Aotearoa Summary. 5 November 2018 - 18 November 2018
Magnitude 5 risk locations are Northern Hawkes Bay, Hastings, Waipukurau, Porangahau, Dannevirke, Pahiatua, Masterton, Turakirae Head, South of Wellington, Makara, West of Mana, Tutoko. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Rotorua, Tokoroa, Atiamuri, Taupo, Murupara, Turangi, Taumarunui, Ruapehu, Southwest of Taumarunui, Taihape, Southern Taranaki, South of Wanganui, Motueka, St Arnaud, Westport, Otira, Hanmer, Waiau, Conway River, Kaikoura, Seaward Kaikouras, Ward, Cape Campbell, Seddon, Northeast of Cape Campbell, Lower Waiatoto River, Lower Arawhata River, Olivine Ranges, Te Anau, Doubtful Sound. This forecast is an extension of the 4 November forecast. Magnitude risk is increased from 4 November. Increased locations near Gisborne, Southern Wairarapa and Cook Strait. Strong Pacific quakes are possible on 5 November. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Be careful. More info at Facebook/Roary Arbon. Update. 6 November 12.00am 5 November. Northeast of Waiau 4.0 12.08pm Strong solar conditions have set in today. Local and Pacific quakes are typically sluggish to respond although some action has occurred. Good location success with the biggest daily quake at Waiau and smaller quakes. Isolated local quakes are possible on 6 November, building up to a peak on 7 November as quakes respond to the strong aurora. Risk locations and magnitudes are unchanged. Be careful. Update. 7 November 12.30pm 6 November. 200 km NW Auckland Island 4.5 8.54am South of Kermadecs 4.9 9.02am 7 November. South of Wairoa 3.7 7.50am Local quakes were isolated on 6 November. Quakes are typically isolated during the middle of forecast periods. Moderate quakes north and south of New Zealand just a few minutes apart aren't coincidental. Solar conditions are weakening today, following big auroras on 4/5 November marking the beginning of the period. Quakes may increase again as the end of the period approaches from today. Biggest mainland quake near Wairoa on 7 November is in the North Island East Coast high risk zone. Pacific quakes at Auckland Island, South of Kermadecs and Tonga indicate New Zealand may still be under pressure. Quake patterns during the period indicate an East Coast slow slip event may be underway. Seismologists may make an announcement soon if there is a slow slip at East Coast. Slow slip events release a lot of small quakes over a few weeks which is better than one big quake over a few seconds to release the same energy. An East Coast slow slip followed the Kaikoura Supermoon 7.8 quake and a slow slip event may be following the 30 October Taumarunui 6.2. Regardless, the present forecast is maintained. Local risk locations and magnitudes are unchanged on 7 November. The period is extended to 8 November. Update. 8 November 3.00pm 8 November. North of East Cape 4.0 1.58pm Local and Pacific quakes and eruptions are ominously quiet on 7 November. Quake action has finally picked up this afternoon between New Zealand and Fiji. New Zealand remains Mag 6 risk on 8 November. Risk locations and magnitudes are unchanged. Update. 9 November 1.30pm Local and Pacific quakes are quiet on 8-9 November. The period has gone volcanic in the Pacific, quakes are subdued as a result. Solar conditions are steady so the potential for an isolated Mag 4 quake remains. New solar conditions are due early 10 November, re-energising quakes. The forecast period is extended to 10 November. Risk locations are unchanged. Mag 6 confidence=low. Pacific volcanos are very active during the period, New Zealand volcanos are quiet. Update. 13 November 9.30am No updates yeasterday on quakestorm.co.nz due to site maintenance but updates were posted on Facebook/Roary and the Facebook link to quakestorm.co.nz. Update. 11 November 10.30pm 9 November. North of Napier 3.7 5.29pm 11 November. Northeast of East Cape 4.5 2.31pm Persistent, fluctuating solar conditions have challenged forecast timing last few days. Quakes are isolated but pop up with the fluctuating solar conditions. Persistent rumbling north of New Zealand continues today. This rumbling is the ongoing effects of the 19 August Fiji 8.2 and is likely to continue for quite a long time yet. The forecast period is extended to 12 November. Quakes, if any, are likely to be very isolated. West of Levin is added to Mag 4 risk locations. Update. 12 November 8.30am 12 November. Northeast of East Cape 4.7 4.25am Persistent rumbling north of New Zealand continues overnight. This gives some justification for extending the forecast period and maybe for keeping magnitude risk high. Solar conditions are jumping around today, meeting forecast expectations and increasing the quake response. Quakestorm.co.nz is down this morning, hopefully our technical expert will have it running again soon. Update. 13 November 9.30am Local quakes went quiet following the 4.25am Northeast of East Cape 4.7. Solar conditions are persistently just above the quake driving threshold as the period slowly runs out of energy. Intense auroral activity through the period continues today. Activity north of New Zealand is too high to abandon the forecast just yet. Local quakes, if any, are likely to be isolated on 13 November. Mag 6 is now low confidence. Summary. 5 November. Northeast of Waiau 4.0 12.08pm 6 November. 200 km NW Auckland Island 4.5 8.54am South of Kermadecs 4.9 9.02am 7 November. South of Wairoa 3.7 7.50am 8 November. North of East Cape 4.0 1.58pm 9 November. North of Napier 3.7 5.29pm 11 November. Northeast of East Cape 4.5 2.31pm 12 November. Northeast of East Cape 4.7 4.25am 14 November. South of Kermadecs 4.4 4.48am Rotorua 3.9 11.11pm 15 November. North of East Cape 3.9 2.39am 16 November. Pyke River 3.8 9.36pm Northeast of East Cape 3.9 10.06pm 17 November. Waipukurau 3.8 8.03pm 18 November. Northeast of East Cape 4.1 7.20pm This forecast was an extension of the 4 November forecast with raised Magnitude risk. Tampering with the 4 November forecast wasn't justified because higher Magnitude never came. Persistent Mag 4 rumbling north of New Zealand shows clearly on the map, showing at least why the forecast was changed. The 19 August Fiji 8.2 will continue to increase Southwest Pacific quakes for a while yet. The forecast was dropped on 14 November but quakes rumbled on for a few days at lessening Magnitude. The biggest daily quakes are plotted on to the map. Good location success but Magnitudes are all over the place and becoming low confidence. Timing is as good as the weakening solar conditions of the current solar cycle will allow. Forecast periods are becoming longer with no clear peak, unlike earlier days 2012-2017 when coronal mass ejections dominated and gave sharp signature. A new quake period is due 19 November. 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