Pacific Summary. 11 May 2019 - 16 May 2019
Volcanic activity may increase. Asosan. Quakes are likely to be infrequent. Update. 12 May 4.30pm 11 May. Northern Vanuatu 5.3 2.53am Iran 5.3 10.28pm Eruption Manam 12 May. North of New Zealand 5.4 4.06am Solar conditions arrived on cue. Sunspots AR12740 and AR12741 are Earth facing and influencing the solar wind. These conditions may persist for a few days as the sunspots slowly move around the solar disk. Quake response was weak on 11 May, a typical Little Ice Age effect. Good location success in Iran and North of New Zealand regardless of the low magnitude. A new slow slip event at Gisborne/Mahia has begun just weeks after the strongest slow slip Gisborne event for seven years. More action North of New Zealand or East Cape seems possible next days as this heavy movement continues. Nicaragua is added to Mag 6 risk locations. Colima is added to volcanos. Note. Regular ongoing eruptions at Agung, Merapi, Bromo, Sakurajima aren't forecasted at present. The forecasters are concentrating on new eruptions to reduce forecasting workload and declutter the forecast map. The forecast period is extended to 13 May. Update. 14 May 7.30pm 12 May. Costa Rica 6.1 7.24pm Eruption Agung. The addition of Nicaragua to risk locations came just three hours before the nearby Costa Rica 6.1. A short but significant eruption at Agung blew rocks out for up to 3 km, according to some locals at the Bali volcano. Steady eruptive activity at Agung is ongoing and generating a lot of interest so the forecasters have decided to re-introduce Agung as a forecast location again. Another moderately explosive eruption at Agung seems likely near Full Moon on 19 May. Solar conditions are jumping around all over the place today with the passing of sunspots AR12740 and AR12741 across the solar disk. Solar conditions are expected to build up from 15 May to a peak on 19 May, Full Moon. Nicaragua remains Mag 6 risk. Northern Papua New Guinea, Banda Sea, Southern Peru are added to Mag 6 risk locations. Possibility Mag 7 Pacific may increase from 16 May. Agung, Karymsky are added to volcanos. Eruptions may increase from 16 May. Update. 16 May 1.00am 15 May. New Ireland 7.5 12.58am Eruption Manam. Mag 7 risk is justified on 15 May with good location success. This is the second Mag 7 in the PNG area in just a few days. Additionally, Manam has erupted twice in the period. Bismarck Sea is hot. The solar storm from sunspot AR12741 has eased on 15 May and quakes are quieter today. A second solar storm is due late 16 May and may be stronger than the earlier storm. More Mag 7 quakes and possible large eruptions seem possible next days. New Britain, Bismarck Sea, Northern Papua New Guinea are higher Mag 7 risk. Low possibility Mag 8 Bismarck Sea. Confidence = low. New Zealand, Northern Sumatra, Iran, Okinawa, Mexico are added to Mag 6 risk locations. Sinabung, Manam, Agung are added to volcanos. Summary. 11 May. Northern Vanuatu 5.3 2.53am Iran 5.3 10.28pm Eruption Manam 12 May. North of New Zealand 5.4 4.06am 12 May. Costa Rica 6.1 7.24pm Eruption Agung. 15 May. New Ireland 7.5 12.58am Eruption Manam. 16 May. New Ireland 5.7 1.23pm A major solar storm from sunspot AR12471 has brought Mag 7 to the Pacific and a couple of explosive eruptions at Agung and Manam. A second major solar storm from the disintegrating sunspot is due to arrive late 16 May. A new forecast map is offered for 17 May. New Ireland, New Britain, Bougainville are hotspots. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
