Aotearoa Summary. 16 May 2019 - 21 May 2019
Magnitude 5 risk locations are Waipukurau, Dannevirke, Porangahau, Eketahuna, Masterton. Magnitude 4 risk locations are Wairoa, Northern Hawkes Bay, Opotiki, Rotorua, Tokoroa, Taumarunui, Lake Wairarapa, North of D'Urville Island, Murchison, Nancy Sound, George Sound. A strong solar storm may arrive late on 16 May. A major Pacific quake spell is already underway and could increase with the new solar conditions. The forecast period is likely to be extended. Be careful. Update. 17 May 1.30am 16 May. Tasman Glacier 3.6 5.42pm Upper Waitaha River 4.1 11.03pm Solar conditions are quiet. A possible major solar storm is due about now. The big solar forecast Services NASA etc. are all forecasting the same storm but a day earlier than this Service. They will be wondering where the storm has gone. Pressure in the Southern Alps today at Mt Cook and further north near yesterdays risk location at Upper Rakaia River. Upper Rakaia River was dropped as Mag 4 risk from yesterdays forecast as the focus moves to East Cape. Upper Waitaha River is only a days walk from the Upper Rakaia for a fit hiker... Murphys Law. More Mag 4 quakes are possible at Upper Waitaha River on 17 May. Heavy pressure seems to be showing across New Zealand, making for very difficult location forecasting. Heating is underway on the Volcanic Plateau. A minor steam eruption is possible at White Island during the period. The forecast period is likely to be extended to 19 May. Be careful. Update. 18 May 12.00am Local quakes were quiet on 17 May. No sign of the forecasted possible major solar storm. The storm may be slow moving due to its filamentary origin so an arrival could still happen on 18 May. Quakes could be modulated to low tide as full moon on 19 May approaches. Be careful. Update. 19 May 2.00pm 18 May. Porangahau 4.1 6.07pm Low tide 11.09pm 19 May. North of D'Urville Island 4.1 1.18am Low tide 3.54am Spaceweather is unsettled today but no sign of a major solar storm...or any storm. Quakes will be more subdued and lower magnitude without solar driving conditions. Regardless of the lack of solar storms, local Mag 4 quakes have fallen in risk locations, giving the forecast some credit. A solar storm is increasingly unlikely on 19 May but slightly elevated background solar conditions are still present from active sunspot AR12741. Mag 6 quakes seem unlikely without strong solar drivers. Mag 5 remains a possibility in Wairarapa, including Masterton. Full moon isn't showing much correlation to low tide quakes so far in the period. Isolated Mag 4/5 quakes are possible 19/20 May as solar conditions slowly fade away. Summary. 16 May. Tasman Glacier 3.6 5.42pm Upper Waitaha River 4.1 11.03pm 18 May. Porangahau 4.1 6.07pm Low tide 11.09pm 19 May. North of D'Urville Island 4.1 1.18am Low tide 3.54am 20 May. South of Kermadecs 5.0 1.29am White Island Mag 2/3 quake swarm. Turangi Mag 2 swarm. North of East Cape 4.1 11.24pm 21 May. South of Kermadecs 5.1 7.05am This forecast period began with a big solar storm and Pacific Mag 7, prompting local high magnitude risk. A second possibly even larger solar storm never arrived and magnitude risks were lowered as a result late in the period. White Island was raised as a steam eruption risk. A Mag 2/3 quake swarm followed. No data on any steam eruption. Volcanic Plateau unsurprisingly heated and a long quake swarm is still underway at Turangi as this summary is posted. The Upper Waitaha 4.1 was frustratingly close to the Upper Rakaia River risk location given for the previous day. The period started with a Mag 7 Pacific quake and then went very volcanic which is slightly reflected in the Aotearoa summary. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
