Aotearoa Summary. 1 June 2019 - 5 June 2019

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Aotearoa Forecast. 31 May - 1 June, 2019.

Magnitude 5 risk locations are South of Kermadec Islands, Atiamuri, South of Taranaki, Waipukurau, Dannevirke, Eketuhuna, Porangahau.
Magnitude 4 risk locations are East Cape, Offshore Mahia, Wairoa, White Island, Rotorua, Taupo, Taumarunui, Eastern Taranaki, Upper Rakaia, Upper Waitaha, Lower Godley River.
Possible minor steam eruption White Island.
The period is likely to be extended.

Update. 1 June 1.00am
31 May.
North of East Cape 4.3 10.14am
North of East Cape 4.3 12.32pm
Moderate solar conditions have driven equatorial Pacific action but New Zealand is quiet so far during the period.
The week long White Island quake swarm has ended for now.
Solar conditions are fading on 1 June but may have enough energy to drive a late isolated quake.
Risk locations and Magnitudes are unchanged.
Volcanic Plateau and Bay of Plenty are hotspots.

Summary.
31 May.
North of East Cape 4.3 10.14am
North of East Cape 4.3 12.32pm
1 June.
South of Kermadecs 5.0 5.55am
North of East Cape 4.4 7.09pm
3 June.
Tokoroa 4.0 7.15am
North of East Cape 4.0 10.46am
North of East Cape 4.6 3.08pm
4 June.
100km Northeast of East Cape 5.4 5.24am USGS
90km North of East Cape 4.2 12.31pm
20km North of Rotorua 4.3 2.21pm
Southeast of Gisborne 4.1 5.53pm
Mag 2 swarm Atiamuri
5 June.
North of East Cape 4.2 10.38am
North of East Cape 4.6 12.55pm
Hawera 4.1 4.26pm
North of East Cape 4.7 8.25pm
The forecast period began on cue with only moderate spaceweather.
Quakes quickly arrived north of New Zealand.
Spaceweather faded on 1 June, quakes faded and the forecast was dropped.
Moderate spaceweather arrived unexpectedly early 4 June and the East Cape 5.4 soon followed.
Quakes continued in risk location hotspots as earlier.
The week long White Island Mag 3 quake swarm ended early in the period but a new swarm started at Atiamuri.
The very large April Gisborne slow slip event was a good indicator that big tectonic action is just around the corner in New Zealand.
Previous slow slip events have been precursors for large quakes.
September, October, November seem more likely for a bigger local quake as the solar connection increases with the spring aurora season.
A new forecast period begins 10 June.


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