Pacific Summary. 1 March 2019 - 9 March 2019
Possibility Mag 7 Pacific. Mexico=higher risk. Confidence=low. Volcanic activity may increase. Manam, Agung, Semeru, Merapi, Krakatoa, Karymsky, Sakurajima, El Chichon, Fuego, Planchon -Peteroa, Etna. Piton de la Fournaise is in constant eruption since 19 February. The eruption may increase on 28 February. The forecast period may be extended. Update. 2 March 2.00am 1 March. North of Macquarie Island 5.9 2.02pm Northwest of Lake Titicaca 7.0 9.50pm Eruption Sakurajima, Karymsky, Manam, Piton de la Fournaise. The deep Titicaca 7.0 quake has brought no damage at the surface, justifys the Mag 7 outlook and confirms the outlook for a Mag 7 quake cluster following the 22 February Ecuador 7.5. Excellent location success at rarely forecasted Macquarie Island but ominous for more action further north towards New Zealand later in the period. Solar conditions have arrived on cue with some energy and likely to continue for a few more days yet. More Pacific Mag 7 seems possible during the period. Kermadec Islands are added to Mag 6 risk locations. Slight eruptions at volcanos may increase near the end of the period. Eruptions tend to follow quakes. The forecast period is likely to be extended for at least two days. Update. 3 March 10.00am 2 March. Offshore Hokkaido 6.0 4.22pm Eruption Piton de la Fournaise, Planchon-Peteroa Solar quake and eruption driving conditions continued on 2 March. Conditions are now in a weakening phase as the period slowly winds down. Quakes are likely to be infrequent next two days. Mag 7 seems possible. Confidence=low. Eruptions at forecasted locations continue but are only moderate. The eruption at Piton de la Fournaise is decreasing. Lava is now flowing in tubes as the volumes decrease. Eruptions follow quakes so another Pacific eruption is still possible as the end of the period approaches. The forecast period is extended to 4 March. Update. 7 March 12.00pm 4 March. Bismarck Sea 5.9 11.06pm 6 March. East of Philippines 5.7 1.13pm Eruption Nevados de Chillan 7 March. South of Kermadecs 6.4 4.46am South of Kermadecs 5.7 9.19am Solar quake driving conditions steadily weakened 4-6 March but always just on the quake driving threshold, typical of Little Ice Age solar windstreams. Conditions have slightly strengthened again today, frustrating the forecasters. The biggest quakes during the period have come in risk locations and are plotted on the forecast map. The Philippines 5.7 was just north of the risk location. The 2 March addition of Kermadec Islands to risk locations is justified today with a strong quake sequence underway. More Kermadecs quakes are possible during the period. Solar conditions look likely to last another day at least. The forecast period is extended to 8 March. Risk locations are unchanged, quakes are likely to be infrequent. Northern Alaska is added to Mag 6 risk locations. Summary. 1 March. North of Macquarie Island 5.9 2.02pm Northwest of Lake Titicaca 7.0 9.50pm Eruption Sakurajima, Karymsky, Manam, Piton de la Fournaise. 2 March. Offshore Hokkaido 6.0 4.22pm Eruption Planchon-Peteroa. 4 March. Bismarck Sea 5.9 11.06pm 6 March. East of Philippines 5.7 1.13pm Eruption Nevados de Chillan 7 March. South of Kermadecs 6.4 4.46am South of Kermadecs 5.7 9.19am 9 March. Philippines 6.0 4.06am The forecast outlook for Mag 7 was justified. Additionally, the eruption of Piton de la Fournaise steadily increased during the period, giving substance to the long term outlook that shield volcano eruptions are an early indicator for following subduction zone eruptions. The eruption is now the biggest in years and an ominous sign for what 2019 may bring in terms of large stratospheric eruptions and a sudden global cooling as the Little Ice Age rapidly advances. Northern Hemisphere winter continental temperatures this season have reached historical lows in direct contrast to "climate change" outlooks...but you have to search for yourself as the political movement driving the nonsense restricts evidence on mainstream news. Solar conditions are still at or just under the quake driving threshold as this summary is posted. Isolated quakes are still possible ahead of a new forecast period on 13 March. Higher risk locations are Bismarck Sea, Northern Papua New Guinea, Guam, Peru. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
