Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Pacific Summary. 1 December 2018 - 16 December 2018

Magnitude 6 risk locations are Anchorage, Haida Gwaii, Offshore Oregon, Gulf of California, Eastern Caribbean Sea, Southern Peru, Titicaca, Atacama, Valparaiso, Valdivia, New Zealand, Kermadec Islands, Tonga, Fiji, South of Fiji, Vanuatu, New Britain, Sumatra, Molucca Sea, Northern Italy.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Merapi, Krakatoa, Karangetang, Mayon, Sakurajima, Suwanosejima, Kuchinoerabujima, Veniaminof, Fuego, Santiaguito, Turrialba, Nevados de Chillan, Etna.
Possibility Mag 7 Pacific.
This forecast is posted after the 1 December 6.29am Anchorage 7.0.
More action is possible in Anchorage, either Mag 6 aftershocks or less likely this mornings quake was a foreshock and more Mag 7 activity may follow.
Western Pacific locations Japan, Philippines may be added later in the period.
Solar conditions are due late 1 December and may last several days.

Update. 2 December 8.30am
2 December.
South Banda Sea 6.4 2.27am
Eruption Sakurajima.
Solar quake and eruption driving conditions started building up late on 1 December.
Quakes are very busy in the Tonga, South of Fiji region and may migrate southwards towards New Zealand during the period.
An undersea eruption may also be underway in the region but often these eruptions go unconfirmed due to the remoteness.
Kermadecs, Tonga and New Zealand are potential hotspots as the forecast period progresses.
The forecast period will be extended to 3 December.
No more big quakes in Anchorage so far, hopefully yesterdays 7.0 quake was a mainshock with a following aftershock decay sequence and not a foreshock which could mean a bigger quake is coming.
Note. The map isn't updating on quakestorm.co.nz but an updated map is at Facebook/Roary Arbon.

Update. 4 December 12.00am
2 December.
Eruption Ebeko, Popocatepetl, Krakatoa.
Moderate eruptions on 2 December mark an ominously quiet period so far.
An undersea eruption in the Kermadecs or possibly Tonga still seems to be underway but no visual sightings to confirm the data.
No big quakes to follow the Anchorage 7.0 so far in the period.
The remainder of the period will tell whether the quake is a mainshock or a foreshock.
Quakes are very busy in Tonga, Fiji and Southern Vanuatu.
Possibility Mag 7 Tonga, Fiji, Southern Vanuatu. Confidence=low.
New Zealand North Island remains Mag 6 risk.
The period is likely to be extended to 5 December.
Note. The updated map still isn't loading onto quakstorm.co.nz.
An updated map is loaded onto Facebook/Roary Arbon or the direct Facebook link to this site.

Update. 5 December 9.00am
4 December.
Eruption Turrialba, Fuego.
5 December.
North Pole 4.8 5.14am
Pacific quakes were ominously quiet on 3-4 December.
Moderate eruptions continue at many volcanoes.
Data still shows an undersea eruption in Kermadec Islands or Tonga but no visual confirmation.
The North Pole 4.8 is rare, polar quakes are rare.
Solar conditions are moderate and fluctuating with plenty of energy to drive quakes and eruptions.
A Pacific buildup may be underway.
The forecast period is extended to 5 December and likely for a day or two at least beyond that.
Recent forecast periods have been closed too early as solar wind streams becoming gentler and longer lasting in 2018.
Note. The updated map is still not loading onto quakestorm.co.nz
An updated map is loaded onto Facebook/Roary Arbon or the direct Facebook link to this site.

Update. 5 December 10.30pm
5 December.
Southern Vanuatu/South of Tanna 6.0, 7.5 5.18pm, 5.9, 5.9, 6.6
A massive quake sequence in Southern Vanuatu Mag 7 risk location has met forecast parameters.
Solar quake driving conditions look set to continue on 6 December.
North Banda Sea, Flores Sea, Sumbawa are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Possibility Mag 7 Pacific on 6 December. Confidence=low.
Tongatapu, Vanuatu, New Britain, North Banda Sea, Northern Sumatra are higher risk locations.
Note. The updated map is still not loading onto quakestorm.co.nz
An updated map is loaded onto Facebook/Roary Arbon or the direct Facebook link to this site..

