Aotearoa Summary. 2 April 2019 - 11 April 2019

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Magnitude 5 risk locations are Snares Islands, Fiordland, Wairarapa, Northern Hawkes Bay, Wairoa, Mahia Peninsula, Gisborne, Northeast of East Cape, East Cape, White Island, Opotiki, Whakatane, Rotorua, Murupara, Tokoroa, Taupo, Taumarunui.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Seddon, Cape Campbell, North of Cape Campbell, North of D'Urville Island.
Volcanoes quiet.
Masterton is higher risk.
Possibility Mag 6 New Zealand. Mag 6 confidence=low.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.
Note. A forecast map can't be downloaded due to a technical error but can be seen on the Facebook link to this site or Facebook/Roary Arbon.

Update. 3 April 10.30am
The forecast period is extended to 3 April.
An updated map will be posted tonight.

Update. 3 April 10.00pm
3 April.
10km East of Mahia Peninsula 4.6 2.42pm
Solar conditions have picked up again today and are high tonight.
The forecast period is extended to 4 April.
Murchison is added to Mag 4 risk locations.
Mag 6 New Zealand risk remains.
East Coast North Island is the obvious hotspot after two days of very busy but small magnitude quakes at Gisborne and East of Mahia.
Masterton is higher risk. Location confidence=low.
Be careful.

Update. 5 April 11.00am
5 April.
Gisborne 3.6 7.35am
Northeast of White Island 4.1 8.44am
Local quakes were under Mag 4 on 4 April, picking up today as new solar conditions are about to arrive.
The lack of big quakes is no reflection of conditions.
A huge Mag 2 quake swarm is ongoing just east of Mahia Peninsula.
The forecasters have never seen a swarm like this since observations began in 2012.
Additionally, the area just northwest of Gisborne is also very busy.
If that isn't enough, the ongoing four month Mag 4/5 quake swarm south of the Kermadec Islands has suddenly ended.
The most likely possibility is that a big slow slip quake event is underway in the Gisborne area.
Slow slip quakes release all the energy with a long series of small quakes over several weeks rather than one big quake lasting a few seconds.
The sudden quake dropout south of the Kermadecs may be related.
The forecasters aren't trying to get too clever so have retained the Mag 6 low confidence forecast for 5/6 April.
New solar conditions are due about now.
Be careful.

Update. 7 April 9.00am
6 April.
Northeast of Waipukurau 4.1 1.16am
Southwest of Snares Islands 4.3 2.29am
South of Kermadecs 5.0 10.33am
7 April.
Doubtful Sound 5.2 1.42am
Quakes have picked up strongly as the long lived solar windstream, typical of Little Ice Ages, continues on 7 April.
The windstream is fading today but the forecast is extended to at least 7 April.
Quakes tend to come late in forecast periods since the Little Ice Age began around the time of the two New Zealand Mag 7 quakes in 2016.
South of Kermadec quakes have picked up again today after completely dropping out for several days during the Gisborne slow slip event.
Risk locations and magnitudes are maintained on 7 April.
Quakes are likely to be isolated.
Fiordland, South Wairarapa are higher risk.
Possibility Mag 6 New Zealand remains. Mag 6 confidence=low.
Note. Apologies. The forecast wasn't updated on 6 April due to the rugby.
The Pacific forecast is extended to 7 April and will be updated later. Nicobar Islands, Myanmar are higher risk.
Be careful.

Update. 8 April 10.00am
7 April.
South of Kermadecs 5.2 7.02pm
Quakes are becoming isolated as the end of the forecast period nears.
Spaceweather conditions are on the threshold and falling today but still strong enough to drive a late quake.
South of Kermadecs quakes have resumed as the Gisborne slow slip event weakens....interesting.
A moderate Turangi quake swarm has begun today but probably won't last.
The forecast period is extended to 8 April.
Quakes, if any, are likely to be isolated.
Fiordland, Tutoko are higher risk locations.

Update. 9 April 9.30am
Local quakes were under Mag 4 on 8 April.
Solar conditions are right on the threshold for driving quakes and likely to persist ahead of a slight pickup 12 April.
Local quakes are likely to be very isolated on 9 April.
The period has been very active in New Zealand so it is too soon to drop the forecast.
Mag 6 seems unlikely but residual quakes seem possible.
Fiordland, Tutoko, Wairarapa are higher risk locations. Confidence=low.

Update. 10 April 12.30pm
Local quakes were under Mag 4 on 9 April.
Weak but persistent solar windstreams continue today.
The forecasters are slightly reluctant to drop the forecast, despite local quakes falling away.
New Zealand is a Pacific Mag 6 risk location during the period so a small chance still exists for an isolated big quake here.
The Gisborne slow slip quake event is easing today which may lessen the likelihood of a big North Island quake.
Fiordland, Tutoko is still showing some quake precursor activity.
Residual quakes seem possible in Fiordland, Tutoko ahead of a possible quake pickup on 12 April.
Big sunspot AR12738 is crossing the solar disc today but needs to develop into a more active delta classification to be any threat to Earth.

Summary.
3 April.
10km East of Mahia Peninsula 4.6 2.42pm
5 April.
Gisborne 3.6 7.35am
Northeast of White Island 4.1 8.44am
6 April.
Northeast of Waipukurau 4.1 1.16am
Southwest of Snares Islands 4.3 2.29am
South of Kermadecs 5.0 10.33am
7 April.
Doubtful Sound 5.2 1.42am
7 April.
South of Kermadecs 5.2 7.02pm
11 April.
South of Kermadecs 5.0 11.50am
Southwest of Snares Islands 4.9 2.19pm
A long lived solar windstream has defined a long and very busy forecast period.
Mag 5/6 risk in the North Island wasn't justified during the period.
A slow slip event event near Gisborne gave good location success but slow slip events don't usually bring big quakes just lots of small ones.
Regardless, Mag 5 came to Fiordland during the period, the first mainland Mag 5 for a while.
New Zealand was under pressure during the period.
Vulcanologists at Ruapehu have announced that Ruapehu is hot and getting hotter fast. The lake is 42C and heating up 0.5C every day.
45C is their estimate for an eruption.
No lake temperature data available to the public.
A Kermadecs undersea eruption may have occurred approximately 4 April which fits with the heating at Ruapehu.
The period has been extremely busy and looks set to continue for a few days.
A new map for 12 April onwards is being processed.

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