminof, Planchon-Peteroa, Villarrica, Nevados de Chillan.
Pacific quakes were quiet on 8 November, despite steady solar quake driving conditions.
The period has become heavily volcanic as eruptions take over at the expense of quakes.
No eruption is major but the number of eruptions is substantial.
Three Japanese volcanos and three Chilean volcanos simultaneously is very unusual.
New solar conditions are due early 10 November, boosting the magnetic connection and re-energising volcanos.
Risk locations haven't changed during the period so the forecast map will roll over to 10 November.
Volcanic action seems likely to continue and may increase.
Mauna Loa is quiet.
Pacific Mag 7 is still possible 9-10 November. Confidence=low.
Tonga is higher risk.

Update. 11 November 12.00pm
6 November.
Molucca Sea 5.3 3.09pm
Eruption Krakatoa.
7 November.
Tonga 5.6 5.11am
Quakes have picked up with the arrival of new solar conditions on 10 November.
Action switched heavily to the Atlantic Ocean for a day.
The Jan Mayen 6.8 was remote so no damage.
The polar quake is the biggest in the region for a long time and very significant.
South Atlantic Ocean quakes followed soon after the Jan Mayen 6.8.
Iceland volcano Oraefajokull is quaking.
The undersea Mid Atlantic Ridge is obviously very active and a precursor for following activity.
An eruption at Oraefajokull seems likely in the next few months as solar activity weakens and volcanic activity increases in response.
Regardless, the forecast radar never saw any action coming in the Atlantic Ocean.
Solar conditions are weakening again today but fluctuating for brief periods into active mode.
The Tonga 6.2 came with the new solar conditions and finally gives some substance to the Pacific forecast in what has become a weak Pacific quake period but a strong volcanic period.
Isolated Mag 6 Pacific quakes are possible on 11 November.

Update. 12 November 8.30am
Mid Atlantic Ocean 6.2 3.03am
Extending the forecast period is justified.
Solar conditions are fluctuating today, increasing the quake response.
The whole length of the Atlantic Ocean has now shifted over several days.
This is the first time since 2012 at least that this level of movement has been observed in the Atlantic Ocean and may be one reason why Pacific quakes have been subdued during the period.
Eastern Caribbean, Puerto Rico, Haiti, Cuba are added to Mag 6 risk locations.

Update. 13 November .30am
Pacific and Atlantic quakes were under Mag 6 on 12 November following the 3.03am Mid Atlantic 6.2.
Most of the volcanos forecasted for eruptions have done exactly that and confirmation today that the same volcanos are still in steady eruption.
The increase in global volcanic activity over the past year is a consequence of the rapidly advancing solar driven Little Ice Age.
In addition to the failing "climate change" global warming nonsense, no "climate change" model has vulcanism as part of the picture and another reason these models belong in the trash can.
Solar conditions are still present today, persistently just above quake driving threshold.
Isolated Pacific quakes are therefore still possible as the period runs slowly out of energy.
Tonga has become active, following an incredible absence of quakes since the 19 August Fiji 8.2.
Tonga is normally a very active region and the long absence of quakes is a new observation.
The forecast period is extended to 13 November.
Makira is added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Tonga, Makira, New Britain are higher risk.
Most other regions are now likely to be inactive.

Summary.
4 November.
Mindanao/Philippines 6.0 8.55pm
Eruption Ebeko.
5 November.
Northeast of Hokkaido 5.9 8.26am
Eruption Etna.
6 November.
Molucca Sea 5.3 3.09pm
Eruption Krakatoa, Fuego.
7 November.
Tonga 5.6 5.11am
6 November.
Molucca Sea 5.3 3.09pm
Eruption Krakatoa.
7 November.
Tonga 5.6 5.11am
8 November.
Eruption Kuchinoerabujima, Suwanosejima, Sakurajima, Veniaminof, Planchon-Peteroa, Villarrica, Nevados de Chillan.
9 November.
Albany/West Australia 5.2 10.07am
Jan Mayen Island/Atlantic Ocean 6.8 2.49pm
South Atlantic Ocean 5.8, 5.5, 5.0 8.54pm
Eruption Shiveluch
10 November.
Southern Tonga 6.2 9.33pm
12 November.
Mid Atlantic Ocean 6.2 3.03am
15 November.
Kamachatka Peninsula 6.0 10.21am
16 November.
South Sandwich Islands 6.3 9.02am
South East Pacific Rise 6.3 12.09pm
East of Makira 6.2 4.26pm
Offshore Oregon 4.5 6.21pm
Strong auroras marked the beginning of the period and strong quakes and eruptions followed.
The biggest quake of the period, the Jan Mayen 6.8, on the Atlantic Ridge, was a relatively rare polar quake and the biggest in the region for a long time.
The Atlantic Ridge then went off in several more locations...a new observation.
The addition of Makira to risk locations on 13 November worked perfectly.
The forecast was dropped on 14 November as auroras faded but another burst of quakes arrived on 16 November.
Overall location success was good during the period.
Mauna Loa was removed as an eruption risk for this forecast. A decent quake swarm occurred under the volcano which wasn't a total surprise but wasn't strong enough to drive an eruption.
USGS vulcanologists at Mauna Loa haven't updated their observations since 1 November so clearly aren't seeing any activity.
A new quake period is due on 19 November.

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