Update. 6 December 11.00pm
6 December.
Valparaiso 5.5 6.12am
South of Tanna 5.5 9.01am
Lombok 5.5 2.02pm
Eruption Veniaminof, Etna.
Pacific quakes were busy but under Mag 6 on 6 December.
Good location success with biggest quakes, all in risk locations, a Lombok 5.5 aftershock is near the Sumbawa risk location.
Continuation of eruptions at Etna and Veniaminof have given more eruption location successes.
Solar quake driving conditions may increase again on 7 December.
Makira, Guadalcanal are added to Mag 7 risk locations. Mag 7 confidence=low.

Update. 8 December 1.00pm
7 December.
South of Tanna 5.9 12.27pm
Pacific quakes were quiet on 7 December apart from a South of Tanna aftershock.
Volcanos are active.
Low level eruptions continue at most forecasted volcanos.
Mild new solar conditions arrived late 7 December, continuing on 8 December.
Isolated Mag 6 Pacific quakes are possible 8-9 December.
Mag 7 seems unlikely.
Risk locations are unchanged from earlier in the period.

Update. 9 December 1.00pm
8 December.
Eruption Manam, Nevados de Chillan.
Pacific quakes are isolated and well below Mag 6 on 9 December.
Eruptions are underway as the end of the forecast period nears.
Big eruption at Manam, near to Mag 7 risk location New Britain.
Mild eruption at Nevados de Chillan.
Isolated quakes are likely to continue next days as weak solar conditions occasionally fluctuate to strong for brief periods.

Update. 12 December 9.30am
11 December.
South Sandwich Islands 7.1 3.26pm
Quakes come in clusters and the period has now brought two Mag 7 quakes.
Fluctuating solar conditions last two days have brought steady Mag 5 quakes, one bigger quake and continuing mild eruptions.
No location success with the South Sandwich Islands 7.1....even easier to forecast equatorial regions are highly tenuous, polar regions like South Sandwich Islands are harder.
A very long lasting solar wind stream has stretched out the forecast period and made the map messy but risk locations haven't changed much and retaining one map instead of switching to a new map every day highlights how quakes cluster during forecast periods.
Solar conditions may continue until 13 December.
Isolated Pacific quakes seem likely to continue.
Kermadec Islands, South of Kermadec Islands, East Cape remain risk locations.

Summary.
2 December.
South Banda Sea 6.4 2.27am
Eruption Sakurajima, Ebeko, Popocatepetl, Krakatoa.
4 December.
Eruption Turrialba, Fuego.
5 December.
North Pole 4.8 5.14am
Southern Vanuatu/South of Tanna 6.0, 7.5 5.18pm, 5.9, 5.9, 6.6
6 December.
Valparaiso 5.5 6.12am
South of Tanna 5.5 9.01am
Lombok 5.5 2.02pm
Eruption Veniaminof, Etna.
7 December.
South of Tanna 5.9 12.27pm
8 December.
Eruption Manam, Nevados de Chillan.
11 December.
South Sandwich Islands 7.1 3.26pm
13 December.
Southeast Pacific Ridge 6.3 2.13am
15 December.
Eruption Ambrym, Soputan, Mayon.
16 December.
Ambrym 5.6 9.21am
Papua New Guinea 6.1 10.42pm

This forecast had timing problems as the period stretched out. The Mag 7 outlook was good as the Pacific entered a December Mag 7 quake spell.
The Southern Vanuatu Mag 7 hotspot gave added location success.
Volcanos went off during the period with increasing force and frequency as a long lasting Little Ice Age solar wind stream powered up auroras for most of the month.
The 15 December Ambrym eruption came with a major local quake swarm.
Big ground cracking is reported by locals across the island.
Mid Ocean Ridge quakes gained in size and frequency during the period, heralding the approach of more and bigger quakes and eruptions in 2019.
The period extended into 17 December and beyond, the map was very cluttered after such a long period.
Daily updates were erratic at the end of the period due to lack of time...the forecasters were on a field trip to Coromandel and Waikato.