Pacific Summary. 1 April 2019 - 12 April 2019

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Magnitude 6 risk locations are New Zealand, South of Kermadec Islands, Kermadec Islands, Tonga, New Britain, Eastern Papua New Guinea, Banda Sea, Ceram Sea, Southern Molucca Sea, Northern Sumatra, Myanmar, Eastern Himalaya, Marianas Trench, Eastern Kamchatka Peninsula, El Salvador, Afghanistan.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Manam, Agung, Bromo, Sakurajima, Asosan, Shiveluch, Popocatepetl, Fuego, Pacaya, San Cristobal, Sangay, Planchon-Peteroa, Mauna Loa.
Mauna Loa confidence=low.
Possibility Mag 7 Pacific.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 29 March 1.00pm
29 March.
Offshore Southeast Kamchatka Peninsula 6.1 11.06am
Eruption Manam, Agung, Bromo, Sakurajima, Popocateptl.
Solar quake and eruption driving conditions have arrived on cue.
Good location success so far, the offshore Kamchatka 6.1 was felt only by a few walruses.
Small eruptions are ongoing at many volcanos and easy forecast picks.
Activity at Mauna Loa may pick up later in the period or in following periods.
Eastern Honshu, Southeast of Honshu are added to Mag 6 risk locations.

Update. 31 March 12.30pm
30 March.
Southwest Indian Ocean/Carlsberg Ridge 5.9 5.27pm
Eruption Planchon-Peteroa, Fuego.
31 March.
New Britain 6.2 12.20am
Solar quake driving conditions have weakened during the period but may increase again late on 1 April.
Typical isolated quake activity has matched the solar conditions during the period.
Location success just after midnight at New Britain is giving some real substance to the forecast and keeping the sceptics at bay.
Moderate eruptions at many volcanos are ongoing from previous periods and no brainers as forecast picks.
Activity on the major quake migration track into Mauna Loa has picked up dramatically during the period.
The forecasters are now watching developments with great interest at the massive Hawaii volcano.
The volcano is extremely unlikely to erupt during the present forecast period but following forecast periods, especially around mid-April could see the arrival of quakes under the summit at Mauna Loa and an announcement by USGS seismologists monitoring the volcano.
Exciting times lie ahead at Mauna Loa.
The forecast period is extended to 1 April when conditions may pick up late in the day.
Risk locations are unchanged so the map is retained.

Update. 2 April 1.00am
31 March. Ecuador 6.2 8.04pm
1 April.
Nicobar Islands 5.5 9.11pm
A large quake swarm is underway at Nicobar Islands.
Solar conditions are picking up again late on 1 April.
More big quakes seem likely at NIcobar Islands or further north in Myanmar.
Bolivia, Iran, Western Turkey are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
Possibility Mag 7 Pacific.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.
Note. An updated forecast map can't be downloaded onto due to a technical error but can be seen on the Facebook link or at Facebook/Roary Arbon.

Update. 3 April 11.00pm
2 April.
Southwest Indian Ocean/Carlsberg Ridge 6.0 7.39am
3 April.
Rat Islands 6.5 10.35am
Solar conditions have picked up on 3 April and look set to continue strongly on 4 April.
Possibilty Mag 7 Pacific.
Volcanos have gone quiet during the period.
A major switch to quakes may be underway.
No damage from the Rat Islands 6.5 unless you are a walrus...the region is remote.
Southern Chile, Bali are added to Mag 6 risk locations.

Update. 5 April 12.00pm
4 April.
Myanmar 5.3 8.45pm
Eruption Krakatau, Kerinci, Agung.
5 April.
Eastern Turkey 5.3 6.31am
Pacific quakes dropped back to Mag 5 on 4/5 April.
The biggest at Myanmar and Turkey are in risk locations.
Minor eruptions continue in the very hot Java Volcanic Zone.
Agung has let off a decent "small" eruption and may have confused the forecasters who gave Bali as Mag 6 quake risk.
Eruptions at Krakatau are unspectacular at present due to the crater being under sea level.
The 22 December eruption and tsunami at Krakatau blew the top off the volcano, flooding the crater with seawater which now has a blanketing effect on eruptions.
Classic Little Ice Age mild solar windstreams continue through the period with more due about now.
The forecast period is extended to 5 April.
Mauna Loa is quiet and highly unlikely to erupt during the period...following periods may bring action at the worlds biggest volcano.

