Aotearoa Summary. 20 March 2019 - 23 March 2019

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Magnitude 4 risk locations are East Cape, South of Rotorua, Tokoroa, Taupo, Taumarunui, Wairoa, Dannevirke, Eketahuna, Masterton, South Wairarapa, South of Taranaki, Cape Campbell, Kaikoura, Lake Hollyford, Pyke River, Cascade River.
Lunar influence may modulate quakes to low tide, especially from 21 March.
Risk locations include a new experimental factor and are low confidence.

Update. 21 March 9.30am
20 March.
South of Kermadecs 5.0 1.32am
North of White Island 4.3 6.39am
Solar quake driving conditions have arrived on cue but are much weaker than expected.
Bay of Plenty northwards quakes have met forecast expectations.
Note. Mag 4 quakes in the South of Kermadecs region are no longer being recorded....there are too many.
These ongoing rumblings are a direct consequence of the 19 August, 2018 Fiji 8.2 and the Little Ice Age solar conditions that cause such big deep quakes.
A Mag 2/3 quake swarm is ongoing near White Island.
Bay of Plenty is a hotspot during the period and more action may follow despite weak solar quake driving conditions.

Summary.
20 March.
South of Kermadecs 5.0 1.32am
North of White Island 4.3 6.39am
Mag 3 quake swarm White Island.
21 March.
South of Kermadecs 5.2 12.11pm
22 March.
South of Kermadecs 5.1 8.24am
23 March.
South of Kermadecs 5.2 8.47pm
Solar quake driving conditions arrived on cue but were mild.
Good location success at White Island which became a hotspot during the period.
Mag 5 was a daily occurrence southeast of L'Esperance Rock, the southernmost point of the Kermadec Islands.
Note. Mag 4 in the South of Kermadecs region is no longer recorded by this Service, there are just too many.
Additionally, the Geonet seismograph network isn't configured to record quakes in the Kermadecs so data is unreliable.
United States Geological Survey has a more extensive seismograph network and is better at recording Kermadecs quakes.
A new forecast period begins 27 March and may last for several days.


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