Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Forecast for 28 June 2014 - 29 June 2014

Quake activity may increase. Magnitude 5+ risk areas are East Cape, Northern Wairarapa. Magnitude 4+ risk areas are Bay of Plenty, Taranaki Bight, Christchurch, Fiordland. The forecast period looks like building into a longer more active period on 30 June-1 July. Summary.26 June. Kermadecs 5.4, 5.0, 4.7; East Cape 4.1, Eketahuna 4.4 (USGS), Taranaki Bight 4.6 (USGS) 28 June. Kermadecs 4.9, 4.9 29 June. South Sandwich Islands 7.2, Mariana Islands 6.2 30 June. West of Samoa 6.8, Kermadecs 5.3, East Cape 4.1, 3.9 1 July. South of Japan 6.2, Kermadecs 5.3, 5.2, 5.1 3 July. Kermadecs 4.8 4 July. Kermadecs 6.3 5 July. Kermadecs 4.8, 5.2, North of East Cape 4.1, West of Kawhia 4.0, Solomon Islands 6.7 6 July. East Cape 4.1 7 July. Mexico 6.9, 8 July. South of Fiordland 4.4, North of East Cape 4.1, West of Taumarunui 4.0, Vanuatu 6.3 9 July. Kermadecs 4.9 10 July. North of East Cape 4.3, 4.5, East Cape 4.4, North of White Island 4.0 The big Kermadecs quakes on 24 June have produced the expected 26 June Eketahuna and Taranaki Bight quakes. The 28-29 June forecast period resulted in elevated Mag 3+ activity in NZ on 28 June and a big global hit on 29-30 June which has run on into July. A major push in the SW Pacific (Kermadecs, Vanuatu, Tonga, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands) wasn't forecasted by this service. The swing from large steady equatorial activity from October-June to the spaced mid latitude quakes is deepening dramatically now. Astute observers will have also noted matching global wild weather in the past few days as standard meteorologists scramble to modify their forecasts. Volcanoes elevated but nothing major.