Update. 8 April 10.00am
6 April.
South Sandwich Islands 6.5 5.14am
Eruption Michael.
7 April.
West Banda Sea 6.3 9.55am
A switch from volcanos to quakes seems to have taken place during the period.
Many eruptions during the period have been very moderate as the energy is shared between quakes and volcanos.
South Sandwich Islands 6.5 was matched by the eruption of Michael, one volcano at the remote sub Antarctic islands.
The very deep West Banda Sea 6.3 gave good risk location success and could be a precursor for more Indonesian action during the last day or two of the forecast period.
Solar quake driving conditions are weakening today but Little Ice Age conditions typically bring late action so a late quake is possible.
The forecast period is extended to 8 April.
Higher risk locations are Indonesia, South Sandwich Islands. Location confidence=low.

Update. 9 April 9.00am
Pacific quakes were under Mag 6 on 8 April.
Eruptions were subdued.
Solar conditions are just on the quake driving threshold today.
Quakes are likely to become very isolated.
Conditions may persist for several days with a slight pickup on 12 April.
Higher risk Mag 6 locations are Indonesia, Southern Chile, Nicobar Islands. Confidence=low.

Update. 10 April 1.30pm
7 April.
Eruption Villarrica
10 April.
South Sandwich Islands 6.5 6.54am
The 8 April addition of South Sandwich Islands to Mag 6 risk locations has paid off.
The second South Sandwich Islands 6.5 quake in two days has occurred.
Additionally, the addition of infrequently forecasted Southern Chile as a quake hotspot has had an interesting outcome with the eruption of Villarrica.
A persistent slow solar windstream continues today as forecasted and is bringing the occasional big quake and keeping volcanos hot.
A slight pickup is still expected on 12 April.
Southern Chile still seems to be a hotspot.
Pacific quakes are possible but likely to be very isolated on 10/11 April.
A large sunspot crossing the solar disc could become active in a few days and affect Earth but it needs to develop into a more powerful delta classification.

Summary.
29 March.
Offshore Southeast Kamchatka Peninsula 6.1 11.06am
Eruption Manam, Agung, Bromo, Sakurajima, Popocateptl.
30 March.
Southwest Indian Ocean/Carlsberg Ridge 5.9 5.27pm
Eruption Planchon-Peteroa, Fuego.
31 March.
New Britain 6.2 12.20am
Ecuador 6.2 8.04pm
1 April.
Nicobar Islands 5.5 9.11pm
2 April.
Southwest Indian Ocean/Carlsberg Ridge 6.0 7.39am
3 April.
Rat Islands 6.5 10.35am
4 April.
Myanmar 5.3 8.45pm
Eruption Krakatau, Kerinci, Agung.
5 April.
Eastern Turkey 5.3 6.31am
6 April.
South Sandwich Islands 6.5 5.14am
Eruption Michael.
7 April.
West Banda Sea 6.3 9.55am
Eruption Villarrica
10 April.
South Sandwich Islands 6.5 6.54am
11 April.
Northeast of Honshu 6.1 8.18pm
12 April.
East of Sulawesi 6.8 11.40pm
The period began back on 29 March and has become a typically very long lasting solar windstream with a long sequence of following quakes and eruptions.
The 29 March Kamchatka 6.1 was just south of the target zone.
Moderate eruptions in Indonesia and Latin America continued throughout the period and easy forecast picks.
The extent of eruptions is way beyond the activity observed in recent years and a signal for the future and the unfolding Little Ice Age.
Quakes continued on 31 March at New Britain 6.2.
The Ecuador 6.2 seems to have confused the forecasters who were looking for an eruption of Reventador but got a big quake instead.
The 6 April South Sandwich Islands 6.5 prompted an update to include the location in the next days.
The 10 April South Sandwich Islands 6.5 justified the inclusion.
The forecast wasn't updated from 10 April as the long lived solar windstream driving the action finally faded.
Residual quakes, the Honshu 6.1 and the biggest quake of the summary period, the offshore Sulawesi 6.8 gave good location success.
The eruption forecast for Mauna Loa had mixed success.
Mauna Loa became very active as the forecast period began but then went quiet so the eruption forecast was withdrawn to a later date.
Near neighbour to Mauna Loa, Hualalai then became active on 14 April with a Mag 5.2 near the summit.
Shallow quakes at the summit of Mauna Loa also picked up at the same time.
Mauna Loa and Hualalai erupted together in 1800 so another twin eruption seems possible in 2019.
The period was also very significant in New Zealand due to the slow slip quake event in Gisborne and the related heating up of Ruapehu.
New Zealand probably faces significant quake and eruption activity in 2019.
Local Mag 6 risk wasn't justified during the forecast period but there was plenty of action all the same.

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