Aotearoa Summary. 10 June 2019 - 13 June 2019
Magnitude 4 risk locations are Pyke River, Cascade River, Paringa, Murchison, North of D'Urville Island, South of Hawera, Northern Cook Strait, Eketahuna, Dannevirke, Waipukurau, Porangahau, Northeast of East Cape. Volcanos quiet. Update. 11 June 1.00am 10 June. Big Bay 4.0 10.26pm The solar conditions forecasted for 10 June actually arrived unexpectedly a day early on 9 June, a forecasting mistake. Solar conditions are quiet as the 9 June spaceweather fades away. Local quakes are mostly quiet. Spaceweather uncertainties on 11-12 June exist, solar conditions may arrive and create quakes. Quakes are likely to be very isolated or absent 11-12 June. Spaceweather is likely to pick up again late 13 June. Leaving Volcanic Plateau and Bay of Plenty out of risk locations as the forecast chases action further south in Wairarapa and Taranaki Bight is low confidence. A major planetary alignment, the Opposition of Jupiter occurs today and may interest some Observers although evidence for alignments creating quakes is uncertain and never part of any forecast to date...but it always pays to keep an open mind. Update. 12 June 10.00am 11 June. North of East Cape 4.0 3.26am Big Bay 4.0 4.48am North of East Cape 5.0 7.20am North of East Cape 4.4 11.46pm 12 June. Turangi Mag 1 swarm. Solar conditions have remained quiet during the period. Quakes are quiet in response to the quiet solar conditions. A slight possibility still exists for a brief burst of spaceweather 12-13 June, ahead of a moderate pickup 14 June. Despite quakes continuing north of New Zealand during the period, overall quake activity has declined since the April Gisborne slow slip event. Ongoing quakes from the slow slip are likely to show up during the spring aurora season when the Sun-Earth magnetic link strengthens. Shallow quake swarms are still indicating pressure on the Volcanic Plateau and seismic data indicates minor volcanic activity somewhere along the Kermadec undersea volcanic chain. Quakes are likely to be absent unless the low confidence outlook for a brief spaceweather burst is borne out. Summary. 10 June. Big Bay 4.0 10.26pm 11 June. North of East Cape 4.0 3.26am Big Bay 4.0 4.48am North of East Cape 5.0 7.20am North of East Cape 4.4 11.46pm 12 June. Turangi Mag 1 swarm. North of East Cape 4.2 1.01pm North of East Cape 4.0 3.24pm 13 June. North of East Cape 4.9 4.48pm This forecast suffered the same fate as the Pacific forecast. Spaceweather arrived earlier than expected and the 9 June Big Bay 4.9 arrived during this time. Big Bay wasn't likely to be a risk location if the forecasters had kept ahead of the action. Solar conditions were never strong during the period. The risky decision to leave Volcanic Plateau out of risk locations was justified. Regardless, heavy action up to Mag 5 is still underway north of New Zealand although less than before the March/April Gisborne slow slip event. No indication that the Opposition of Jupiter had any effect on quakes. Planetary influence on quakes seems possible in Electric Universe physics theory but less important than lunar influence and much less important than the main quake driver, the sun. New solar conditions are here as this summary is posted and a new forecast is being processed. Aotearoa Earthquake and Volcano Forecast Service © 2013 - 2024 |
