Pacific Summary. 10 June 2019 - 13 June 2019
Volcanic activity may increase.
Agung, Krakatau, Sinabung, Kurikomayama, Midagahara.
Update. 11 June 12.00am
This forecast has become complicated and should have been posted a day earlier on 9 June.
The solar conditions which arrived unexpectedly on 9 June, driving the Sinabung and Agung eruptions have faded away and no new spaceweather has arrived on 10 June.
Japanese volcanos Kurikomayama and Midagahara are withdrawn as eruption risks.
The Sinabung eruption was substantial and is plotted on the map to reflect the spaceweather on 9 June.
The Agung eruption was a small ash puff and the first eruption since 31 May (see 31 May-5 June Pacific Summary)
Solar conditions are uncertain next two days.
Minor spaceweather may arrive 11-12 June, followed by a more certain solar pickup late 13 June.
Quakes and eruptions are likely to be isolated or absent 11-12 June but increasing from late 13 June.
Planetary alignments never formed part of any forecast from this Service but a major alignment, the Opposition of Jupiter occurs today.
Regardless, the forecasters always keep an open mind around planetary alignments as secondary drivers of tectonic activity, despite little evidence so far.
Update. 12 June 12.00pm
Spaceweather is quiet with no sign yet of any forecasted low confidence minor solar conditions.
Pacific quakes are quiet as a result of the weak solar conditions.
The South Banda Sea 5.5 was the biggest Pacific quake on 11 June and gives some credit at least to risk locations.
The period appears to be volcanic with a decent eruption at Sinabung and a new eruption at Piton de la Fournaise.
Agung is silent following the 10 June eruption and unlikely to erupt today unless the low confidence spaceweather turns up.
Solar activity is likely to moderately increase 14 June which may bring Agung to life.
Despite much interest in Agung and thousands of speculative eruption forecasts on Internet, the eruptions at Agung are weak.
The crater is plugged with lava, causing a buildup of pressure and eventually an explosive release, throwing ash and lava blocks but just a little puff on the volcano eruption scale.
Tonga, Kermadec Islands are added to Mag 6 risk locations.
South Banda Sea 5.5 4.59am
Eruption Piton de la Fournaise
The period was very volcanic with multiple eruptions.
Solar conditions arrived early and the eruption of Sinabung came before a forecast was posted.
The Agung eruption came after 10 days of silence and was very moderate but good timing success.
A mild eruption at Krakatau completed an active volcanic period, especially in Indonesia.
Pacific quakes were infrequent and never reached Mag 6.
The South Banda Sea 5.5 was the biggest quake during the period and good location success from a very small number of risk locations.
The eruption of Piton de la Fournaise was brief, lasting just two days.
Spaceweather was difficult to forecast during the period, arriving earlier than expected.
The low confidence outlook for mild spaceweather on 11-12 June was justified...conditions never arrived.
Brief, moderate solar conditions forecasted for 14 June are here as this summary is posted and a new forecast is being processed.
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