Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service

Aotearoa Summary. 11 May 2019 - 15 May 2019

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Magnitude 5 risk locations are South of Kermadec Islands, East Cape, Tolaga Bay.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Opotiki, Tauranga, Rotorua, Murupara, Taupo, Tokoroa, Taumarunui, Wairoa, Waipukurau, Porangahau, Dannevirke, Masterton, Seddon, Cape Campbell, Kaikoura, Seaward Kaikouras, Culverden, Christchurch, Rolleston, Upper Rakaia, Doubtful Sound.
Quakes are likely to be infrequent.
Volcanos quiet.

Update. 12 May 5.00pm
12 May.
North of East Cape 5.4 4.06am
Heavy action not far north of New Zealand has arrived.
Additionally, the April Gisborne slow slip event has resumed.
The April event was already the largest in seven years.
Large quakes have followed these events in the past often by several months, notably the 4 September 2010 Darfield 7.0.
The possibility for a large quake in New Zealand in 2019 is increasing.
Solar conditions are jumping around with the sunspot activity so the forecast period is extended to 13 May.

Update. 14 May 6.30pm
13 May.
South of Kermadecs 5.1 2.11pm
14 May.
South of Kermadecs 5.0 12.01am
Solar conditions and quakes weakened on 13 May, following big quake action north of New Zealand.
Solar conditions are jumping around strongly with the passing of two moderate sunspots, AR12740 and AR12741.
Effects from these sunspots are increasing tonight and likely to build up to a strong peak on 19 May, Full Moon.
Strong weather may occur during this period.
Risk locations are unchanged from the start of the forecast period.
Possibility Mag 6 East Cape may increase from 16 May.
Volcanos quiet.

Summary.
12 May.
North of East Cape 5.4 4.06am
13 May.
South of Kermadecs 5.1 2.11pm
14 May.
South of Kermadecs 5.0 12.01am
East of Mahia Peninsula 5.2 11.16pm
Mag 5 quakes moved into New Zealand during the period.
Sunspot activity created a brief but very strong storm on 14 May.
Quakes soon followed. Mahia 5.2 and an hour later the New Ireland 7.5.
More solar storm action, possibly bigger, is due late 16 May.
New map with similar risk locations but higher Magnitude risk for 16 May.