Pacific Summary. 17 May 2019 - 20 May 2019

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Magnitude 7 risk location is North Solomon Sea/South of New Ireland/East of New Britain/West of Bougainville.
Magnitude 6 risk locations are New Zealand, Kermadec Islands, Northern Sumatra, North Molucca Sea, Offshore Oregon, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Atacama.
Volcanic activity may increase.
Manam, Agung, Krakatau, Sinabung, Asosan, Karymsky, Pavlof, Colima.
A possible major solar storm could bring strong eruptions at Java Volcano Zone.
The forecast period is likely to be extended.

Update. 18 May 12.00am
17 May.
Nicaragua 5.8 4.22am
No sign of the expected big solar storm on 17 May.
Past experience indicates that filamentary storms are often very slow moving and could still be on its way.
Quakes and eruptions are quiet along with the quiet space weather.
Good location success from the biggest Pacific quake on 17 May.
The forecast period is extended to 18 May.
Approaching full moon on 19 May in conjunction with a potential strong solar storm could create a Mag 7 quake or big eruption.

Update. 19 May 1.40pm
18 May.
Southern New Ireland 6.0 10.37am
Eruption Agung, Krakatau, Shiveluch.
19 May.
South of Vanuatu 6.2 1.32pm
The non arrival of the forecasted solar storm has kept quakes moderate and eruptions limited.
Solar conditions have still been slightly elevated, regardless of the missing storm, due to active sunspot AR12471.
Quakes and eruptions are mostly in risk locations, giving some credit to the forecast.
High magnitude is now unlikely without strong solar drivers.
The late night eruption of Agung apparently got most of Bali out of bed as the unsettled volcano threw ash and rocks for a couple of kilometers with a loud bang.
Java Volcano Zone is hot with a moderate eruption at Krakatau during the period.
A late arrival of the missing solar storm is increasingly unlikely on 19 May.
Full moon modulation may increase any residual solar activity as the period fades away.
Isolated Pacific Mag 6 quakes are possible on 19 May, Mag 7 seems unlikely.
Further explosive eruptions are possible at Agung and Krakatau on 19-20 May.
Agung is higher eruption risk at 20 May 4.30am Bali Local Time. Full Moon and low tide.
The South of Vanuatu 6.2 has arrived as this update is posted.

Summary.
17 May.
Nicaragua 5.8 4.22am
18 May.
Southern New Ireland 6.0 10.37am
Eruption Agung, Krakatau, Shiveluch.
19 May.
South of Vanuatu 6.2 1.32pm
20 May.
South of Vanuatu 6.1 2.27am
South of Vanuatu 6.2 2.56am
This forecast was assembled on the notion that a major solar storm could bring major quakes but the solar storm never arrived.
No major quakes during the period but some excellent location success.
The Southern New Ireland 6.0 was right on the edge of the very specific Northern Solomon Sea Mag 7 risk location.
The Nicaragua 5.8 was also in a risk location and good success given that very few risk locations were offered in the forecast.
This will keep the sceptics quiet for a while.
The 18 May Full Moon Agung eruption met the forecast outlook and was explosive but fortunately brief.
Solar conditions faded away on 20 May.

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