Aotearoa Summary. 2 March 2019 - 9 March 2019
Magnitude 5 risk locations are Southern Fiordland, Pyke River, Cascade River, Haast, South of Taranaki, North of D'Urville Island, South of Wanganui, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Porangahau, Hastings, Northern Hawkes Bay, Tokoroa, Rotorua, Opotiki, East Cape, South of Kermadecs. Heavy Pacific quake action on 1 March has prompted an upgrade in risk magnitude for 2-4 March as the wider quake period progresses. Risk locations are largely the same as 1 March. Volcanos quiet. Be careful. Update. 7 March 1.00pm 2 March. West of Waipukurau 3.7 4.55pm 3 March. South of Kermadecs 5.0 12.31pm West of Tokomaru Bay 3.7 4.07pm 6 March. Southwest of Snares Islands 4.2 3.07pm 7 March. Southeast of L'Esperance Rock 6.4 4.46am Southeast of L'Esperance Rock 5.0, 5.7, 5.1 sequence. Typical tricky Little Ice Age solar windstream has slightly beaten the forecasters. Solar conditions fell to be right on or slightly under quake driving strength 4-6 March. Quake response was weak. The biggest mainland quakes were under Mag 4 but in risk locations at least. South of Kermadecs was very active however with many moderate quakes. Due to the large number of South of Kermadecs quakes during the period, only Mag 5 quakes are plotted on the map to avoid cluttering. The period was looking like fading away but unexpected moderate solar conditions have arrived today. The forecast has been hastily updated in response with the same risk locations and magnitudes. The forecast period is extended to 8 March. South of Kermadecs remains Mag 6 risk. (see Pacific forecast) Update. 8 March 9.30am 7 March. Southeast of L'Esperance Rock 5.2, 5.1 North of East Cape 4.0 4.11pm 8 March. Southeast of L'Esperance Rock 5.1, 5.5, 5.7, 5.0 The heavy South of Kermadecs quake sequence has continued overnight. Local seismologists claim yesterday that the sequence wouldn't continue is wrong. They have a long way to go before they can ever accurately forecast quakes. Solar quake driving conditions are moderate and fluctuating today. More heavy L'Esperance Rock action seems likely today. Hopefully this heavy action doesn't migrate into New Zealand. The period is likely to be extended. Be careful. Summary. 2 March. West of Waipukurau 3.7 4.55pm 3 March. South of Kermadecs 5.0 12.31pm West of Tokomaru Bay 3.7 4.07pm 6 March. Southwest of Snares Islands 4.2 3.07pm 7 March. Southeast of L'Esperance Rock 6.4 4.46am Southeast of L'Esperance Rock 5.0, 5.7, 5.1, 5.2, 5.1 sequence. North of East Cape 4.0 4.11pm 8 March. Southeast of L'Esperance Rock 5.1, 5.5, 5.7, 5.0, 5.1, 5.1, 5.0 9 March. South of Kermadecs 5.2, 5.0, 5.0 This forecast was an extension of the successful 28 February-1 March forecast where the East Cape 5.0 prompted an increase in magnitude risk. No more action came to New Zealand during the period but there was major action south of L'Esperance Rock, the southernmost point of the Kermadec Islands. A huge sequence lasting several days gave substance to the forecast. Geonet seismologists claimed the sequence was nothing out of the ordinary but the forecasters here haven't observed such a sustained sequence since this service began with the eruption of Tongariro on 6 August, 2012. Mag 4 quakes were dropped from the map, there were too many to record, in fact there were almost too many Mag 5 quakes to plot on the map. This constant Mag 4 rumbling north of New Zealand began soon after the 19 August, 2018 Fiji 8.2, heralding the arrival of Little Ice Age quakes and eruptions as solar activity reaches an historical low. The forecast period has ended but the forecasters warn solar conditions are still just at or under the quake driving threshold and a possibility for isolated local quakes still exists ahead of a new forecast period 13 March. Fiordland could be higher risk for Mag 5 during the new period. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
